Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Prediction & Best Bets (December 6th, 2025)
The 2025 MAC title is on the line this weekend, as the Miami Ohio RedHawks enter Ford Field as +110 underdogs against the Western Michigan Broncos.
Western Michigan finished in first place in the MAC during the regular season, with Miami (OH) edging out Ohio and Toledo despite finishing in a three-way tie for second place.
The Broncos will be extremely mild 2.5-point favorites at home, where they have gone 5-1 in 2025. This will be the second meeting between these two sides this season, as Miami (OH) took down the Broncos (26-17) earlier this year.
Miami (OH) and Western Michigan are poor bets to punch a ticket to the College Football Playoffs, so they’ll have to settle for beating a rival and winning the MAC.
Given the tight spread, this will be a tough game to call, which means you could use some help. Join me as I inspect the latest pricing and work my way to a Miami Ohio vs. Western Michigan prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Miami (OH) RedHawks (7-5) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (8-4)
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 6th, with kickoff at 11:00 am CT (12:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Team Record
- Miami (OH) is 7-5, 6-2 in the MAC.
- Western Michigan is 8-4, 7-1 in the MAC.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Miami Ohio vs. Western Michigan odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Miami (OH) | +1.5 (-105) | +102 | Over 43.5 (-105) |
Western Michigan | -1.5 (-115) | -120 | Under 43.5 (-115) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
These two teams are longtime rivals, having faced off a remarkable 112 times already. It’s been a fairly competitive series, although the RedHawks hold a 56-44-2 lead.
Miami (OH) has been the aggressor recently, too. The RedHawks won the most recent meeting earlier this year, and they won (34-21) in 2023. Western Michigan had been on a heater prior to that, securing wins in eight consecutive games dating back to 2006.
The MAC title game will go down at Ford Field, where Western Michigan is 5-1 on the year. They have done well at home in this series, going 4-1 in the last five home games against the RedHawks.
Why This Game Matters
It’s the MAC title game. Neither of these teams are likely to make it to the College Football Playoffs, but they sure can have the ultimate bragging rights within their conference.
This is also a storied rivalry. MAC title or not, both sides want to win and end the MAC season on a high note.
Team Profiles
Miami Ohio RedHawks
The RedHawks did not always appear destined to play for the MAC title. They got shutout in their first game against Wisconsin, and proceeded to begin 2025 at 0-3.
Miami Ohio definitely found their footing, however, as they smoked Lindenwood 38-0 for their first win, which kickstarted a five-game winning streak. They did lose a tight game to Ohio and got blasted by Toledo, but finished the regular season strong with big wins over Buffalo and Ball State.
Those wins reminded everyone that Miami (OH) is one of the better teams in the conference, and on Saturday, they have a chance to prove they’re #1.
The RedHawks have been mostly good during their 7-2 run over their last nine games, but here’s a quick peek at where they’ve stood out the most:
- Finish the Job: Miami (OH) has a decent offense that puts up 25 points per game, but they really excel at finishing drives. They score 89% of the time once they cross the 20, which is 31st in the country.
- Protect the Ball: The RedHawks don’t blow you away offensively, but they sure are disciplined and avoid silly mistakes. Miami Ohio limits penalties overall, but really takes care of the ball, ranking 38th in giveaways.
- Stop the Run: The RedHawks are solid on defense overall, but they’re dominant against the run. Opposing teams only muster a 3.7 yards per carry clip (32nd), and they have the 30th-best run defense in the nation.
Western Michigan Broncos
The 2025 season has gone slightly better for Western Michigan, as they ended the year with the best record in the MAC. You might be surprised to learn that they got off to an identically poor 0-3 start, however, before dominating the MAC.
They didn’t cruise through every MAC matchup, of course, as their lone loss came against – you guessed it – the RedHawks.
Western Michigan still enjoyed a rock-solid season that was propped up by an elite defense. Here’s a quick look at what made that defense so good and where else they stood out as a whole:
- Pound the Rock: This is not a high-powered offense (just 102nd best scoring offense), but they do run the ball very well. The Broncos run 63% of the time and have a solid 4.4 yards per carry average with the country’s 32nd best overall ground game. Dual-threat QB Broc Lowry (875 rushing yards, 14 TDs) makes them a threat every time out.
- Pressure Up Front: Success often starts in the trenches, and the Broncos are lethal on the edge. They own an 8.57% sack rate, which is good for 11th in all of college football.
- Bend, Don’t Break: Western Michigan also has a solid run defense, but where they really stand out is the red-zone. They only give up 19.1 points per game on the year (15th fewest), and it has a lot to do with a nasty RZ defense that ranks 28th in the country.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Miami Ohio vs. Western Michigan matchups:
- Miami Ohio’s rush offense vs. Western Michigan’s run defense: The RedHawks managed to run effectively in the first meeting, but they still don’t have a dominant ground game and will run into a Broncos defense that is typically pretty solid.
- Western Michigan’s pass rush vs. Miami Ohio’s o-line: The RedHawks don’t throw a ton, but they do rely on big plays in their passing game. They also have shaky pass protection, which could be a problem against one of college football’s best pass rushes.
- Turnover Battle: This could be the key to this game, as both teams are very good at protecting the football. Miami (OH) ranks 38th in giveaways, while Western Michigan ranks 23rd. The key difference? Miami (OH) is also elite (29th) at taking the ball away.
Betting Insights & Trends
Miami (OH) has been very good against the spread on the year, going 8-4. They have been rock solid on the road (4-2) against the spread as well, while they went 6-2 ATS within the MAC. They did go just 1-4 against the spread as the underdog, however.
Western Michigan has been even better, going 8-3-1 against the spread. They’re also 3-1 against the spread as the home favorite and 5-2-1 ATS inside the Mid-American Conference.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top RedHawks vs. Broncos picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Miami (OH) ML (+102) | This is simply the better team. They rallied late to win the first meeting, and they grade out as the better, more complete squad. Their run defense can slow down the Broncos’ weak offense, while they’re a good bet to win the turnover battle. | 7/10 |
Under 43.5 (-115) | I will trust in the defenses and a gritty title game. The first meeting totaled 43 points, and it was going to be far less if it wasn’t for a wild 4th quarter out of Miami (OH). Both defenses are solid, and Western Michigan’s offense is weak. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Miami (OH) ML (+110)
- Secondary Pick: Under 43.5 (-112)
This is probably going to be a pretty gross game, as both team’s strengths tend to be offset by the opponent’s strengths. Miami (OH) found a way to win the first game, and when looking at how these teams match up, I think they’ll do it again.
The Under feels like a pretty safe bet. This is a really low total for a college football game, but Western Michigan only allows 19 points per game, and Miami (OH) has a run defense that can slow down a Broncos team that loves to run. We simply shouldn’t see a lot of points here.
Watch how shifting odd lines shape the Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan MAC title showdown, as late movements mirror the intensity of this rivalry—track updates at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
College football bets don’t always work out. Here’s why my Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan picks could falter:
- Revenge: Western Michigan is going to be out for blood here, while they’re also at home and have a strong defense. They were up for most of the first meeting, so holding on and finishing the job wouldn’t be crazy.
- Low Total: Anytime a game total is this low, it’s tough to bet on. Obviously, it’s due to strong defense and suspect offense, but the first game hit the Under by just 0.5.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Miami (OH) 20, Western Michigan 17
Much like the first meeting, we’ll get a close game that goes down to the wire. Western Michigan did lead for much of that game, and they do have a few things going for them, namely a strong defense and home-field advantage.
However, the RedHawks have the run defense to keep Broc Lowry and co. relatively in check, while they are also opportunistic and bring a strong pass rush to the table. We’ve seen how good they can be over the last two weeks, while they also have a more dangerous offense.
Western Michigan’s defense should slow it down enough to stay close and help the Under hit, but brace for a bit of a snoozer where Miami (OH) gets their third in a row in this series.
