Troy vs. James Madison Prediction & Best Bets (December 5th, 2025)
The James Madison Dukes are massive -2100 favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference title game on Friday, although the Troy Trojans will hope to make oddsmakers look silly.
That’s been a running them, as Troy is a strong 8-4 against the spread in 2025, going 5-2 ATS as the underdog. They’ll try to do that in a big way on Friday, as they hope to battle back against a 22.5-point spread in their plight to claim the conference championship.
It won’t be easy, but it may be even more difficult for bettors to trust them. So, what’s the best approach? Do you bet on Troy to at least keep it close in the face of a wild 22.5-point spread, or are there other bets that offer superior value?
I’ll break it all down, looking over the latest odds and key matchups on my way to the top picks and my Troy vs. James Madison prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Troy Trojans (8-4) vs. James Madison Dukes (11-1)
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5th, with kickoff at 6:00 pm CT (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Team Record
- Troy is 8-4, 6-2 in the Sun Belt Conference.
- James Madison is 11-1, 8-0 in the Sun Belt Conference.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Troy vs. James Madison odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Troy | +23.5 (-114) | +1200 | Over 47.5 (-105) |
James Madison | -23.5 (-106) | -3000 | Under 47.5 (-115) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This is not a storied rivalry, with Troy and James Madison playing each other just three times. James Madison holds the all-time series edge (2-1) and won the most recent game in 2023.
The most recent showdown was quite close, with a 16-14 battle going down to the wire. The previous games were blowouts, with Troy winning 27-7 in 1999 and James Madison securing a 45-26 win in 1994.
James Madison plays their home games at Bridgeforth Stadium and are 6-0 there in 2025. They also won the only game at their home stadium that they played in this series.
Why This Game Matters
This game is for the 2025 Sun Belt Conference championship. The winner gets the conference title and would have a shot at earning a spot in the College Football Playoff.
It’s fair to say that Troy is unlikely to get the nod, but an 11-1 Dukes team may very well sneak in if they can stave off the Trojans.
Team Profiles
Troy Trojans
The Trojans have had a solid season, but one that has been a bit of a roller coaster. They got off to an emphatic 1-0 start by trouncing Nicholls State, but fell into a 1-2 hole with losses to Clemson and Memphis.
Those are not bad losses on paper, while the Trojans responded nicely by winning their next five games. Most of those games were pretty competitive and against weak competition, while they also got tripped up by Arkansas State and got shutout by Old Dominion.
Troy did respond once again with two straight wins over Georgia State and Southern Miss, allowing them to appear in this game. It has not been a perfect year, and they are huge road dogs, but they have a few things that stand out to give them a shot.
- Elite Balance: Troy doesn’t excel at anything offensively, but they do execute an extremely balanced system that keeps defenses guessing. That leads to a respectable 24 points per game and a decent red-zone conversion rate.
- Bend, Don’t Break: The Trojans are more exciting on defense, where they rank 56th in scoring, but truly jump off the page in the red zone. Their defense buckles, but doesn’t break, as they allow just a 77% red-zone scoring rate – 19th best in the country!
- Pressure Up Front: That defense isn’t exactly elite, but it’s inarguably Troy’s best asset as a collective. They stifle teams in the RZ, but they also get after them up front, posting a 7.06% sack rate (34th in the country). That allows for a stingy pass defense (43rd) and contributes to 1.4 takeaways per game.
James Madison Dukes
James Madison is undeniably the far more impressive team between these two. They have lost just one game so far in 2025, while they’ve easily been the class of the Sun Belt Conference.
They do still have to finish the job at home on Friday night, but nothing about their season or recent form indicates they won’t. They have allowed just 40 total points across their last three games, all of which have been convincing (if not flat-out dominant) wins.
James Madison’s lone defeat came against a good Louisville team (28-14), and they haven’t lost since. The Dukes have benefited from a soft schedule, but they’ve still executed and impressed at nearly every turn.
Here’s a look at where they’ve stood out the most in 2025:
- Master of Efficiency: James Madison does not waste much time putting up points or gaining chunks of yardage. They put up the 9th most points per game (37.2) thanks to big plays, both on the ground (17th) and through the air (20th).
- Ground Control: While the Dukes can burn defenses with their passing game, they prefer to pound the rock. James Madison runs the ball almost 62% of the time and churns out a sick 5.3 yards per carry en route to the nation’s 8th best rushing offense.
- Stingy Defense: Where do I begin? James Madison has been even better on defense, where they allow just 16.5 points per game (10th fewest), while shutting down opposing passing games (14th) and run games (6th), while generating the nation’s 26th best pass rush.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Troy vs. James Madison matchups:
- James Madison’s rush offense vs. Troy’s run defense: The Dukes have an insane rushing offense led by running back Wayne Knight and dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III (13 TDs). Troy simply doesn’t have the defensive front to contain them both.
- Troy’s rush offense vs. James Madison’s run defense: Troy’s only real hope is somehow winning the turnover battle and then also enforcing their will on the ground. Running back Tae Meadows would need to play far above his usual production against James Madison’s tough run defense, though.
- James Madison’s RZ offense vs. Troy’s RZ defense: This could be the key to the game. The Dukes can hurt Troy from all over the field, but the Trojans do have a good red-zone defense. If they can force James Madison into field goals or turnovers inside the 20, they could keep it closer than expected.
Betting Insights & Trends
Troy has been quite good against the spread (8-4) this year, while they’ve gone 6-2 ATS within SBC play. They’re also 5-2 ATS as the underdog and 5-1 ATS on the road.
James Madison has been about as good, going 8-4 against the spread overall, 4-2 ATS at home, and 5-3 ATS in the conference.
James Madison has also been very tough to beat at home and in the conference. They are 5-0 at home and undefeated in conference play in 2025.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Troy vs. James Madison picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
James Madison ATS -23.5 (-106) | James Madison tends to dominate inferior teams, and they are at home with a lot on the line. The spread is massive, but it’s one they are equipped to clear. | 7/10 |
Over 47.5 (-105) | The Dukes put up 37 points per game on average. They’ll need to do a lot of the heavy-lifting here, but I think they’ll oblige with a big scoring output. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Alonzo Barnett III Anytime TD (-280) | Barnett III is what makes the James Madison offense go. His odds for this prop bet aren’t super appealing, so it’s best left as a parlay add-on. However, with 13 touchdowns on the ground, he looks like a great bet to hit paydirt in a huge game at home. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: James Madison ATS -22.5 (-108)
- Secondary Pick: Over 47.5 (-105)
The Dukes are a really good bet to win the Sun Belt Conference title game, but the only question is if they can beat this gaudy spread. I think they can, as they’ve been incredibly dominant and look like the vastly superior team in this matchup.
While the Dukes should win big, I still like the Over. Their offensive production should have a lot to do with that, but Troy could still chip in a few points to get us over the hump.
Troy vs. James Madison odds keep shifting as bettors react to the massive spread — track every line change, compare totals, and lock in the best value at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Things don’t always go as planned when betting on college football. Here’s why my Troy vs. James Madison picks could fail:
- Huge Spread: This is a really big point spread when you consider what’s on the line. Teams win big in title games all the time, but Troy simply keeping this game within 22 points makes this a losing bet.
- Defensive Battle: Both teams have pretty solid defenses with some key attributes that could slow the scoring down in this game. It’s also possible the Dukes blow Troy out and take their foot off the gas late.
- TD Variance: Barnett III is a borderline lock to run in a touchdown, but you just never know who’s number will get called. James Madison could also do all of their scoring damage through the air.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: James Madison 45, Troy 10
My main Troy vs. James Madison prediction is that this one won’t be remotely close. Troy got housed by Old Dominion just a few weeks ago, which is enough to show me they probably aren’t at the same level as James Madison.
The 11-1 Dukes also have a shot at reaching the CFP, and I really doubt they’re going to blow it at home. Of course, you’re not betting on the James Madison moneyline, so we just need to hope all the data that points to a win also translates to them covering.
James Madison should cover in a blowout victory, but if you’re not comfortable with that big spread, I get it. You can attack the game total, instead, as there should be plenty of points to get us there from the Dukes side of things.
