Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders Prediction & Best Bets (November 30th, 2025)
The Denver Broncos head northeast to take on the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football, where they will be 5.5-point favorites to move to 10-2.
Denver has been an interesting case on the year, as they have a fantastic record, but have required numerous late-game comebacks to secure victories.
Regardless, they are in a much better spot than the 3-8 Commanders, and could use a win as they try to lock down the top seed in the AFC.
Things have gotten pretty bleak for Washington, which has battled injuries all year. The team could potentially get Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin back for this contest, however, which could complicate matters for bettors.
Want to know the best bet for this game? Join me as I break down the latest odds and work my way to a Broncos vs. Commanders prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, November 30th, 2025 | Kickoff at 8:20 pm ET (NBC/Peacock) at Northwest Stadium in Summerfield, MD
- Team records entering the game:
- Broncos: 9-2
- Commanders: 3-8
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Broncos -6.5 (-112) | Commanders +6.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Broncos (-340) | Commanders (+270)
- Total: Over 43.5 (-105) | Under 43.5 (-115)
Denver is being respected by oddsmakers, as they are almost six-point favorites despite being on the road. Still, there’s potential value here, as it could be argued that the Broncos should be even bigger favorites.
The game total is pretty light, but that factors in Denver’s defense and injuries to the Commanders.
Storylines to Watch
There are plenty of Broncos vs. Commanders storylines to keep in mind before finalizing your bets, but the big one is Denver’s plight to hold onto first place in the AFC.
Denver can get to 10-2 with a win here, inching them closer to the #1 seed and the AFC West division crown.
Here’s a few more Denver vs. Washington storylines to consider:
- Return of Patrick Surtain II: It remains to be seen if star cornerback Patrick Surtain II actually returns this week, but he practiced and is ready to rock. Denver’s defense has been fine without him, but he would provide a major boost to their secondary.
- RJ Harvey Szn: We get a second dose of rookie running back RJ Harvey in a featured role. Denver passes quite a bit, but getting their talented rusher going – especially with JK Dobbins currently on IR – should be a point of emphasis.
- Getting Healthy: The Broncos aren’t the only one getting healthier in this SNF clash. Washington is set to get their starting quarterback and top wide receiver back soon. Their statuses are not confirmed, but Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin suiting up would be quite the boon for a struggling Commanders offense.
Team Profiles
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have found a way to win more often than not in 2025. They are a stellar 9-2 and have won eight games in a row, with their only two losses coming against good Colts and Chargers teams (by a combined four points).
Denver hasn’t always been perfect, as a whopping seven of their wins have come by just one score. It’s been particularly tight as of late, with each of Denver’s last three games decided by three points each.
There’s something to be said about pulling out games in the end, though, and the Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL at doing that.
Here’s a quick look at where they’ve stood out on the year:
- Elite Pressure: Denver wins defensively, first and foremost. They only allow 17.5 points per game (3rd fewest), and a big reason for their dominance is their elite sack rate (2nd best in the NFL).
- Max Protect: The Broncos weirdly throw the ball a ton (12th highest pass rate), but they at least keep Bo Nix protected. They’re not overly efficient or explosive in the passing game, but they give up the fewest sacks in pro football.
- Stingy D: In addition to not giving up points and generating pressure, Denver just doesn’t let opposing offenses do much of anything. They come into this game giving up just 3.6 yards per rush (1st) and 6.3 yards per pass (6th). Brutal stuff here, folks.
Washington Commanders
Washington has suffered quite the free fall compared to where they were a year ago. Last year, Jayden Daniels was enjoying a sensational rookie season, and the Commanders managed to reach the NFC title game.
They’ve struggled in 2025, however, as Daniels hasn’t been as good and the Commanders have been banged up throughout their roster. The offense has been particularly suspect, and this team is reeling after a 3-2 start.
Washington has been in a lot of their games, but an unreliable offense has contributed to a rough six-game skid that may not have an end in sight.
Here’s a look at what the Commanders have done well in 2025, though:
- Finish the Job: Washington only ranks 23rd in scoring, but they do a great job once they get within striking distance. On the year, they have the league’s second-best red-zone offense, converting on over 71% of their trips inside the 20.
- Ground Control: The Commanders have been inconsistent offensively, but they continue to put up strong rushing numbers. They’ve had a mobile presence under center no matter who’s at QB, while their respectable stable of running backs contribute to the NFL’s 4th-best ground game.
- Bring the Pressure: Washington’s defense has been pretty bad, but their pass rush (7.08% sack rate) is one of their few bright spots on that side of the ball. Dorance Armstrong and Von Miller (10.5 sacks combined) give the Commanders a decent pass rush to lean on.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Broncos vs. Commanders matchups:
- RJ Harvey vs. Washington’s run defense: JK Dobbins remains out, so it’ll be the RJ Harvey Show again on Sunday Night Football. Harvey only mustered 30 rushing yards on 11 carries last week, but that was against a good Chiefs front seven. Washington (137.5 rushing yards allowed per game) ranks 27th against the run.
- Bo Nix vs. Washington’s pass defense: Denver passes a lot more than you’d think they would. They’re not always super efficient, but they should smash in this matchup. The Broncos have plenty of speed that could destroy a struggling Commanders secondary that gives up 8.9 yards per pass – most in the NFL.
- Washington’s RZ offense vs. Denver’s RZ defense: This is the NFL’s second-best red-zone offense against the best red-zone defense. My guess is that Denver wins this matchup – especially if Jayden Daniels is out – but it could obviously be a difference-maker.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Broncos vs. Commanders odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Broncos | -6.5 (-112) | -340 | Over 43.5 (-105) |
Commanders | +6.5 (+100) | +270 | Under 43.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public is extremely high on Denver, with 97% of the bets and 97% of the money on the Broncos this week.
- Record History: Denver and Washington have only faced each other 16 times, with the series tied 8-8. The Commanders won the last meeting in a wild 35-33 shootout, while the two sides have split the series (2-2) over the last four games.
- ATS Tidbits: Denver is 5-5-1 against the spread this year, but are just 2-5 ATS when favored and 0-1 ATS when favored on the road. Washington is just 3-8 against the spread and are 1-7 ATS as the underdog and 2-3 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Broncos vs. Commanders
Pick 1: Broncos ATS -6.5 (-112) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Denver needs to keep winning to ensure they take the AFC West and stay in front for the top spot in the AFC. They’re by far the better team, and Washington could continue to be without their star quarterback.
Risks/What to Watch
Jayden Daniels randomly returning could change things, while winning road games isn’t ever easy in the NFL. Denver has struggled to put teams away and is specifically bad ATS, so Washington hanging in this one wouldn’t be the craziest thing we’ve seen in 2025.
Pick 2: Over 43.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
I definitely respect Denver’s defense, but I don’t fear Washington’s at all. Considering I like the Broncos to win and cover, this could be one of those rare times where they just go off on offense and leave no doubt. The Broncos would be doing much of the heavy lifting in the scoring department in this scenario.
Risks/What to Watch
Denver’s defense is quite good, so they could legit shut the Commanders out. Their offense has also not dominated lately, scoring 21 or fewer points in each of their last three outings.
Pick 3: Prop Play – RJ Harvey Anytime TD (+100) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Harvey has an enhanced role with JK Dobbins, presently shelved with an injury. Washington is a great matchup for running backs, ranking 27th against the run and allowing the 15th most rushing scores per game.
Risks/What to Watch
Denver’s offense hasn’t been clicking at a high level, and this is a road game at night. It’s always possible the Broncos struggle or simply score through the air or via Bo Nix’s legs.
Line movement for Broncos vs. Commanders could reshape the betting value — follow the odds shifts and lock in the strongest number at our top football betting sites before placing your bets.
Final Verdict: Broncos Stay Hot and Get to 10-2
My main Broncos vs. Commanders prediction is that Denver will win. However, you’re not making much money on a -270 moneyline, so I’d target them to cover. Their 5.5-point spread really isn’t that ambitious, as the Commanders are not a team we should be fearing at this point.
Denver should show out on offense, which puts the Over in play, too. I also like RJ Harvey’s new role and matchup. While he hasn’t been super active in terms of rushing scores, he does have a bigger rushing role than usual, and he has found the end-zone a few times as a receiver.
Overall, bettors should be betting the Denver side of this game and brace for a lopsided affair.
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 34, Commanders 13
