Arizona vs Arizona State Prediction & Betting Picks (November 28th, 2025)
The Territorial Cup holds extra meaning on Friday, as both Arizona and Arizona State are inside the top-25 simultaneously for the first time in years.
The point spread is as tight as it gets, as the Arizona Wildcats are light 1.5-point favorites at FanDuel. This, despite the fact that Arizona State is hosting this game and has more to play for with a shot at the Big 12 title game still on the line.
Both teams are 8-3 and have been competitive within a brutal conference, but only one can win the 99th Territorial Cup. Arizona would have the ultimate bragging rights, while Arizona State could parlay a huge emotional win into something much bigger.
Not sure who to take in this storied rivalry? I’ll help you sort it all out as I inspect the latest odds and key matchups en route to my Arizona vs. Arizona State prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Arizona Wildcats (8-3) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-3).
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28th, with kickoff at 8:00 pm CT (9:00 pm ET).
- Venue: Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, AZ.
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on FOX.
Team Record
- Arizona is 8-3, 5-3 in the Big 12.
- Arizona State is 8-3, 6-2 in the Big 12.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Arizona vs. Arizona State odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | -1.5 (-110) | -122 | Over 47.5 (-115) |
Arizona State | +1.5 (-110) | +102 | Under 47.5 (-105) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
When talking about college football rivalries, the Territorial Cup is easily among the best. Arizona and Arizona State are in-state rivals, and they’ll be facing off for the 99th time on Friday night.
As one would imagine, the rivalry has been pretty even, with Arizona holding a mild 51-45-1 edge in the series. The Sun Devils won the most recent meeting in a 49-7 blowout last year, while Arizona housed them (59-23) the year prior. The game before that was a tense 38-35 shootout.
Overall, the series is split right down the middle (2-2) over the last four years, although Arizona State’s 38-15 victory from 2021 was technically vacated.
As for the venue, Arizona State conducts business out of Mountain America Stadium, where they are 5-1 so far in 2025 and 5-1 over the last six Territorial Cup showdowns.
Why This Game Matters
Coming away with a 2025 Territorial Cup prediction isn’t easy, just because the rivalry itself has been unpredictable. More than that, however, both teams are quite good and inside the top-25 at the moment.
Both Arizona and Arizona State have a lot to play for, too. Arizona is naturally eager to build a winning streak in this storied rivalry, while they also can play spoiler. On top of that, they can inch closer to a 10-win season and would give themselves a crack at a better bowl game with a victory in this spot.
There’s even more on the line for the Sun Devils, though. They are 6-2 within the Big 12, so if they win here and they get a ton of help, they can get into the conference championship game. Even if that doesn’t happen, a win here would nudge Arizona State toward an elite bowl game, and they also could potentially finish the year with 10 wins.
Team Profiles
Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats have enjoyed a stellar season that has seen them get tripped up three times, but two of those losses were very close. One was a six-point loss to a BYU team with one defeat on the year, and another was by three points to a strong Houston squad.
Arizona got off to a 3-0 start behind elite offense and strong defense, but they’ve seen their defense falter several times this year. The offense has been a mainstay, however, with quarterback Noah Fifita powering one of the more dynamic groups in the country.
The Wildcats are a tough out for anyone. Here’s a quick look at what they’ve done well on the year:
- Dynamic Duo: The Wildcats don’t stand out in any one area, but they’re incredibly balanced, which makes them as dangerous as anyone. Fifita (25 passing touchdowns) leads an efficient passing attack, while Ismail Mahdi (6.8 yards per carry) keeps defenses honest on the ground.
- Work for it: Arizona’s defense isn’t elite across the board, but it is solid overall. They rank 31st in points allowed per game and only give up 4.6 yards per play – forcing opposing offenses to work for their scores.
- You Shall Not Pass: Offenses don’t find a ton of success through the air against the Wildcats. Arizona can certainly be run on, but their pass defense allows just 168.9 yards per game – good for 9th best in the nation.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Much like the Wildcats, the Sun Devils only have three losses on the year, and two of them went down to the wire. They did get blown out by an elite Utah team, but four and eight-point losses to Mississippi State and Houston also held them back.
Arizona State got tripped up early in week two, but otherwise got off to a strong 4-1 start before that brutal 42-10 loss to the Utes. They did bounce back, however, going 4-1 ever since.
The Sun Devils don’t wow you on either side of the ball, but they know how to run the football and play with a lead. Here’s a quick look at where they’ve thrived on the year:
- Ground Control: The Sun Devils definitely want to run the ball (53.9% rush rate), and they’re good at it. Stud running back Raleek Brown has compiled 1,078 yards at a 6.2 clip, leading the country’s 22nd-ranked ground game.
- The Buck Stops Here: Arizona State doesn’t always play elite defense, but they sure do batten down the hatches when teams get inside the 20. On the year, opposing offenses are only converting 77% of the time in the RZ (18th).
- Brick Wall: In addition to their tough red-zone defense, the Sun Devils are very good up front, holding opposing offenses to just 3.6 yards per carry (28th) and 122.3 rushing yards per game (29th).
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Arizona vs. Arizona State matchups:
- Ismail Mahdi vs. Arizona State’s run defense: Mahdi is quite efficient, but he will need to bring his A-game against a brutal Sun Devils defense that limits teams on the ground.
- Arizona’s o-line vs. Arizona State’s pass rush: This is probably going to have to be a Noah Fifita game. He can have success, but his pass protection better be on point against a scary Sun Devils pass rush (18th best sack rate).
- Raleek Brown vs. Arizona’s run defense: It’s the other way around for the Sun Devils. They also have an explosive RB, but his matchup looks good on paper. Brown is coming off an insane 255-yard outing and gets a softer matchup than Mahdi.
Betting Insights & Trends
Both of these teams come in hot, as Arizona has won four in a row and Arizona State is 4-1 over their last five.
Two of Arizona’s losses have come on the road this year, while Arizona State (5-1) has been quite good at home.
Arizona (7-4) has been good against the spread, while they are 5-4 ATS in Big 12 games, 5-2 ATS when favored, and 2-2 against the spread on the road. Arizona State is just 5-5-1 ATS in 2025, but they are 3-1 against the spread as the underdog.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my favorite Boise State vs. Utah State picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Arizona State ML (+102) | The Sun Devils are at home with a slim chance at the Big 12 title game. In a game that has a ton of history and is evenly matched, the tiebreaker goes to the home team with more to play for. | 7/10 |
Over 47.5 (-115) | Both defenses are capable of stepping up, but we have two dynamic and balanced offenses in a very tense setting. The last three outings in this series have been pretty explosive, too. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Noah Fifita Over 200+ Passing Yards (-186) | The value isn’t insane, but Fifita has topped this yardage total in 6 of his last 8 games and Arizona State gives up 218 passing yards per game. Given their stingy run defense, Fifita will need to air it out in this one. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Arizona State ML (+106)
- Secondary Pick: Over 47.5 (-115)
We’re getting really good value with the Sun Devils at home in a huge game. There is so much baked into this game, but the reality is they have been the better team, they’re at home, and they have more to play for.
The defenses are decent, but the offenses are balanced and dynamic. We’ve also gotten shootouts in this series lately. With so much at stake, I think both teams show up and show out.
Noah Fifita is going to have to throw in this game. The matchup demands it, while he’s regularly hit the Over on this passing yardage prop bet on the year.
Arizona vs. Arizona State odds won’t stay still — track shifting lines, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Sometimes even the best wagers don’t deliver. Here are some reasons why my Arizona vs. Arizona State bets could fail:
- Rivalry Setting: The Territorial Cup can be unpredictable, and rivalry games are often a toss-up. It’s always possible Arizona marches into Tempe and takes care of business.
- Defensive Bite: As noted, the defenses are decent, and the offenses aren’t exactly elite compared to the top offenses in the country. Given the modest total, it’s always possible this ends up being a low-scoring affair.
- Recent Form: I think the matchup and Fifita’s 2025 production favors the Over on his prop, but he’s hit the Under in 2 of his last 3 and only passed for 126 yards the last time he ran into the Sun Devils.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Arizona State 30, Arizona 27
My ultimate Territorial Cup prediction is that we get a really close game. I think it has shootout potential and should be close until the end, but I favor Arizona State on their home field.
These teams measure up pretty evenly overall, but the Sun Devils smoked Arizona the last time they faced them, and I favor their defense more. They have a very good run defense and a nasty pass rush, so that could give them the edge they need.
That won’t prevent some points being scored, although Arizona State showed us last year in this same matchup that they can do the heavy-lifting on their own. Despite all of that, Fifita should be busy, and I think he’s a really good bet to throw for 200+ passing yards in a losing effort.
