Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Prediction & Betting Picks (November 20, 2025)
A huge Sun Belt Conference clash awaits us on Thursday night, as the Arkansas State Red Wolves hope to dispatch the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.
The Red Wolves come in as light 2.5-point favorites to take care of business at home, but with the game’s sweltering 54.5 total, we could expect some fireworks; and an upset isn’t out of the question.
One thing that’s certain? Both teams will be up for this game. First place in the SBC has yet to be decided, as Southern Miss sits atop the leaderboard, but Arkansas State is just one game behind them.
Will Louisiana play spoiler and keep their grim SBC title hopes alive, or will Arkansas State answer the call as -138 betting favorites and get the job done?
If you’re not sure which side to back, join me as I inspect the latest odds and key matchups en route to a Louisiana vs. Arkansas State prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (4-6) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-5)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, November 18th, with kickoff at 6:00 pm CT (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, AR
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Louisiana vs. Arkansas State odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Louisiana | +2.5 (-108) | +116 | Over 54.5 (-106) |
Arkansas State | -2.5 (-136) | -136 | Under 54.5 (-110) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This is a Sun Belt Conference showdown we’ve definitely seen before, with these two teams facing off 51 times in school history.
It’s been mostly Louisiana, of course, as they hold a commanding 29-21-1 lifetime edge and won the most recent meeting (55-19) in commanding fashion.
They’ve been on a bit of a heater in this series, too. Arkansas State did blow them out (37-17) in 2023, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have won six of the last seven meetings.
Thursday’s SBC tilt will be in Jonesboro, where Arkansas State won in 2023, but is just 2-2 in the last four games here between these two sides.
Why This Game Matters
First place in the SBC is still up for grabs and with just two more regular season games on each team’s schedule, it’s do or die time.
It’s always possible Southern Miss just wins out and this game ultimately doesn’t matter, but for this week it definitely does. It’s a bigger deal for Arkansas State (4-2 in the SBC), as a win keeps them one game out of first place.
A Louisiana win probably won’t save them, but would likely knock both teams out of the running for the conference title.
Team Profiles
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Louisiana has been respectable (3-3) in conference play, but have not gotten it done as a whole in 2025.
While their 4-6 record is uninspiring, they deserve credit for being in most of their games, while a recent offensive burst suggests they could be heating up at precisely the right time.
Here’s a quick look at where they excel going into this crucial matchup:
- RZ Studs: Louisiana has upped their game offensively lately, but they’ve been good (56th) all year inside the 20, converting scores at a 86.21% clip.
- Run Heavy: The Ragin’ Cajuns are a team that loves to run the football and are pretty good at it. They rank 19th in rush rate, but also churn out an effective 4.5 yards per carry and own the nation’s 42nd best rushing attack.
- Error Free: Louisiana can stay in a lot of games thanks to their rushing offense, but they also don’t make many impactful mental mistakes. They enter this matchup with the 18th lowest yards per penalty (7.9) rate.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
The Red Wolves have had a wild ride, won easily back in week one to get off to a 1-0 start, but then fell apart during a brutal four-game skid.
That losing streak might end up keeping them out of a bowl game, but they’ve rebounded nicely, winning four in a row before getting tripped up by Southern Miss (27-21) last time out.
The overall form has been great lately, so here’s a quick look at where this team thrives:
- Pass Happy: The Red Wolves are the opposite of their opponent, as they love to attack through the air. Arkansas State owns the nation’s 23rd highest pass rate and they are quite efficient (11th in completion rate).
- Balanced Attack: Arkansas State’s passing game is not particularly explosive, but they do have a lot of mouths to feed. Corey Rucker, Chancy Cobb, and Hunter Summers give this offense three effective receivers the opposing defense has to keep tabs on.
- Constant Pressure: Ethan Hassler heads a very good pass rush (17th in sack rate), as he has 5.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss coming into this showdown.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Louisiana’s red-zone offense vs. Arkansas State’s red-zone defense: This is probably the key to the game. The Ragin’ Cajuns typically score when they get inside the 20, but they are running into an elite bend-but-don’t-break unit that only allows a score 78% of the time when opponents get in the red-zone.
- Louisiana’s rush offense vs. Arkansas State’s run defense: This is perhaps just as crucial, as it’s what the Ragin’ Cajuns do best and the Red Wolves are quite bad (112th) with 187 rushing yards coughed up per game.
- Arkansas State’s passing offense vs. Louisiana’s pass defense: On the flip side, the Red Wolves want to pass to move the ball, but Louisiana grades out decently on that side of the ball. Their ground game does impact overall numbers and they have just a 5.81% sack rate (75th), though.
Betting Insights & Trends
Louisiana has gone 5-5 against the spread on the season, while they are 2-3 ATS as the road team and 4-3 ATS as the underdog. They have gone 4-2 against the spread in Sun Belt Conference games, however.
Arkansas State is an impressive 7-3 against the spread on the year, while they are 2-2 ATS when favored. Of course, they have been exceptional ATS at home (5-0) and within the conference (5-1) in 2025.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my favorite Louisiana vs. Arkansas State picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Arkansas State ML (-136) | The Red Wolves have a methodical passing game, own the superior defense, and will be at home. With more to gain, I think they take care of business. | 8/10 |
Over 54.5 (-106) | Neither defense is elite and both offenses can dominate in their areas of specialty. I see a fairly competitive game and a lot of points, giving us a clear path to the Over. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Corey Rucker Over 5.5 Catches (+130) | Let’s get some elite value with Rucker, who is in a better spot than the numbers suggest. He’s topped this Over in four of his last six games and the Red Wolves pass a ton. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Arkansas State ML (-136)
- Secondary Pick: Over 54.5 (-106)
Arkansas State has a lot going for them, as they’re at home in the middle of the week, they have more incentive to win, and the majority of this matchup favors them.
The Red Wolves have also been quite good ATS at home and in SBC play, so I think they get it done and keep Southern Miss sweating.
While the Red Wolves should win, this game should still be reasonably competitive and feature plenty of scoring. The offenses combine for over 46 points per game, while the defenses allow a combined 59+ points per contest.
There are a lot of Louisiana vs. Arkansas State prop bets to consider, but the value with Corey Rucker getting six grabs – something he’s done several times – is too good to ignore.
Take a look at the different football betting sites to get a better idea of all the prop bets available for this matchup.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Sometimes even the best wagers don’t deliver. Here are some reasons why Louisiana vs. Arkansas State bets could fail:
- Rivalry Setting: It’s a Sun Belt Conference game, so a better than advertised Louisiana team coming in and staging the upset wouldn’t be that crazy.
- Major Mismatch: I think most of the matchup favors Arkansas State, but Louisiana could absolutely dominate this thing on the ground and change the game’s trajectory entirely.
- Recent History: Let’s not forget that Louisiana holds the lifetime edge in this series and has won six of the last seven meetings. Mental holds can be real.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Arkansas State 34, Louisiana 31
This game screams shootout. Louisiana’s offense has cooked lately, producing 42 and 31 points in recent wins. Their defense has also been atrocious, both on the year and recently.
They gave up 39 points in their most recent game and specifically had major issues containing the passing game of Texas State. On the road against a team that relies on the pass so much, I think they’re in some trouble.
Arkansas State ultimately has too much to gain. They played first place Southern Miss really well last time out and they need to win to stay alive for the conference title. I think they do just that.
