Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Prediction & Betting Picks (November 6th, 2025)
The Denver Broncos will be huge 9.5-point favorites when they host the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football in week 10. The two teams have opposite records and are trending in very different directions, but the Raiders will hope to play spoiler.
Denver (7-2) is sitting in first place in the division and has won six games in a row. They are understandable -500 favorites to take care of business at home, but that moneyline and their point spread put bettors in no man’s land.
The Broncos also have a stingy defense, as the low game total (43.5) suggests we could be in for a bit of a snoozer on a short week. All advantages rest with the Broncos at home in this one, but division rivalry meetings tend to be toss-ups.
Wondering if the Raiders are an upset pick worth attacking or if Denver can cover a gaudy spread? I’ll point you in the right direction as I inspect the latest odds, investigate the key matchups, and offer my Raiders vs. Broncos predictions and best bets.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Thursday, November 6th, 2025 | Kickoff at 7:15 pm ET (Amazon Prime) at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO
- Team records entering the game:
- Raiders: 2-7
- Broncos: 7-2
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Raiders +9.5 (-110) | Broncos -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Raiders (+380) | Broncos (-500)
- Total: Over 42.5 (-118) | Under 42.5 (-102)
This is a division rivalry game, but the oddsmakers don’t care about that. Denver is priced up slightly because they’re at home on a short week, but the point spread and moneyline are a big indicator of how far apart these teams are. Las Vegas has an offense that runs hot and cold, and Denver’s defense is elite, which together play into a very low total.
Storylines to Watch
The biggest storyline for this game is that the Broncos are in full control of the AFC West. They have been borderline lucky – if not just good – at finishing games strong and coming from behind, but they could use this game to show how dominant they can be against inferior competition.
- Healthy Bowers: The Raiders haven’t been good in 2025, but they also haven’t been themselves. Star tight end Brock Bowers specifically hasn’t been healthy. The second he got rested and looked normal? He popped off for 3 TDs last week.
- Fast Start: Denver has rotated dominance and slow starts with exciting finishes for much of the year. This game is a good test to allow them to prove they can start fast and dominate throughout an entire game, rather than wait for the fourth quarter to show a pulse.
- Nothing to Lose: A big narrative here is that the 2-7 Raiders have nothing to play for, but they also have nothing to lose. Las Vegas played with plenty of heart last week, and opted to go for it all with a two-point conversion at the end. They failed, but that spirit could carry over to TNF.
- Not So Surtain: Denver’s defense is still good on paper, but they will be without superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Could his absence be felt on a short week against a Raiders team that has nothing to lose?
Team Profiles
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders made big moves during the offseason; hiring veteran head coach Pete Carroll, trading for quarterback Geno Smith, and drafting star running back Ashton Jeanty. After a 1-0 start, everyone thought they could be a contender.
Fast forward to week 10, and they are 2-7 with the season circling down the drain. That said, they do have some positives to lean on going into TNF.
- Brock Szn: Brock Bowers got hurt early in the season and was never the same. After getting time to rest, he looked like his old explosive self last week, shredding the Jaguars to the tune of three scores.
- Pass Happy: While often born out of necessity, the Raiders have been a pass-first offense in 2025, throwing at a 58% clip. It hasn’t led to much top shelf production, but as we saw last week, they do have a ceiling. Their tempo could create problems for a shorthanded Broncos secondary.
- Mad Maxx: Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby wasn’t traded, so he’ll be out there trying to take Bo Nix’s head off. Always fired up and motivated, Crosby gives Las Vegas a nasty edge on the defensive line and he would love nothing more than to derail Denver’s season.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have enjoyed a highly productive 2025 campaign, as they are 7-2 and atop the AFC West. It hasn’t all been perfect, but their only two losses came against good Colts and Chargers teams by a combined four points.
Denver has their issues like anyone else, but they could be undefeated right now. Their numerous fourth-quarter comebacks are a sign of a team that is often complacent, but also one that never gives up.
Here are a few more key points for the Broncos coming into Thursday Night Football:
- Ground & Pound: On a short week, it might make sense for the Broncos to take it easy on the top running back, DK Dobbins. Denver’s 7th-best rush offense has a chance to dominate, but turning to rookie rusher RJ Harvey could keep the often-injured Dobbins fresh (and healthy).
- Protect Nix: Maxx Crosby makes it his life’s mission to sack AFC West quarterbacks, but Denver’s pass protection has been elite (#1 in sacks allowed). So long as it stays that way and Maxx is kept at bay, the Broncos should be able to fire on all cylinders.
- Elite D: Denver wasn’t really tested defensively against Houston last week, but not having Patrick Surtain II against a weapon like Brock Bowers could be huge. However, that unit has been elite for much of the year, ranking 4th in scoring, #1 in sack rate, 8th vs. the run, and 6th against the pass.
Key Matchups & Angles
Take a look at the key Raiders vs. Broncos matchups for TNF:
- Broncos running game vs. Raiders run defense: Overall, the Broncos have been quite effective on the ground, while the Raiders rank 16th against the run. However, they do grade out very well (7th) in yards per carry allowed. If the Raiders can stay fresh and play with a lead, they might be able to flip the script.
- Bowers vs. Denver’s pass defense: The Broncos have an elite pass defense, but that’s when Patrick Surtain II is healthy. Las Vegas has some big play threats at wide receiver, while tight end Brock Bowers reminded everyone last week he’s a walking mismatch. Denver (14th most yards allowed to TEs) might not have anyone that can actually stop him.
- Denver’s RZ offense vs. Raiders RZ defense: The Broncos tend to seal the deal when they get inside the 20 (67.86%), while the Raiders rank 17th at preventing touchdowns in the red-zone. If Denver’s offense overpowers the Raiders like the numbers suggest, they could score at will when they get near the goal-line.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Check out the latest odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Raiders | +9.5 (-110) | +380 | Over 42.5 (-118) |
Broncos | -9.5 (-110) | -500 | Under 42.5 (-102) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this TNF tilt:
- Public Betting: The public betting per Action Network has this game borderline split. Just 60% of the bets are on Denver, while 53% of the money is surprisingly on the Raiders.
- Matchup History: This storied rivalry has produced 131 meetings with the Raiders leading the all-time series, 73-56-2. It’s been all Denver in the last two meetings, but the Raiders won the previous eight games prior.
- ATS Data: The Broncos have a great record, but they’re just 4-4-1 against the spread and 2-4 ATS as the betting favorite. Las Vegas is 3-5 against the spread and 2-4 ATS as the underdog, however.
Best Bets for Raiders vs. Broncos
Pick 1: Broncos ATS -9.5 ( -110) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Denver is at home on a short week in a primetime setting. They have the edge across the board when you look at this matchup, while the Raiders have gotten blown out several times this year. They also have much more to play for and need to show they can dominate inferior competition.
Risks/What to Watch
The return of a healthy Brock Bowers combined with the absence of Patrick Surtain II provides cause for pause, while division rivalry games can often go against logic.
Pick 2: Prop Play – Brock Bowers Over 60+ Rec Yds (-168) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Bowers looked like himself last week, dominating whatever defensive look the Bears threw at him. He’s only topped 60+ receiving yards twice this year, but they were the only two games he was healthy in. His target volume is safe after the team traded away Jakobi Meyers, too.
Risks/What to Watch
Denver’s defense is still pretty stingy. We don’t know if they’re in for a drop off without their top cover man, but there’s a decent chance they still sell out to stop Bowers.
Pick 3: Prop Play – J.K. Dobbins Anytime TD (-130) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Raiders are not great against the run and have allowed the third most rushing scores to running backs in 2025. Dobbins is seeing a healthy amount of carries on a weekly basis and has already scored a touchdown in four different games.
Risks/What to Watch
It’s always possible Dobbins is limited more than usual thanks to the short week, while rookie RJ Harvey could continue his own TD streak as well.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos odds are shifting — monitor line changes and grab the best numbers before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Broncos Stay Hot to Get to 8-2
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 10
The Broncos are the better team, and I think they’re going to play like it. Las Vegas could strike early and make bettors sweat, but they don’t have an advantage anywhere in this game.
Las Vegas has one wild card play; get Brock Bowers the ball and hope he dominates. It’s possible that works, but since he’s their only weapon, a good Broncos defense should do well to contain him.
Bowers will have enough volume to get 60+ yards, but Denver should contain the Las Vegas passing game overall, while the Raiders haven’t been a threat on the ground. Denver has, so Dobbins and Harvey should be able to find plenty of success en route to eating the clock late in a blowout win.
