Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction (October 22, 2025)
Missouri State and the Aggies have a 3-3 record and are tied in the conference, 1-1 vs. 1-2. They meet in Las Cruces with just 1.5 points separating them. Yet, everything beneath the surface suggests a clash far more than a toss-up.
The game is scheduled for Wednesday, October 22, 2025, at 9:00 PM ET. Missouri State will face the Aggies at the Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico. For the odds, we have the following from DraftKings:
- Spread: Missouri State -1.5 (-105) | New Mexico State +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Missouri State -115 | New Mexico State -105
- Total: Over 50.5 (-118) | Under 50.5 (-102)
I’ll dig into the profiles, matchups, and betting angles as best as I can. Then, we’ll see the best play and my confidence in it.
Game Details
- Matchup: Missouri State Bears (3-3) vs New Mexico State Aggies (3-3)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 22, at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
- How to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Team Profiles & Current Form
Missouri State Bears
The Bears have a 3-3 overall record, with 1-1 in Conference USA play—not so different from the Aggies. When it comes to their average, they are at ~21.7 per game. The team is ranked ~48th with around 254.5 passing yards per game, but not so good at the rushing yards per game, as it is ranked ~127th with 103.
Things don’t look competitive in the red-zone efficiency either, as the team is ranked 81st nationally, even though it scores on roughly 83.3% of red-zone trips. It also allows ~29.7 points per game, which puts it at ~108th in ranking. The rushing yards performance also needs to improve, as the team is currently ranked 77th with ~151.2 per game.
The Bears won 22-20 on the road against the Tennessee Blue Raiders. That might just be advantageous for the team in this game, as records indicate it has been better away than at home.
Key Strengths & Concerns
I’m impressed with the Bears’ competence in passing attacks and their ability to win tight games away from home. However, with the run game almost nonexistent and the tendency for the defense to give up too many points and yards, getting a win over the Aggies will not be easy.
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State has a similar overall record to the Bears (3-3), but with 1-2 in Conference USA play. The team scores ~23.0 points per game, which places them at 115th. It also averages ~66.7 rushing yards per game, placing them at 72nd.
In passing, the Aggies have ~257.7 passing yards per game, allowing them to rank 47th. The team also allows fewer points per game when compared to the Bears (~23.0 points with 115th ranking). As for the rushing yards, the team has ~149.8 per game, placing it at the 72nd spot.
New Mexico has a strong home record, winning all three games at home this season. However, its time of possession averages 28:44 per game (ranked ~101st), which is lower than Missouri State with ~31:23 (ranked ~39th). That suggests Missouri State has the upper hand when it comes to holding the ball.
Key Strengths & Concerns
The Aggies have a better pass offense. In addition, they have the home-field advantage in this game and a defense that keeps them in games. Notwithstanding, the extremely weak rushing defense remains a loophole for exploitation. If Missouri State forces them into a one-dimensional throw, they may stall.
Matchup Context & Key Underlying Metrics
Both teams hold a 3-3 record. However, Missouri State is the slight road favorite (-1.5), which sets up a classic “favored visitor vs. home underdog” scenario.
Missouri State only rushes for ~103 yards per game. As such, I do not see them exploiting New Mexico’s weakness of allowing ~149.8 rushing yards per game.
When it comes to the aerial battle, the Aggies have the slight edge with 257.7 yards in the passing game, compared to Missouri State’s pass defense that has allowed ~243.7 yards and is ranked ~105th.
Other key matchups to consider in this game are as follows:
- Red-zone comparison – The Aggies rank 26th in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score on ~76.6% of trips. Missouri State’s offense, on the other hand, converts ~83.3% of red-zone trips. That matchup suggests the high-leverage scoring region may favor the Bears.
- Pace & total implications – Missouri State’s average combined points this season is 56.3, which is higher than the 50.5 total set in the odds. However, we must consider New Mexico as well. The team has an average of ~51.2 combined points in its last 3 outings, which is lower than this game’s total.
- Intangibles – The Bears may have the extra value as the road favorites, given their recent road form that includes a win over Middle Tennessee. However, the Aggies have the home-dog appeal, especially when you consider their recent home record with 3 wins in 3 home games. They also have matchup advantages in passing.
- Conference rivalry factor – Both teams know each other in this rivalry. That familiarity could mean tighter execution for both.
Key Betting Angles & Metrics
Missouri State is the slight favorite by 1.5 points. The small margin signals evenly matched teams. Hence, there is a potential “value pick” on either side.
As to who covers, Missouri State has covered when it was the favorite a couple of times this season. Still, I’d recommend you keep an eye on the lines. If they move toward +2 or +2.5 for New Mexico, then that might signal sharp money backing on the dog, who, by the way, currently offers “dog with home field” value.
The total for this game from my last check is 50.5 points. Both teams’ recent averages are around 50 to 56, which means the number is fair. But I believe it is still slightly tilted toward under.
Missouri State games have been lower-scoring than their yardage might suggest. You also have New Mexico State’s rushing woes, which suggest fewer sustained drives for this game. Still, Missouri’s red-zone efficiency and New Mexico’s pass offense suggest a potential for scoring bursts.
The Aggies’ weaker rush defense and red-zone vulnerability are open to exploitation. However, Missouri State will have to get into passing-first mode and convert red-zone trips.
Missouri State might be the slight favorite, but NMSU can increase its upset potential by forcing its opponent into long, grinding drives. It can do that through short-yardage runs to win the turnover/takeaway battle.
The home field may bring crowd noise to favor the home team. New Mexico might also get the edge from the midweek game because of the travel fatigue on the Bears.
For injuries, Missouri State’s quarterback, Jacob Clark, is questionable, along with other key players. Any new injury reports or lineup changes will shift the value. As such, I recommend you recommend you monitor the pre-game release.
Road favorites in midweek underdog scenarios often present hidden value on the home team, in this case, New Mexico. As for the small spread of 1.5, it shows that sportsbooks view this game as a near coin flip. Slight edges in the matchup data may swing the value.
Prediction & Score Projection
My projected score is Missouri State 27, New Mexico State 24.
Why I Go For That
Missouri State has the passing attack and the red-zone conversion to pull this off. It also has the cleanest win approach for either team, from my observations.
I understand that the Aggies have the home-field advantage and a slight edge in pass offense compared to Missouri State’s pass defense. However, their run game limitation and time-of-possession disadvantage indicate they will likely struggle to be consistent.
My projections give the Aggies the ability to stay close (24 points), but not enough to overtake the Bears. That matches with the small spread of 1.5, another indication of how tight the game will be. Even so, the value still leans to the visitor, Missouri.
Implied Wins & Percentages
The moneyline, -118 for Missouri State, gives the Bears a 54.13% implied win probability. Based on that, plus my projection (27-24), I see the Bears winning ~57% of scenarios and covering ~55% of the time.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
1️⃣ Best Bet – Missouri State -115 (Confidence 7/10)
Professional Insight
Missouri State showed us it can win tight one-possession games with its performance against Middle Tennessee (22-20). That ability, you’d agree, is crucial when the spread is under 2.
The team also has a passing game of ~265 yards per game, which provides a consistent scoring route even when the game stalls. You have the higher red-zone conversion rate of 83%+, which gives the Bears a measurable edge in capitalizing on limited chances.
When it comes to the tempo, the Bears control the tempo better than New Mexico State. I say that because of the Bears’ positive time-of-possession differential, +2 min 39 sec per game.
New Mexico State has a turnover-dependent defense, but that defense can’t rely solely on takeaways against Missouri. That is especially true since the Missouri State offense protects the ball relatively well (only 1.1 turnovers per game)..
2️⃣ Best Bet – Missouri State -1.5 (Confidence 6/10)
Professional Insight
Missouri State’s defense is mid-tier, but it still matches up well against the Aggies team that averages just 66.7 rushing yards per game (136th FBS). That matchup reduces big-play ground threats.
I expect efficient drives through the air. That is because the Bears’ passing success rate (~47%) matches up against MNSU’s pass defense efficiency (~57% completion allowed). Also, if Missouri State reaches its average of 27 points, covering 1.5 becomes highly probable since NMSU hasn’t topped 24 points in 3 of its 5 games.
I do recommend you account for the midweek travel and altitude. Both could tighten the contest. Hence, you’ll be better off with a smaller-unit stake on this one compared to the ML.
3️⃣ Best Bet – Under 50.5 (Confidence: 5.5/10)
Professional Insight
Both teams have a combined average that sits well below 50.5, giving a 6-7 point cushion (MOST 21.7 PPG + NMSU 23.0 PPG = 44.7 PPG). They also rank outside the top 100 when it comes to rushing offense, meaning you can expect fewer explosive plays and more clock-draining drives.
The defenses bend, but they don’t break. Each defense allows less than 30 points per game, which, again, fits an under narrative. The only thing that could change that is if turnovers gift short fields.
Night games in Las Cruces often trend slightly under due to the dry air and wind. These marginally impact kicking range and deep-ball accuracy.
The historical form is another thing to consider. Missouri State games have gone under in 4 of 6 this year. For NMSU, the same has happened in 3 straight home games.
You can expect a low-tempo opening. Situational passing will likely follow before we have a final landing around 27-24 (51 total).
Lines for Missouri State vs New Mexico State are already on the move—Missouri opened at -1.5, but sharp action has shifted value on both sides. Track live odds and compare markets at our trusted football sportsbooks.
Risk Factors & Watch Points
Keep the following in mind:
- Turnover margin: The Aggies could flip momentum and cover or win outright if they force multiple turnovers.
- Weather/Travel fatigue: The road team fatigue could cause kicker/special team issues.
- In-game adjustments: Missouri State will likely struggle if it can’t shift to air attacks from a failing run game.
- Late-game execution: in tight finals (27-24 prediction), one or two plays are crucial, and special teams or field positions can make a notable difference.
- Injury updates: New QB injury reports or those on the NMSU pass defense can materially change the outlook.
- Pace & tempo: The total may go over if the Aggies push the tempo and force more positions. But if the Bears control the clock with short drives, then the under is more likely.
Wrap-Up & Best Bet Summary
Final Score Prediction: Missouri State 27, New Mexico State 24
This game is tight and evenly matched, but there is a slight lean to Missouri State on the road because of the passing edge and red-zone efficiency. The Aggies are strong at home but limited on the ground.
We have a narrow spread, with a small confidence margin, and the home underdog. These give a slight edge that may be enough for profit. However, I wouldn’t over-bet big if I were you.
Play ML or -1.5 on Missouri State and consider the under if you expect a slow pace. With that said, my final score prediction is
