Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction and Best Bets for October 6, 2025)
Who’s playing in primetime this week? The Kansas City Chiefs are headed to EverBank Stadium in Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars for Monday Night Football! Kickoff is at 8:15 pm ET.
This one is all about the two QBs; Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are two of the best in the NFL. Lawrence is back this season after missing seven games due to a concussion and a shoulder injury, and they were eliminated from postseason play without him.
The Chiefs started out 0-2 this year but have bounced back and are now 2-2; they want to stake their claim as the AFC favs. And the Jaguars have a better record of 3-1; they want to show that they are rightfully among the AFC elite.
Here’s a quick snapshot of the betting odds for the game:
- Chiefs –3.5 (–110)
- Jaguars +3.5 (–110)
- O/U 45.5
Are we going with KC or Jacksonville? Keep reading to find out! We’ll also cover everything you need to know, including both teams’ recent form, betting odds and movement, the main matchups to keep your eyes on, any injuries or roster changes, possible advantages, x-factors, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
- Date & Time: Monday, October 6, at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- How to Watch: Monday Night Football broadcasts nationally on ABC and ESPN
Recent Form & Context
The Chiefs have gotten a little too used to winning behind Mahomes’ control of the offense, but their passing game is meh because of the young receivers being rotated in. Jacksonville has been better behind Lawrence and Etienne; they have way more balance on early downs!
Kansas City Chiefs
- Offense: Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,008 yards with 7 touchdowns in four games; he’s completing 69% of his passes. The passing game runs through Travis Kelce on key downs, and rookie Xavier Worthy has given the team vertical separation on the outside.
- Defense: The unit is allowing 94 rushing yards per game, and it’s anchored by better gap discipline up front. But they’ve given up gains in the intermediate zones against spread offenses.
- Situational note: Kansas City is 6–2 ATS in its last eight road games as a favorite of three points or less.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Offense: Trevor Lawrence has posted 1,026 passing yards and 8 touchdowns on 7.5 yards per attempt. Their ground game is built around Travis Etienne; he has 302 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
- Defense: The group is pushed forward by a ball-hawking secondary that has already racked up 6 interceptions this season, but they’ve been exposed against top QBs and allowed 250+ yards twice.
- Situational note: Jacksonville has gone 4–1 ATS in its last five primetime home games.
Betting Market / Odds Analysis
Before you put any money on the line, you need to know the odds! Here they are as posted on FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | -3.5 (-105) | -190 | Over 45.5 (-108) |
Jaguars | +3.5 (-115) | +160 | Under 45.5 (-112) |
The Under is carrying heavier juice at –112, compared to the Over at –108; that means bettors are siding with a lower-scoring game because of the caliber of both defenses.
Movement
- If the line pushes to the Chiefs -3.5, the Jaguars become more attractive with that extra half-point.
- If it drops to -2.5, Kansas City will probably get more support; crossing below the field-goal mark changes the math.
Main Matchups to Watch
Here’s what we (and everyone else) will be watching when the Chiefs and the Jaguars take the field:
- Mahomes vs. Jaguars Secondary: Jacksonville gives up 6.3 yards per pass attempt allowed, and that’s up among the NFL’s higher marks. Mahomes needs to hit on timing routes early before zone coverage tightens, or the passing attack could stall out.
- Chiefs’ O-Line vs. Jaguars Pass Rush: Jacksonville’s edge defenders have pressure upside when the blockers are misaligned. If Kansas City’s tackles fail to win one-on-one matchups within 2.5 seconds, Lawrence’s rushers or backside stunts might overwhelm KC’s protection.
- Travis Kelce vs. Jaguars Linebackers: The Jaguars allow opponents a red zone TD rate that ranks really high in the NFL. Kelce’s route depth and short-area agility expose mismatches over the middle, especially inside the 20.
- Jaguars WRs vs. Chiefs Secondary: The Jaguars convert ~37.3% of their third downs. So when Lawrence faces 3rd & long, he’ll target deep options, and the Chiefs’ corners have to avoid getting burned by deep crossers or overthrows.
- Third Downs / Red Zone: Kansas City is converting 34% on third downs, and that’s near the bottom of the league. Jacksonville is at 46%; they move the sticks at a higher rate. In the red zone? KC’s defense has forced more field goals, and Jacksonville has allowed touchdowns on around two-thirds of opponent trips.
Injury Watch / Roster Updates
Who’s playing and who’s sitting this game out? Here’s what the latest roster update tells us:
Chiefs
- Kristian Fulton (CB, ankle): He was limited in practice, so his game status is listed as questionable
- Omarr Norman-Lott (DT, shoulder): He did not practice Saturday and is listed as questionable
- All other listed Chiefs players (Mahomes, Kelce, Brown, Danna, Omenihu, Smith-Schuster, Taylor, Winchester, Worthy) participated fully in practice on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
Jaguars
- Yasir Abdullah (LB, hamstring): Did not practice
- Travon Walker (DE, wrist): Did not practice; his game status is listed as questionable
- Dyami Brown (WR, shoulder): Brown was limited all three days
- Ezra Cleveland (OL, concussion/ankle): Limited
- Chuma Edoga (OL, knee): Limited
- Anton Harrison (OL, elbow): Limited
- Patrick Mekari (OL, knee): Limited
- Wyatt Milum (OL, knee): Limited
- Eric Murray (S, neck): Limited
- Bhayshul Tuten (RB, shoulder): Limited
Headline Injury Note
Travon Walker looks like he’ll be a game-time decision after he underwent wrist surgery and has been limited; if he does end up playing, he’s expected to wear a brace.
Edge & X-Factors
- Coaching Edge: Andy Reid is 2–0 against Doug Pederson since Pederson took over in Jacksonville, and his record in primetime obviously speaks for itself. Pederson knows Reid’s system from their time together in Philly, but Kansas City has executed better in these head-to-head matchups.
- Experience Edge: Kansas City’s roster has years of postseason mileage, and Jacksonville is still building toward the league’s top level. That difference usually rears its head in the fourth quarter.
- X-Factor: Turnovers. Trevor Lawrence has 4 interceptions in four games, and Kansas City’s defense has already forced 7 turnovers. If Jacksonville can’t protect the ball? The Chiefs get an obvious statistical advantage.
- Crowd Impact: Jacksonville’s primetime vibe is pretty rowdy, but Mahomes has logged a passer rating above 100 in five of his last six road night games; a loud and hostile crowd doesn’t phase him.
Our Best Bets
Looking at the market, there are three angles that we really like! Here are what we believe are the best bets for this game:
1. Chiefs –3.5 (Confidence 4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have one of the NFL’s best cover rates in primetime, particularly when they’re the short favorites.
- Jacksonville’s front (Josh Allen, Travon Walker) can pressure QBs, but their secondary has broken down against better passers. Mahomes’ ability to extend plays and hit receivers downfield matches up really well against that weakness.
- Kansas City converts 65% of red-zone trips into touchdowns. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed touchdowns on 67% of red-zone possessions. That margin is important when the spread is only a field goal!
Risks
- If Allen and Walker win early in the snap, Mahomes could be forced into making shorter throws, and Kansas City will have to settle for measly field goals.
- Lawrence’s development and crowd noise at home definitely increase the challenge if KC wastes drives.
2. Under 45.5 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Kansas City has held three of four opponents under 20 points, and they rank in the top 10 in scoring defense. Their pass rush decreases clean pockets and forces delayed possessions.
- Jacksonville’s defense has forced opponents into third-and-long on over a third of a series, and that’s a main factor in keeping points off the scoreboard.
- The last two head-to-head games between the Chiefs and the Jaguars finished with 44 and 40 total points, so both were below this line. Red-zone stops kept the scoring capped.
- Sportsbooks are shading the Under (–120 vs –102), and that shows that oddsmakers admire the defenses more than the public perception would suggest.
Risks
- Mahomes and Lawrence are both capable of hitting chunk plays that obliterate defensive wins. A couple of long touchdowns? That could ruin the Under.
- If a team is behind by multiple scores, expect more passing volume, which will raise the total play count and points.
3. Travis Kelce Anytime TD (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Kelce leads the team in red-zone targets despite managed reps, and Mahomes always looks for him on option routes and crossers inside the 20.
- Jacksonville’s linebackers and safeties have had a lot of issues against elite tight ends. Kelce’s route discipline and ability to find space make him really hard to cover.
- For critical downs, Mahomes trusts Kelce’s timing above every other pass catcher. That kind of trust carries a lot of weight in primetime games.
Risks
- If Jacksonville doubles Kelce with a safety over the top, Mahomes might have to redirect to wideouts or backs in scoring areas.
- Kelce is healthy and active, but Kansas City has a history of limiting his reps in certain scenarios, and that decreases his touchdown chances.
Odds for Chiefs vs Jaguars are shifting—KC opened at –3 with juice at –118, but a move to –3.5 could swing value toward Jacksonville. Track line changes with our top football betting sites and secure the best odds.
The Jaguars Aren’t Ready to Beat Kansas City
We really wish we could tell you that the Jaguars are gonna beat the Chiefs, but we’d be lying to you.
Unless there’s a Hail Mary of some sort that nobody sees coming, the Chiefs have the advantage in this matchup; even on the road, they’re the favorites by a short number. Jacksonville will keep it competitive, but they just aren’t on the same level as Mahomes & Co. behind Andy Reid.
Best Bets Recap
- Chiefs –3.5 (–105): ★★★★☆
- Under 45.5 (–112):★★★☆☆
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD:★★★☆☆
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 20
Kansas City will cover the short spread by finishing drives with touchdowns in the red zone, and defensive fronts force longer down-and-distance spots, keeping the score Under; Mahomes processes coverage faster than Lawrence does and converts more possessions into points!
