Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos Prediction & Top Bets (September 29, 2025)
The Bengals are catching more than a touchdown in Denver. With Joe Burrow still out, all eyes will be on the backup quarterback. Like you, we do wonder if the backup quarterback can keep things competitive or allow the Broncos to cruise at home.
This matchup is a notable feature, as it is a Monday Night Football spotlight at Mile High. We also have the altitude factor and a Denver team that is hoping to bounce back from close losses in the campaign.
We got the current betting lines via DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Bengals | +7.5 (-110) | +380 | Over 44.5 (-105) |
Broncos | -7.5 (-110) | -500 | Under 44.5 (-115) |
If you are looking for a breakdown of QB play, including offensive/defensive matchups, then we’ve got it right here. We’ll consider key injuries and betting angles as well before giving you our best bets with confidence ratings.
Game Info
- Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) vs. Denver Broncos (1-2)
- Date & Time: Monday, September 29, at 8:15 pm ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- How To Watch: ABC
Game Context & Storylines
Cincinnati Bengals
- The Quarterback Situation: Joe Burrow remains sidelined even after a successful surgery. His recovery is expected to last for a few months. In the meantime, Jake Browning has stepped in to start, but he has a few troubles of his own. He has had past struggles with turnovers, and his decision-making skills under pressure aren’t exactly reassuring. Then, you also have his limited pocket presence to worry about.
- Bengals’ Collapse:
- The team comes off a 48-10 blowout loss to Minnesota. We saw the defense surrender huge plays while the overall offense lacked rhythm. This form raises red flags about the team’s morale and coaching adjustments with Burrow on the sidelines.
- Injuries & Availability: TE Noah Fant is ruled out for a concussion. His absence will further limit offensive versatility.
- Motivational Edge: The Bengals will have to claw their way to a win without Burrow. We will likely see renewed efforts to fight. Only, this time, the fight will be to avoid being written off early.
Denver Broncos
- The Quarterback Situation: Rookie Bo Nix continues to impress us with his mobility, composure, and ability to keep Denver in games until the final minutes. Nonetheless, we are still in doubt about Nix’s ability to finish strong instead of falling victim to another late-game collapse.
- Denver’s Recent Woes:
- The Broncos lost back-to-back heartbreakers on last-second field goals. These were in its games against the Chargers and the Colts. Still, the team has executed well for most of the game. The only primary drawback is that they execute late.
- The defensive unit shows strong pass rush metrics (Zach Allen, Nik Bonitto) and elite cornerback play (Patrick Surtain II).
- Injuries & Availability: We are still monitoring RB rotation (J.K. Dobbins usage. There are also minor O-line drugs. Nonetheless, we expect starters to play.
- Motivational Edge: To the Broncos, this game is an opportunity to turn the tables and avoid 3 straight narrow losses. You can also expect urgency as the team will be at home in prime time.
Betting Market Analysis
- The line opened near Broncos -7 and quickly moved to -7.5 as public and sharp bettors aligned on Denver.
- The moneyline shows heavy favoritism toward Denver at -520, making it tough for us to justify it unless parlayed.
- The total has held steady at 44.5, with a slight juice to the under. That suggests that books anticipate Cincinnati’s offense to struggle.
- When it comes to the public perception, there is a heavy fade of the Bengals after last week’s meltdown. Sharp bettors appear to agree, but some value-seekers may see a “buy low” on Cincinnati +7.5.
Spread/ATS Breakdown
- Case for Broncos -7.5
- Nix against Browning is lopsided, and we consider that a QB mismatch.
- You also have Denver’s pass rush against the Bengals’ struggling O-line. Browning could face constant pressure, and that won’t be good for the Bengals.
- Denver gets the home-field edge here with the altitude and Mile High crowd. Historically, the team often gets a boost in prime-time games.
- Case for Bengals +7.5
- Some teams rebound against inflated lines after a blowout loss, which is what the Bengals might do. As such, you should consider the overreaction angle.
- All Browning needs is time, and if that happens, we will see that Cincinnati’s WR corps (Chase, Higgins, and Boyd) is still dangerous.
- Denver has had late-game struggles. If the Bengals stay on track, this loophole might be the backdoor cover potential.
- ATS Projection: Broncos will likely control most of the game, but there is still a risk of a late Bengals TD narrowing the margin.
Over/Under Analysis (44.5)
- Why the Over could hit
- The Broncos’ offense at home could score in the high 20s/30s.
- Cincinnati, on the other hand, still has capable WRs that can bring in explosive plays, even with a backup QB.
- Then, you also have the possibility of the Bengals abandoning the run game for a pass-heavy approach (more possessions) if the Broncos get out early.
- Why the Under could cash
- The Bengals’ offense stalls repeatedly under Browning.
- Denver might get the lead and lean on the run with Dobbins, draining the clock.
- The Broncos’ defense might shut down scoring in the red zone.
- Projection: There is a slight lean toward Over if you trust Denver’s ability to put up points. However, we’d go with Under as the safer option if you believe the Bengals offense is too broken.
Props & Side Bets (Optional Add-On)
- J.K. Dobbins Anytime TD: With the high red zone usage, Denver will likely lean on the ground game inside the 10.
- Browning Over INTs (0.5): We consider this option because the strong pass rush and forced throws give room for a turnover probability.
- Ja’Marr Chase Over Receptions: The Bengals may force-feed Chase on short routes to help Browning.
Best Bets and Confidence Levels
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Broncos -7.5 (–110) | The team has the QB edge, the home field, and pass rush domination. On the other hand, the Bengals are in freefall. | 7/10 |
Over 44.5 (-105) | The Broncos could score 28+, but the Bengals have weapons for garbage-time points. | 6/10 |
J.K. Dobbins Anytime TD (–130) | Expected red-zone volume vs Bengals’ porous run defense. | 5/10 |
Lines for Bengals vs Broncos are on the move—spreads shifted from -7 to -7.5 and totals could adjust before MNF. Track the latest odds at any of our football betting sites to secure the best value.
Risks & Red Flags
- Backdoor cover risk: For this scenario, the Broncos will lead comfortably, but the Bengals score a late TD vs prevent defense.
- The Broncos’ execution issues: We’ve seen Denver blow late leads already this year.
- Turnover variance: A defensive TD or special teams miscue could swing spread/total unexpectedly.
- Injury news: Any surprise scratches on the Denver O-line or secondary could impact the team’s confidence.
Betting Takeaway: Trust Denver, Beware Backdoor Risk
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 27 – Bengals 17
Broncos -7.5 is our strongest play with 7/10 confidence. You can consider Over 44.5 if you expect Cincinnati to contribute late points. Player props like J.K. Dobbins’ Anytime TD can add value, but overall, consider the Bengals’ WR talent and Denver’s late-game issues.
