Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals TNF Prediction (September 25, 2025)
It’s already Week 4 of the NFL season, and Thursday Night Football brings us an NFC battle between the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals.
Arizona is hosting Seattle at the State Farm Arena. Kickoff is at 8:15 pm ET, a mere 1.5 points separate the teams, and both want to get a leg up in a super competitive division. They’re neck and neck so far this season; both have 2-1 records.
The market has the squads at almost even odds; the Seahawks –126 ML vs. the Cardinals +108 ML.
Who’s gonna win this one? Keep scrolling to see all of the details, including game context, stakes, the latest betting odds, team breakdowns, historical trends, analytics, game projections, and our picks for the four best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Seattle Seahawks (2-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-1)
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 25, at 8:15 pm ET (5:15 pm PT)
- Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
- How To Watch: Thursday Night Football streaming on Amazon Prime
Game Context & Stakes
Here’s what’s on the line for this game and how Seattle and Arizona have been performing on the gridiron:
- Division importance: NFC West matchups carry more weight early on in the season; getting a win here gives a team head-to-head leverage later on in the season.
- Seattle offense check: Sam Darnold remains active, and he has support from Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. Their run/pass split has been good, so play-action has worked. Protection has held up well, although the right tackle spot is being monitored.
- Arizona defense performance: The Cardinals have had a fair amount of trouble generating consistent pressure without blitzing heavily. Their secondary has given up medium-to-deep throws when opponents stretch the field.
- Home/road factor / ATS trends: Arizona is 7–3 against the spread in its last 10 home games. Seattle is 1–0 ATS on the road in 2025.
Injuries / Availability
- Arizona: James Conner is now out for the season with an ankle injury; WR Zay Jones is in concussion protocol and did not practice; OL Kelvin Beachum is listed as a non-participant (knee); Paris Johnson Jr. is limited.
- Seattle: OT Josh Jones (ankle) and FB Robbie Ouzts (ankle) did not practice this week; a number of other players are limited.
- Rest & travel: Seattle has to travel cross-country on short notice: Arizona is at home, so there is no travel-related fatigue at play, and they’ve preserved prep time.
Betting Odds
Ready to place your bets? Here are the current odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Seahawks | -1.5 (-108) | -126 | Over 43.5 (-105) |
Cardinals | +1.5 (-112) | +108 | Under 43.5 (-115) |
Line Movement & Market Sentiment
- Opening vs Current: The line is tight, so any change could tell us where the big money is going. But so far? It’s holding onto Seahawks’ favoritism.
- Public vs Handle: Expect more public tickets to come in on Seattle due to its name recognition. But the pro action might lean toward Arizona due to injury-driven value.
- Sharp Influence: Watch for reverse line moves. If money comes in on the Cardinals, the spread might move toward +1 or even a pick’em.
- Narrative: Casual bettors could overrate Seattle’s consistency, but Arizona still has the home-field advantage, so under the right game circumstances, the Cardinals could benefit.
Team Portraits & Matchup Breakdown
Seattle is in better shape health-wise and has the better form; Arizona is dealing with injuries in the backfield and offensive line.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has limited mistakes on offense and forced opposing quarterbacks into low-percentage throws.
Offense
- QB play: Sam Darnold is hitting 70% of passes with four touchdowns and two picks. His best work has been in the intermediate range, where Arizona has had a hard time.
- WR corps: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been really reliable on third downs, and Cooper Kupp continues to win vertically when the protection holds up.
- Offensive line: There have been five sacks allowed across three games. Charles Cross has held up well at left tackle, but the right edge has been softer and will be tested by Arizona’s speed rushers.
Defense
- Run defense: Opponents are averaging under 100 rushing yards per game. Without James Conner? Arizona doesn’t have a solid threat inside.
- Secondary: Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen have kept quarterbacks under 6.5 yards per attempt when they’ve been targeted, and that’s one of the lowest marks in the NFC.
- Pass rush: Boye Mafe and Uchenna Nwosu have combined for five sacks. Seattle is in the top 10 for hurry percentage, and Arizona’s shuffled line could give up more pressure.
- Track record: The Seahawks have beaten Arizona seven straight times, and four of those have been in Glendale.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is at 2–1 but comes into this game short-handed in the backfield and with injuries on the offensive line.
Offense
- QB play: Kyler Murray has completed 67% of passes with four touchdowns and two picks. He’s still extending plays with his legs, but has taken some hard hits behind a reshuffled line.
- WR depth: With Zay Jones being sidelined, Elijah Higgins and Michael Wilson have been the primary options, although neither has topped 80 yards this season.
- Run game: Without James Conner, backups are averaging under 3.8 yards per carry, and that forces Murray to shoulder more of the offense.
Defense
- Strengths: The front seven has produced seven sacks in three games, all led by Mack Wilson Sr. They’ve limited opponents to 3.9 yards per carry.
- Weaknesses: The secondary has given up six passing touchdowns and over 240 yards per game. Red-zone coverage has repeatedly broken down.
- Game factors: Arizona gets the benefit of home field on a short week, but its lineup uncertainty across both units isn’t great.
Main Matchups to Watch
- Seattle corners vs. Arizona receivers: Woolen and Witherspoon have forced quarterbacks into shorter, contested throws. Arizona needs Marvin Harrison Jr. to stretch coverage vertically and Michael Wilson to win in traffic if they want to move the ball.
- Arizona’s front seven vs. Seattle’s run game: The Cardinals’ interior has held runners to under four yards a carry, but Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are built to finish runs past first contact. If they’re consistently picking up four or five on early downs? That changes how Arizona can defend.
- QB protection and blitz response: Seattle has generated pressure without resorting to heavy blitzing, and Murray has already been hit too much behind an injured line. Sam Darnold has managed the collapsing pockets better; he’s using quicker throws to limit sacks.
- Special teams: Jason Myers has hit from 50+ this season, and Seattle’s coverage teams have limited returns. Chad Ryland is still dependable inside 45, and Arizona’s return unit has the speed to change field position if they find the space.
Historical Trends & Analytics
- Head-to-head: The Seahawks have won 7 straight against Arizona, and they’ve covered in 5 of those.
- Totals: The Under has hit in 4 of the last 6 meetings, including 3 in a row in Arizona.
- Seattle as road favorite: 4–2 SU and ATS in their last 6 games laying points away from home.
- Arizona as home underdog: 3–7 SU, 4–6 ATS in their last 10 at State Farm Stadium.
- DVOA rankings: Seahawks offense is 10th, defense 8th, and special teams 15th; Cardinals offense is 21st, defense 25th, and special teams 20th.
- EPA/play splits: Seattle ranks top 12 in passing EPA, middle of the pack in rushing EPA; Arizona is in the bottom 10 in both.
- Win probability models: ESPN’s predictor gives Arizona a 51.9% chance, despite the Seahawks being the slight betting favs.
Power Ratings, Projections, and Simulations
- Model spread: Projection makes it Seahawks –2.7, which is a modest edge compared to the market’s –1.5.
- Vegas comparison: The current line of –1.5 still leaves a small advantage on Seattle if you trust the model.
- Simulations: Seattle covers 56% of runs, and Arizona covers 44%.
- Expected pace: The projected yardage and drive counts point toward a mid-40s outcome; the Over hits if both quarterbacks connect downfield, but Under stays in play if drives stall out inside the 30.
Risks, Wild Cards & Gameplan Scenarios
Before you make your bets, you have to look at all of the variables! Here are the risks, possible game scripts, and how it’ll affect wagers.
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- Seattle’s offensive line injuries could leave Sam Darnold exposed and change how their offense operates.
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- Arizona turnovers, especially if Murray forces throws under pressure, could hand the Seahawks extra possessions.
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- A special teams score or defensive touchdown would change the game and the betting landscape.
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- Scenario A: Seattle builds an early lead and turns to Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet to drain the clock. That outcome keeps the Under more likely.
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- Scenario B: Arizona connects on explosive plays through Harrison Jr. or Wilson, which forces Seattle to respond. That outcome favors the Over.
If Seattle controls possession, the Under has the edge. If Arizona stretches the field and scores quickly, the Over becomes much more attractive.
Our Best Bets
What have we got for you in terms of best bets for this game? These four:
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Seahawks –1.5 (–108) | Seattle’s secondary matches up better, and its defense has forced multiple turnovers already this season. | 6/10 |
Seahawks –126 | This is a lower risk than the spread and works as a nice parlay anchor. | 5/10 |
Under 43.5 (–115) | NFC West games are typically lower-scoring, and both defenses tend to tighten up in the red zone. | 7/10 |
Alt/Prop: 1H Under 21.5 | Expect to see cautious play-calling in the first quarter before adjustments open up the game. | 6/10 |
Lines for Seahawks vs. Cardinals are shifting fast as kickoff nears—spreads, totals, and props can all move. Compare the latest odds with our football betting sites to lock in the best value.
Seahawks Supremacy or Cardinals Conquest?
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 17
The Seahawks cover –1.5 and the game total stays under 43.5!
We’re going with the Seahawks in this matchup. Why? Because its defense has been much stronger against the pass and way more disciplined against the run, and that gives them a pretty big advantage over Arizona. The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t been able to sustain drives regularly, which is why it makes it so hard to see them keep up with Seattle over four quarters.
That defensive advantage is why the Seahawks –1.5 is our best play. The total also points toward the Under, since both teams have shown some limitations when it comes to finishing red-zone trips.
Stick to your bankroll plan, size your bets properly, and always check for the latest injury reports and conditions before kickoff!
Best Bets Recap
- Spread: Seahawks –1.5 (6/10)
- Moneyline: Seahawks ML –126 (5/10)
- Total: Under 43.5 (7/10)
- Alt/Prop: 1H Under 21.5 (6/10)
