Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State NCAAF Preview & Prediction (September 19, 2025)
Can the Tulsa Golden Hurricane give us an in-state rivalry worth watching, or will the Oklahoma State Cowboys get the best of them and cement a rebound with authority? The Oklahoma State Cowboys have had an inconsistent start to this season, making this match a pivotal point for them to turn things around. But they’ll have to grind their way past the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, who are also looking to correct a weak start.
When it comes to the favorites, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have the upper hand. However, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane has a history of playing feisty against bigger programs.
With the spread set at 12.5 and the over/under at 55.5, oddsmakers expect points but not a blowout. We will analyze the records, statistics, betting trends, and matchup analysis to determine where you should look for real betting value.
Game Details
- Matchup: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-2) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-1)
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
- How to Watch: ESPN
Game Background and Context
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-2)
Team Records & Recent Form
- The team opened the season with a win over an FCS opponent (the ACU). However, it couldn’t keep up the momentum, losing in its last two outings.
- Tulsa’s offense has leaned on RB Dominic Richardson. Even worse, the QB play has been shaky.
- The team’s defense has shown flashes, but we still see struggles against faster and more physical teams.
Key Players & Injury Notes
- RB Dominic Richardson is capable of 100+ yards if he receives the volume.
- WR Zion Booker is a deep threat, but his performance depends on QB accuracy.
- The team’s QB rotation is unsettled, resulting in concerns about its consistency.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-1)
Team Records & Recent Form
- The team did win the first match, but that was against a weaker team, UT Martin. We saw a different story when they faced Oregon in Week 2.
- One of the reasons for the team’s loss to Oregon comes from the flux in its offensive identity. The ground game has been inconsistent, plagued by quarterback turnover issues.
- On the defensive end, the team isn’t faring too well, with the defense giving up chunk plays. Tackling also remains a recurring issue.
Key Players & Injury Notes
- Like Tulsa, the QB situation with the Cowboys is unstable. They’ll need efficiency to avoid turnovers.
- The RB corps has not produced explosive plays yet this season, calling into question the likelihood of doing so in this game.
- The team’s defensive secondary is vulnerable to big plays, especially over the middle.
Heat to Head/Rivalry Context
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a decisive lead in the all-time series.
- Tulsa hasn’t beaten the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater since the early 1990s.
- This game will be a battle for state bragging rights, where the Cowboys have historically dominated.
- Tulsa might be the underdog, but they’ve shown hard play in this matchup. As such, we expect Tulsa to be a tricky underdog for this game.
Statistical Matchups
| Stat | Tulsa | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
Scoring Offense | ~23 PPG | ~28 PPG (inflated vs. weaker competition) |
Defensive Scoring Allowed | ~31 PPG | ~35 PPG (torched by Oregon, allowed nearly 600 yards) |
Yards per Play | ~5.2 PPG | Allowing ~6.8 YPP |
Turnover Margin | Even (neutral trend) | Negative, turnovers have killed drives |
The Betting Odds and What They Imply (via ESPN BET)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Tulsa | +11.5 (-115) | +340 | Over 55.5 (-105) |
Oklahoma State | -11.5 (-105) | -450 | Under 55.5 (-115) |
Don’t forget to double-check the odds—lines can shift quickly, and staying updated ensures you’re betting with the latest and most accurate numbers.
- Implied Probability
- Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys projected to win by ~2 TDs
- Moneyline: The Oklahoma State Cowboys’ win probability is ~84%.
- Over/Under: Total projects mid-50s scoring game
- Oddsmakers indicate a slight lean to under (juiced at -115)
- The market confidence in the Oklahoma State Cowboys is high. However, there is hesitation to price spread beyond two TDs.
- The Tulsa backers see value in a rivalry game where motivation can keep it close.
Key Angles & Betting Considerations
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys have covered only one of their last 6 games against FBS opponents when they were double-digit favorites.
- Tulsa historically covers in rivalry spots—3-1 ATS last 4 vs. the Cowboys.
- The Tulsa team could use its run game to exploit the Cowboys’ weak rush defense and shorten the game.
- A key question to consider when it comes to the spread is whether the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ offense can generate enough separation to cover.
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys’ defense leaks big plays, which favors “Over.”
- Tulsa’s offense has been equally inconsistent, resulting in a heavy lean towards “Under.”
- If Tulsa runs well in this game, the pace will slow down, favoring “Under,” but if the Oklahoma State Cowboys pass effectively, they’ll get a shootout potential that favors “Over.”
- When it comes to historical totals, the last three clashes between these teams have averaged 55.3 points, which is right at the current line.
- Oklahoma State Cowboys -450: Not playable.
- Tulsa +340: The bet is a long shot, but if the Cowboys continue in their turnover struggles, an upset is likely to happen.
- Our recommendation is to attack the spread or total instead.
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a big home advantage as they’ll play in Boone Pickens Stadium.
- Tulsa might turn its position as the in-state underdog into motivation.
- The game has a bounce-back narrative for the Cowboys after their poor outing with Oregon.
Best Bets & Picks
| Bet | Why It Makes Sense | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Tulsa +11.5 (-115) | The Cowboys haven’t shown consistency on offense. Also, the rivalry game tends to stay tighter. | 7/10 |
Over 55.5 (-105) | Both teams have porous defenses, and turnovers could set up short fields. | 6/10 |
Pass / Lean | Tulsa +340 | Things are too steep to back the Cowboys. Even so, the Tulsa small sprinkle is only for risk-takers. | 3/10 |
Expect the Oklahoma State Cowboys to Prevail, But Don’t Ignore the Underdog Value
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 24
The Oklahoma State Cowboys should win this game. However, we should also expect the team’s struggles to dominate consistently.
Tulsa’s running game gives the team a path to keep it within two TDs. However, defensive lapses from both sides will make the total lean towards “Over.” The best bet for this match is Tulsa +12.5, and that comes with solid confidence.
Get set for the Oklahoma State vs Tulsa showdown! Compare spreads, totals, and props on our trusted football sportsbooks to secure the best value and make smarter wagers.
