Top Heisman Trophy Candidates – And How to Bet Them Smart

Stepping into the starting role for the back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs, Stockton inherits both huge expectations and an elite supporting cast. The former blue-chip recruit has some pretty big shoes to fill, but he hasn’t wasted any time showing off his potential; in Georgia’s opener, he tallied four touchdowns (2 passing, 2 rushing), and that means he can be the next star in Athens. Georgia’s offense is loaded, and if Stockton does well, he’ll get Heisman talk playing for a top-5 team.

• Smart Bet: Bet early in the season before Georgia’s marquee matchups (like their rivalry games or SEC Championship) when his odds could shorten. Right now, at ~15:1, he’s a solid value play. The rationale for this is that if Georgia keeps winning and Stockton posts gaudy stats, oddsmakers will quickly adjust. By getting in now, you benefit from any “big-stage” bumps later. Watch Georgia’s offense; if they appear more run-heavy or if Stockton is having a hard time, you should hold off. But given the upside? An early small wager is definitely justified.

Yes, there is another Manning, and the last name comes with heaps more pressure in college football. Now at Texas, Arch Manning (the nephew of Peyton and Eli) is navigating sky-high expectations as a former No. 1 recruit.

The media magnetism around him is insane; he opened as a preseason co-favorite around +650  before he even took a snap. But there have been early missteps (like a Week 1 loss where he looked like a human instead of a Manning), which caused his odds to head into the +1300–+1600 range. The volatility shows both the risk and reward of backing Arch. He has immense talent and the Texas brand behind him, but is also inexperienced as a first-time starter.

• Smart Bet: Treat Manning as a high-variance play. One strategy is to wait and only bet after he has a statement win or monster game; sure, the odds will be shorter then, but you’ll have more certainty that he can live up to the hype. And if you bet him early at longer odds, plan a hedging strategy for the late season. If Arch is a finalist, you could hedge by betting on the other top contender to guarantee some profit. Also, given Texas’s move to the SEC, think about pairing an Arch bet with a Texas conference/title future (or playoff future) as a hedge. And if he falls short of the Heisman but the team wins, your other bet could pay off. Manning’s path here is boom-or-bust, so you have to manage your risk accordingly.

This is a name that Oklahoma fans know really well, and Mateer is emerging nationally after taking over the Sooners’ offense. The double-threat junior transferred from Washington State and has already made a big impact at OU. In an early marquee win over Michigan, Mateer showcased his versatility: 270 passing yards plus 74 rushing yards and 2 TDs on the ground. That kind of playmaking ability, when it’s combined with Oklahoma’s perennial contention, gives Mateer real Heisman upside. Sportsbooks had him near the top at +800 after Week 2 (essentially a co-favorite), and that shows his rapid ascent.

• Smart Bet: If you didn’t grab Mateer’s odds in the offseason, you might wait for a short-term dip; maybe he has a quieter game or two, and then bet before a major spotlight game. The annual Red River Rivalry (OU vs Texas) is a mid-season showdown that usually produces a Heisman moment. If Mateer is playing well going into that game, think about betting him before it, as a big performance there could catapult him to front-runner status, shrinking his odds way down. Use the schedule to your advantage: identify a window to buy in, then possibly cash out or hedge later if he’s in the finalist conversation!

A year ago, Klubnik was Clemson’s next big thing, but a turbulent 2024 season (with offensive struggles) killed his hype. Now the talented junior is looking for redemption, and we’ll see how it plays out.

Clemson has reportedly retooled its offense for 2025, and if Klubnik finds his groove, he has the pedigree to get back in the Heisman chatter. He was among the top preseason candidates before, and some sportsbooks still opened him around +900. But bettors got cold feet; after a lackluster opener this year, Klubnik’s odds moved, and he went down on the board of contenders.

• Smart Bet: Do not wager on Klubnik until you see some proof that Clemson’s offense has turned the corner. The first couple of games will be very telling, so watch Clemson’s scoring and Cade’s stat lines. If the Tigers’ new scheme sparks a return to form (like multiple 300+ yard games and big wins), then investing at his longer odds could be smart, as a turnaround narrative could pick up steam. But if the struggles continue, it’s best to steer clear. Klubnik should only be a conditional bet: pull the trigger if early results show there’s been improvement. There’s upside here, but it hinges totally on Clemson’s offensive trajectory.

It’s really rare for a wide receiver to be a Heisman frontrunner, but this Ohio State freshman is cut from a special cloth. Smith came to Columbus as the nation’s #1 receiver recruit, and he’s wasting no time showing why.

At 6’3″ with game-breaking speed, he’s already making highlight catches that have Buckeye fans (and bettors) talking. Sportsbooks list him around 16:1 to 18:1, which is the highest among non-QBs. Why all of the optimism? Because Ohio State’s offense is a factory for huge receiving numbers, and if Smith puts up big stats, he could follow the path of DeVonta Smith (who won in 2020 as a WR).

• Smart Bet: This is one of the best true longshot values on the board. As a receiver, Smith will need extraordinary performances (like one-handed touchdowns, multiple 200-yard games, viral highlights) to sway voters, but he has that capability. Betting him at +1800 is a bet that he could be the breakout star of 2025. A smart approach is to pair his Heisman bet with Ohio State to win the Big Ten or make the playoff; if Smith is in Heisman contention, Ohio State is probably having a great season, so a conference title bet on OSU  leverages that correlation. And Smith has been attracting a lot of early betting action (a sportsbook reported he already accounts for almost 9% of Heisman tickets, which is a top-3 figure). This means that a lot of people believe he’s the rare WR that is worth the risk. If you agree, get the odds before they shorten any further!

Say hello to the freshman phenom who’s generating serious buzz in Gainesville. DJ Lagway was a five-star recruit and, after an injury to Florida’s veteran QB last year, he stepped in and showed his star potential (he set a school passing record in one outing).

Now a sophomore, Lagway is penciled in as the Gators’ starter and already making moves; he won the job with a strong fall camp and has a burgeoning NIL profile to match his talent. His skillset? A huge arm, mobility, and a fearless mentality that’s reminiscent of Tim Tebow’s early days. But since he’s still a young player, consistency is the concern here.

• Smart Bet: Caution and timing are super important with Lagway. Florida opens the season with manageable games, so wait through the first few weeks to see how Lagway performs as “the guy.” If he comes out firing (like 4 TDs, instant highlight plays), his current +2000 odds will probably drop, and you’ll want to grab whatever value is left. If he has a hard time, you should hold off entirely or look for a longer number later. Use the first few games as your litmus test. Lagway has an immense upside, and it’s enough to possibly crash the Heisman party as an underclassman, but with freshmen QBs, volatility is really high. Think about a small bet if he passes the test, and be ready for a week-to-week watch.

A prototypical pro-style quarterback with a rocket arm, Allar is entering his second year as Penn State’s starter and could be ready for a jump. He has the pedigree (he’s a former 5-star recruit) and has shown moments of brilliance as a sophomore.

Now in his junior year, he also benefits from playing behind an elite defense, which means more wins (a 10-2 or 11-1 PSU team would bolster his resume). Through the first few weeks of 2025, Allar has put up good numbers, keeping him in the middle of the Heisman odds pack. The big opportunities for him are ahead on the schedule: showdowns with Michigan and Ohio State.

• Smart Bet: If you like Allar, the strategy is to bet before Penn State’s marquee games. His current 20:1 odds could go up (shrink) if he were to knock off a powerhouse like Ohio State while having a big day. If Allar throws 4 TDs in a win over Michigan, he’d be among the top candidates overnight. When you bet beforehand, you are grabbing the value before the odds react. But if PSU loses those games, Allar’s Heisman hopes likely go away. So this is a boom-or-bust wager that’s tied to a couple of key dates. You could take a wait-and-see approach and only bet Allar if Penn State wins one of those big games and he breaks out, but the odds won’t be as generous. Allar is a calculated gamble, and he’s one that could pay off big if Penn State finally breaks through. If you bet him now, think about hedging later against other top contenders, especially if PSU is still in the hunt late in the season.

Next up, we have a trio of talented quarterbacks in the +2200 range, and each has the potential to post eye-popping stats in 2025. Dampier, Moore, and Arnold are all former highly rated recruits who are now running explosive offenses, which makes them prime “stat monster” candidates!

Devon Dampier (Utah)

A junior who transferred from New Mexico, Dampier has taken the reins of Utah’s offense and immediately impressed. In his first start, he completed 21 of 25 passes and totaled 3 TDs, showing his accuracy and running ability. Utah’s move to the Big 12 has put them in a lot of high-scoring games, and Dampier is capitalizing on it. His Week 1 performance was so good that oddsmakers halved his odds from 50/1 to 25/1, so he could be the most slept-on QB in the country.

Dante Moore (Oregon)

Dante Moore is a former five-star who transferred in and has Oregon’s high-octane offense at his fingertips. Early returns are great; through two weeks, he’s tossed multiple touchdowns and energized the Ducks. Playing in the Pac-12 (which has produced recent Heisman QBs), Moore has more than enough chances for huge stat lines. If Oregon contends for the Pac-12 title and Moore lights up defenses, he’ll get a lot of national love.

Jackson Arnold (Auburn)

Previously an Oklahoma backup, Arnold transferred to Auburn and brought new hope to the Plains. Under coach Hugh Freeze’s quarterback-friendly system, Arnold’s strong arm and mobility are doing really well. In his first start for Auburn, he threw for 300+ yards with a couple of scores, and that validated the offseason hype. Auburn might not be a top SEC team yet, but it will build the offense around Arnold’s skills. If he racks up numbers against SEC defenses, he’ll make his way into the conversation.

• Smart Bet: These three players are in similar boats odds-wise, so the best move is to “sprinkle” small units on each rather than a big bet on one. At ~22:1 odds, a modest bet can give you a nice payout. If you invest a little in all three, you’re diversifying your longshot portfolio and increasing the chance that one of them hits it big. All players have a strong upside: Dampier has the dual-threat wow factor, Moore has the brand-name program and stats, and Arnold has the SEC stage and talent. Hitting on even one of them would more than make up for misses on the others. Or you could pick your favorite of the trio if one situation looks better. But from a value perspective? Spreading out your bets among the high-ceiling longshots is a sound approach. The odds are strong, and you don’t need to wager much to possibly win a lot!

Julian Sayin (Ohio State): The former five-star who transferred from Alabama. If he wins the Buckeyes’ job and delivers in primetime games against Notre Dame, Penn State, or Michigan? His odds could be cut in half.

CJ Carr (Notre Dame): A redshirt freshman with the name recognition. If Notre Dame opens hot and Carr looks the part, the media attention will follow.

Thomas Castellanos (Florida State): A transfer from Boston College who has FSU’s roster around him, so an early undefeated run would move him from longshot to contender.

• Smart Bet: Small-unit bets only! Each has a shot to surge if September goes their way, but the variance is huge.

Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame): PFF graded him as one of the top backs in the country last season, and he’s now the Irish feature runner. Running backs hardly ever win, but if ND is a playoff team and Love posts 2,000+ scrimmage yards, he’ll be in the conversation.

Joey Aguilar (QB, Tennessee): The sixth-year senior who transferred through JUCO, App State, and UCLA before landing in Knoxville. Tennessee’s system churns out QB stats; if Aguilar does well and knocks off Georgia or Alabama, his number collapses.

• Smart Bet: Love has the talent to be the rare RB in the race; Aguilar has the system and schedule. Both belong in the “fun flier” category, so don’t overextend on either one of them.

Bryce Underwood (Michigan): The No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class. If Michigan hands him the job and he delivers right away? His price won’t last. Freshman QBs almost never win, but the talent cannot be denied.

Ty Simpson (Alabama): A former five-star who’s waited behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. If he finally starts and Alabama is in contention, the exposure alone gives him a shot.

• Smart Bet: These are all pure hedges. If you’ve already bet a favorite, tossing a small wager here can cover the “what if” scenario of a Michigan freshman or an Alabama starter heating up.