Guide to Value Betting: What It Is and How to Use It

By: Matthew Buchanan | Last Updated: May 2, 2025

Value betting is finding odds in a sports bet that are higher than the potential outcome of the game or competition. The best thing we could compare it to is stock trading where you want to buy low and have the price rise to lock in a profit. It’s the same concept only applied to sports betting. You want your bet to be correct, so you must choose the best odds that predict the eventual outcome of the game, but you also want to get those odds at a price that ensure you make a modest profit. Finding the right odds means that you have to shop around for value. We’ll explain this in more detail as we move further into your review of understanding value betting.

Why is capturing value in sports betting important? Think of it as a business. The fewer expenses and overhead you have the more of the money you get to keep as profit. If you can get odds for the best possible price, you keep more of that money in your account and you still make a profit along the way. Why overpay for odds when you can shop around for value and keep your expenses lower?

Getting odds that offer value make for long-term profitability. With more money in your account to work with, you can increase the size of your betting units and you have the ability to place more bets if you’re looking to grow by bet volume. There are a ton of other benefits to finding odds that offer value, which we’ll discuss in further detail as we dive deeper into value betting.

There’s also a little thing in sports betting called “expected value.” This is where good sports bettors look at the oddsmakers’ lines all throughout the week to find opportunities where they can find a deal, essentially where there are odds are overvaluing or undervaluing competitors or teams. Unlike new bettors who might wait until the day before or the morning of the game to look at the odds for the first time and place their bet, professional and experienced bettors shop around so they can weigh bet options by the expected value (+EV) they could offer.

The Concept of Value Betting

Value betting is when the likelihood of an outcome in a sports game or competition is greater than the odds being offered by the sportsbooks. It means that you’re getting a deal on odds that should cost more because the likelihood of you winning is better than what the odds are.

These places where you find value in the number exist because bookmakers have a lot to keep track of as they research various teams and competitors in the context of the current sports season. Oddsmakers aim to assemble odds that best reflect reality, but they are human just like you or men and they can make mistakes where they overvalue or undervalue a team or player. This could be because they didn’t correctly evaluate all the available data regarding the season record or historical performance or they didn’t account for changes like rescheduling games, player injuries, or inclement weather.

Value Betting vs. Regular Betting

So, while seasoned, experienced bettors look for value all throughout the week on the bets they place, there’s the regular, everyday bettor who may wait until the day before the game or the morning of to check the odds and see how they will go about betting for the upcoming game. Most regular bettors don’t even think to look for value. Some are looking to simply bet on the favorite and win a small, insignificant payout. Some are only interested in betting on their favorite team just because it’s their favorite team and they want to back them.

We don’t like to call it “regular betting” because ideally regular betting should involve bettors looking for value, but the fact of the matter is that most of the betting public doesn’t put in the time to research the games and teams or even shop around for the best line. Professional or even highly experienced bettors realize value betting is a way to effectively manage and grow their bankroll. It’s a way to increase their overall profit too. The more of these instances you can find where the odds are undervaluing or overvaluing a certain outcome, the more money you can make. It’s something that the average bettor isn’t really looking for.

The Role of Odds in Value Betting

Higher odds indicate higher risk with the bet they’re attached to, but it also means that the bettors can get a higher return if their prediction is correct. On the flip side of things, lower odds is a safer bet overall because you’re far more likely to win, but the payout isn’t that great.

Considering what we just talked about with value betting, good sports bettors are looking for a betting opportunity where they place their wagers on the underdog team or player. Ideally, they want to find odds where this team is being under or overvalued. Not only are you getting paid a lot more money when the dog pulls off an upset, but you’re paying a great price if you can find odds that are reflecting a loss when you know that the upset is likely to occur.

It’s thinking like this that separates casual, recreational bettors, who wager on sports for fun or easy wins without putting in much thought or research, from experienced bettors who think about how much money is going out to pay for the odds and then how much they will profit. Thinking about sports betting like a business can help you minimize losses and will allow you to avoid “holding your own” where you aren’t making any gains but not taking any losses either (no growth).

How to Spot Value Bets

Are you uncertain of how to find value bets or know them when you see them on your favorite sports betting site? Have no worries—we’ll teach you all about how to pinpoint value the next time you’re viewing the odds.

There’s a formula that bettors can use with decimal odds to find out if they’re dealing with a value bet: Value = (Expected Value Odds x Odds) -1. If you calculate a bet and the value turns out to be more than 0, you’ve found a value bet.

Let’s say you feel a football team has a 70% chance of winning, but the odds being offered by the sportsbook imply that the team only has around a 30% chance of winning. In decimal odds, 30% is represented at 3.25. So, you would multiple your expected value by the odds being offered and then subtract 1. It would look like this: Value = (0.70 x 3.25) -1. After doing the math, you find out that the value is equal to 1.257. This is over 0 and is therefore a value bet!

Understanding Odds

There are three ways in which bookmakers display odds for their customers: American, decimal, and fractional odds. Each format is popular in certain areas of the world but anyone, regardless of where they are from, can switch from one format to another. These formats present the same information, just in a different way. It has no bearing on the outcome of the game or competition and it doesn’t change the price you can get your odds for.

American Odds

American odds present the favorite to win with a negative number, while the dog is presented with a positive number. These odds are based on a $100 bet but your payout will differ based on which side of the bet is expected to win.

If you bet on a favorite with odds of -130, this means you would have to bet $130 to earn a profit of $100. The total payout would be $230 because you get your original bet back. Betting the favorite is a safe move and the payout isn’t that bad.

If you bet on the underdog with odds of +150, this means you would bet $100 and you would earn a profit of $150 for a total payout of $250 when you get your original wager back. Betting the underdog is riskier because you’re banking on an upset, but you get paid out better than betting the favorite.

Fractional Odds

Fractional odds are popular with bettors in Ireland and the United Kingdom—they are presented as a fraction like 4/1. You could say these are “four to one” odds, meaning that the bettor will win $4 for every $1 they bet if their predictions are correct. If you place a $100 bet with 4-1 odds, you would win $400 in profit and get your original $100 wager back for a total payout of $500.

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are commonly used in European countries outside the United Kingdom and Ireland and Western nations like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The idea of odds formats is that they convey the same information but are just being presented differently.

Standard American odds of -110 (52.4% implied probability) are 1.91 in decimal odds. If you were to bet $10 on odds of 1.91, you would multiply your bet by the odds ($10 x 1.91 = $19.10). $19.10 would be your entire payout because you get your original bet back. Your total profit would be $9.10.

Expected Value Calculation

Expected value (EV) is a way to measure the probability gap between your expectations and the sportsbooks’ expectations. Gauging expected value requires the bettor to know about the market they are betting on, like individual player or team performance or historical data.

If a bettor feels that a team or player has a greater chance of winning than the odds are showing on their favorite sportsbooks, then that team or player has a positive expected value. On the flip side, if the bettor feels that a team or player has a lesser chance of winning than the odds tell them, then that team or player has a negative expected value.

What is the expected value when a bettor takes the time to find discrepancies in the bookmakers’ numbers? They look for opportunities where the sportsbooks are overvaluing or undervaluing specific teams or players. These are chances where bettors can find an edge to get odds for a reasonable price or to find a bet where an upset is about to occur, resulting in a good, hefty payout.

How to Calculate Expected Value

To calculate the expected value, you would multiply each possible outcome by the likelihood of each outcome occurring. Once you’ve figured out each possibility, you would add each to determine if it’s a positive or negative expected value.

Let’s look at an example to understand how this works better. In a football game, you have a 10% chance of winning $200, a 45% chance of winning $0, and a 50% of losing $10. Here is how you would figure out your expected value:

200 x 0.10 + 0 x 0.45 + (-10) x 0.50 = 15

In this case, the bet has an expected value of +$15. If you played this game for an infinite amount of time, you would expect to gain $15 every time you played on average.

Market Analysis

In the next section, we’ll discuss some useful tools for analyzing odds and statistics to make comparisons and choose the best selections for your bet slip. Analyzing markets for discrepancies in the numbers is a significant part of sports betting—you want to keep the size of your bet conservative and around 1-2% of your total bankroll, so finding value in the numbers is where you can increase your profit margin.

Analyzing the multiple odds throughout the week gives you a good idea of the big picture, how the lines shift, and where the money is going on either side of a bet. Once you pinpoint where teams or competitors are being undervalued or overvalued, you can find places to get good deals on the odds and increase your overall profit margin.

Essential Tools for Value Bettors

Suppose you want to get better at online sports betting. In that case, a wide array of great tools and resources can help you better compare odds from different bookmakers and perform statistical analysis to make the best possible bets online. Instead of checking information on several different sportsbooks, you can use these helpful tools to compile a ton of information in one place—this makes it easier to discover which bets are worth adding to your slip and where the best value lies.

Odds Comparison Sites:

Another helpful tool for finding the best deals on the odds is odds comparison sites, where they compare odds from all legal sportsbooks on most events. A few odds comparison sites you should be using include:

OddsChecker US
Odds Portal
Oddspedia

Instead of looking through many different pages on multiple sportsbooks, these odds comparison sites allow you to search by game or competition, and they have a list of all the major sportsbooks and what they’re offering. At the least, you’re saving much of your valuable time viewing multiple odds in one place instead of checking on various books.

Betting Software

You can use betting software online that helps you find good value bets from multiple sportsbooks. A few of the best options include:

The Arb Academy
Sports-Arbitrage.com
RebelBetting
BetWasp
Punter2Pro
Arbusers
Mercurius Betting Intelligence

Instead of scanning the sportsbooks to find and pinpoint discrepancies in the numbers, these betting software resources are a great way to save time and energy while researching which bets you want to add to your bet slip. This can help you place smarter bets where you win more and gain a solid profit in the process.

Statistical Analysis Tools

There are a ton of online tools that can help you with statistical analysis as you place your sports wagers. These sites or apps can maximize your return on investment (smarter betting, not just winning) and identify value in your sports betting picks (balancing risk and reward). The following sites can help you analyze all available information to make the best sports bets possible:

Because online sports betting isn’t all about winning your bets, it’s vital to look for value so you can make the best profit possible. Think of sports betting like online stock trading. You want to buy low and sell high. The main reason to look for value is to get the odds for a low price, keep your bet size conservative, and increase your overall profit margin without putting too much money on the line.

Effective Value Betting Strategies

Check out these value betting strategies that have worked for many punters throughout history. We have to highlight percentage betting right up front because this is the best overall approach to online betting. You’re keeping your betting units small, but you’re appropriately scaling it to match the size of your bankroll.

However, we don’t want to tell you what to do—you have to choose a betting strategy that works best for your personal style, lifestyle, and preferred technique. A lot of success you find in employing these strategies is based on how sizable your bankroll is.

Bankroll Management

One of the greatest weapons you wield to help your value betting strategy is having a good grip on your gambling funds. This means that you’re managing your bankroll responsibly. Just like any good business, you want plenty of money come in and the least amount of money going out toward expenses. You view paying for odds as your expenses.

Staking Plans

Developing a staking strategy is important for effective value betting. Not only do you want to research your selections and look at external factors that may or may not affect the final outcome, but you also want an excellent staking strategy to grow your bankroll and keep losses at a minimum. We’ll highlight the most conservative and aggressive styles for placing your sports bets so you can begin developing your style today!

Flat Betting

This might be the most conservative approach in online sports betting. Here, punters use the same betting unit across all bets—the amount doesn’t change based on increases or decreases in the bettor’s bankroll. If you select $1 as your betting unit, you bet $1 on all sports bets regardless of your balance. It could be $5 or $5,000, and your betting unit is $1. While this can really help you to minimize losses, not scaling the bet size up with increases in your bankroll balance can keep you back from growing.

Percentage Betting

In flat betting, you choose an amount and apply it to all your sports bets, but it doesn’t consider the size of your bankroll. Percentage betting is different because your betting unit isn’t completely random. Your betting unit is a percentage of your bankroll balance. We personally recommend going with a rate of 1-2% of your total bankroll, but you can use any percentage you want. The size of your bet goes up and down with gains or losses. It’s the best way to scale your bets when betting on sports online.

Kelly Criterion

This staking style is more popular with aggressive bettors who have a lot of resources in their gambling bankroll. Using Kelly Criterion, following careful research of the odds and prices, bettors can up their wagers if they sense there’s a lot of value. The two components of the Kelly Criterion are the win probability/odds that any given trade will return a positive amount and the win/loss ratio. You take the winning probability and divide it by the win/loss ratio to determine your potential returns—you can then scale your betting units up or down based on this expected value.

Confidence Level Betting

This betting style is the closest thing to following what you get is telling you. Confidence betting comes with experience, so you see this strategy employed by bettors with a deep knowledge of a particular market, team, or individual players. These bettors can tell you immediately about new updates like roster changes, injuries, weather, recent past performances, and historical data. Confidence-level bettors can typically deliver correct predictions, and they adjust the size of the bet accordingly based on the nuances of each matchup and the potential outcome.

Bet Tracking

A good tool for tracking your bets is the Bet Analytix app, available at Google Play or the App Store. Once you’ve downloaded the app to your device, you can find strengths or weaknesses in your overall approach and strategy. Find out if you need to adjust your betting unit or if you need to decrease the amount of bets you place in a single session. Over time, this can help you make better betting decisions and help you end up on the winning side of the curve more often than not.

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Use the following perks once you’ve downloaded the Bet Analytix app and begin using it for analyzing your bets:

Track your bets (single, combined, systems, back, lay)
View more than 50 statistics
Share your bankrolls
Share your bets
Follow tipsters
Receive notifications
Use tools dedicated to betting
Manage risings
Manage your tipsters and bookmakers
Manage your betting categories, competitions, and betting types
View current activity

Real-Life Examples of Value Betting

Let’s look at some examples of successful value bets to show you how to approach sports betting and find valuable odds that translate into money slowly over time. Remember to look at positive expected value based on sound research on the team or competitors you’re betting on. You can’t find valuable sports bets going by the seat of your pants. You must do your homework, keep a close eye on the odds the bookmakers are putting out, and have a decent idea of the big picture (past performance, historical data, external factors, etc.).

Let’s look at an example of a football game where the odds indicate a particular team has a 40% chance of winning. However, you know this team well and have been keeping up on their seasons, and you know their recent performances like the back of your hand. There’s actually a 60% chance of that team winning their next game.

The equation for finding value is taking your perceived likelihood of a particular outcome multiplied by the odds. 40% chance of winning translates into 150 in American odds, 2.50 in decimal odds, and 1.5/1 in fractional odds. Using decimal odds, you multiply 2.50 x 0.60 because you feel there’s a 60% chance of the team winning despite the odds posted. You get 1.50 and then subtract by 1 to get an expected value of 0.5. This bet has a positive expected value because this is a positive number (above 0). This is a value bet!

Successful Value Bets

Value bets need a positive expected value (EV) for knowledgeable bettors to see these selections worth their time and money. Determining expected value involves knowing the equation for getting the +EV number and being familiar with the team, player, or market you’re betting on.

Lessons Learned

A few mistakes to avoid when value betting are making your selections based on hunches, betting your favorite teams, or being solely focused on winning your bets versus making the best possible profit. The best bettors will always tell you to be as familiar as possible with the markets, players, or teams you’re betting on. It’s all about researching, checking the odds daily for missteps in the bookmakers’ numbers, and staying the course with your betting unit size.

Understanding the Risks

Outside of losing bets, sports betting doesn’t always go smoothly due to other risks you might experience using online sportsbooks. We are talking about factors outside of your control, like public or sharp money moving the lines, outside factors like weather or player injuries influencing the odds, or variance in how often straight bets are considered wins. We’ll highlight the primary risks to remember, even after placing great, quality bets on your betting slip.

Market Movement

Lines can move, and odds can change based on developments or news, such as weather on the game or event day, a change-up in the team’s roster, coaching changes, or player injuries/suspensions. When such incidents occur, change your betting approach, like placing a bet on the opposite side to offset a potential loss.

But there’s also line movement from the money placed on the game. A gradual change in line movement typically indicates money from the public coming in—you can see where public sentiment lies as a result. If there is sudden line movement, this usually means the sharp bettors are out.

Bookmaker Limitations

If bookmakers find that you’re consistently getting a good closing line value (CLV), they might restrict how much you can bet using their sportsbooks. Some gamblers get banned outright if they continually rake in win after win. Getting a good closing line value means that you beat the sportsbook and got a better price than what the bet closed at. If too many players beat the book when it comes to capturing value, the books will act quickly to throttle these bettors’ success.

You don’t want the fear of being limited or getting banned from the sportsbook to dictate how you place your bets. Do your research, look for value throughout the week, and know when to correct your betting decisions—don’t be afraid to do what’s best for you as you get more knowledgeable about sports betting and getting good closing line value. But remember that this is a potential obstacle you might deal with at some point; the better you get!

Variance and Losing Streaks

To explain the variance, we need to talk about a simple coin toss. If you’re tossing a coin and calling out heads or tails, you technically have a 50/50 shot at being correct because there are two possible outcomes. The same is technically accurate for straight bets like money lines (betting on the winner), point spreads (betting on the margin of victory), or over/under totals (betting on the final combined score). You have a 50/50 chance of being right because these three bets have only two outcomes.

However, think about flipping a coin and the variance you might experience with the results of each flip. It’s not as if the coin alternates between heads and tails evenly with each flip. You could flip the coin five times and come up with tails all five times. The fewer tosses, the further away you get from the 50% likelihood. However, if you flip the coin 500 times, you’ll approach the even 50/50 breakdown between heads and tails.

With this idea of variance, the same thing could be applied to your sports betting experience. Though you have a 50/50 chance of winning your bet, you could still run into a losing streak. Don’t chase losses; stick with your betting units, and take a break from your session when you run into back-to-back losses. Don’t fall into the trap of trying to recoup your money by upping your subsequent few bets. You could dig yourself into a deeper hole.

Value Betting FAQ

See what our readers and customers have been asking about value betting—the following FAQ section features the most popular question on value betting. We recommend checking these out if you want to get the main highlights of our review. Save yourself a little time!

What is Value Betting?

Value betting occurs when you find odds higher than the game’s or competition’s potential outcome. This is a popular strategy by seasoned and newer bettors to get the best possible price on the odds you apply to your bet slip. What most value bettors do to capture the best prices is to look at the odds posted by the sportsbook all week long to find places where the bookmakers are over or undervaluing a team or competitor. It’s a way to maximize your profit margin if your bet is considered a win when the game is done. Over time, value betting helps you to choose quality bets and make slow gains for your online bankroll.

What is the Difference Between Odds Formats?

Odds formats are different ways to read the likelihood of potential outcomes, but they display the same information. For instance, standard American odds are -110, meaning bettors can win $100 for a bet of $110. The implied probability of the bet being posted as a win is 52.4%. -110 in American odds is 1.91 in decimal odds and 0.91/1 in fractional odds. The American odds are popular with people in the United States; most of Europe, Canada, and Australia prefer decimal odds. Fractional odds are favored in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Why Should I Track My Bets?

Tracking your bets can help you better understand your strengths and weaknesses in betting. Keeping track of your betting patterns can help you know when it’s time to increase or decrease how often you bet or how big your bet size is. Though you can hone your betting strategy by tracking your bets, a significant time commitment goes into recording and analyzing the information to pinpoint the areas of improvement.

How Do I Incorporate Statistics into My Betting Strategy?

Some of the best ways to inform your betting choices are to look at historical data on the teams and individual players you’re betting on. View data on the season thus far to see how your selections have been performing recently. Sensing when a team is gaining momentum or losing steam can help inform your bet.

What is Bankroll Management?

Bankroll management is where you manage your gambling funds responsibly. You must set aside a gambling budget separate from your personal money. It’s important to set up a betting unit, a set amount that you use on all bets, to help minimize potential losses. Bankroll management includes best practices such as taking frequent breaks from gambling and avoiding sports betting when angry or intoxicated.

Why Should I Set a Betting Unit?

Setting up a betting unit (we recommend 1-2% of your total bankroll on all bets) ensures you can make steady progress when you win or keep your losses to a minimum when your bets don’t come through. You should keep your betting unit consistent across all bets, and the size will only change as your bankroll grows or contracts.

How Do I Find Out My Betting Style?

A lot of your betting style hinges on how big your bankroll is—the more money you have to work with, the more you can employ advanced betting styles like Kelly Criterion, where you up your bets when you’ve done thorough research and sense a lot of value on bets that are sure to come through as a win. Bettors with the right resources can also use loss recovery strategies like the Fibonacci or Martingale techniques.

What Are the Biggest Mistakes to Avoid?

The biggest mistakes to avoid in value sports betting are betting too often, going beyond your set gambling budget, chasing your losses, ignoring odds, betting on the favorite to win or your favorite team without any research, or betting on sports when you’re angry, frustrated, or drunk. You could make many other mistakes when sports betting online, but these are the big ones to look out for!

How Does Market Movement Affect Value Bets?

Odds will move based on new information, market confidence, and money. When we say new information, we’re referring to changes in the roster, player injuries/suspensions, or conditions like the weather that could affect the final outcome. Odds will shift based on public or media sentiment, though it’s not a direct indicator that the favored side will win. Money plays a significant factor, too, with bookies trying to balance the betting action on either side by offering better odds on the underrepresented side. Sharp bettors can influence odds movement based on which side they choose.

How Do I Deal With a Losing Streak?

Above everything else, you shouldn’t be chasing losses unless you have unlimited resources where you could pull off a loss recovery strategy. Upping your bets to recover lost money can dig you deeper into the hole you already find yourself in, so we recommend taking a break. Remember to keep your betting units consistent for all your bets. That’s the best way to build your bankroll and minimize potential losses.

What Information Should I Record When Tracking My Bets?

Track the following information on all bets you place online:

– Date of the bet
– The matchup
– The type of bet placed
– Odds
– Spreads or totals
– The amount of your bet
– Your profit
– Final result

Start Finding Value Bets Today

If you want to increase the quality of the sports bets you place online, consider using our value betting techniques to find reasonable prices on the odds you apply to your slip, increase the likelihood of your bets being correct, and use line movement to your advantage. Keep these principles in mind as you move on to employing your personal betting strategy:

Do good research on your bets—look at recent performance, historical data, and outside factors like weather, injuries, or roster changes to inform your decisions.
Keep track of odds posted by the sportsbooks throughout the week to find places where teams/players are under/overvalued and to get the best price.
Track all your bets to find out where there are strengths and weaknesses in your overall strategy.
Manage your bankroll responsibly—set up a gambling budget and establish a betting unit on all online wagers.
Use online tools and software to track your bets, compare odds between various sportsbooks, and apply statistical analysis to betting selections.
Be aware of the risks involved in betting aside from getting your prediction wrong—bookmakers limiting your activity based on good closing line value, variance and losing streaks that come with all bets, and line movement based on external factors and sharp/public money.
Use the expected value equation based on your research on your team or individual player to determine if specific bets are worth your time or money.

Take Your Betting to the Next Level

Despite all the information and concepts we’ve covered on value betting, other techniques and strategies for online sports betting could suit your approach well! Check out our additional betting strategy pages highlighting matched or arbitrage betting techniques. If you’re interested in getting to know sports betting inside and out, we encourage you to check out these pages to learn more and hone your betting skills!