Washington Wizards vs. Sacramento Kings Prediction (January 16th, 2026)
The Washington Wizards and Sacramento Kings don’t seem to care much about winning these days, but a healthy 231.5 total at DraftKings suggests the two sides can still produce a fun game environment.
Whether they like it or not, the Kings will enter Friday night’s game as 6.5-point favorites, too, as both teams continue to battle with the idea of tanking versus trying to win.
Washington may have a desire to try to turn things around at some point, as a big recent trade for star point guard Trae Young suggests an attempt at something other than cellar-dwelling. Young won’t be on hand to make his Wizards debut, however, so a shorthanded Washington crew could have a tough time taking down the Kings on the road.
It’s an interesting game to bet on, as neither side is particularly reliable, but there is a clear lack of defense and a focus on pace in this matchup. That points to one clear bet, but there are some others to consider. I’ll break this one down to get to a Wizards vs. Kings prediction, and also hand out my top picks for tonight.
Game Details
- Matchup: Washington Wizards (10-29) vs. Sacramento Kings (11-30)
- Date & Time: Friday, January 16th, at 9:00 pm (10:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA
- How to Watch: Monumental Sports Network, NBA League Pass and NBC Sports California
Early Season Performance & Trends
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have been stuck in rebuilding mode for years now. They have landed some nice prospects via the draft, but bungled Deni Avdija. They’re trying to make up for that by acquiring superstar guard Trae Young for peanuts, so we’ll see how that plays out.
As for their current state, they are just 10-29 on the year and are atrocious defensively. The Wizards come into this game riding a four-game skid with a 4-6 mark over their last 10 games, and they are an abysmal 4-16 on the road.
Washington has some nice young players to build with, but this team got the year off to a brutal 1-15 start, and there’s no real hope on the horizon beyond offering a fast and sometimes fun offense.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are probably worse off than the Wizards. They are slightly better in terms of record at 11-30, and they at least have some excuse since star center Domantas Sabonis has missed most of the year due to injuries.
Sacramento was extremely poorly constructed, of course, as the team thought it’d be a good idea to have ball stoppers like Russell Westbrook, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan on the same team. To make matters worse, only one of those three guys can space the floor, and they’re all isolation scorers who need the ball in their hands to make a big impact.
That’s still allowed the Kings to have their moments, but this is not a very cohesive unit, and it’s one that will undoubtedly be blown up before long. Sacramento will try to hold serve (I think?) at home, where they are at their best (8-13). They shockingly have won each of their last three games, which followed a not-at-all-surprising seven-game skid.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Wizards and Kings don’t play in the same conference, but they’ve still battled an insane 210 times during the regular season. Sacramento has the leg up in the all-time series (113-97), while the two sides have split the season series in each of the last three years.
Washington won the most recent meeting last April, edging out the Kings in a fun 116-111 shootout. The two teams combined for 274 points in another crazy battle in 2023-24.
This has been a fast and high-scoring series, as each of the last 20 meetings has seen both sides top at least 100 points.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Wizards are about to get a serious facelift on offense, as Trae Young brings a ton of scoring, outside shooting, and playmaking to the table. He’s not here yet in an official capacity, though, so the Wiz will lean on center Alexandre Sarr (16.8 points per game) for steady production.
Sarr has been rock solid for the Wizards, as he also contributes 7.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. Washington has largely kept him at around 30 minutes, so it’s quite arguable that his overall impact is even bigger from a statistical standpoint. To get a clearer picture of how productive he’s been, his Per 36 stats have him at 21.9 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game.
C.J. McCollum got traded in that Trae Young deal and leaves behind 18.8 points per game. Kyshawn George, Bub Carrington, and Tre Johnson are tasked with trying to fill the void until Young can take over. They can do it in spurts, but they are all very inconsistent.
Naturally, this is not a very reliable offense. They rank 18th in assists per game, 25th in scoring, and 23rd in points in the paint. However, they can execute in transition (12th) and offer a capable perimeter offense (17th) that can run hot and cold.
Sacramento has a slew of veteran presences within their offense, and they still rank 29th in points per game (110.2). They have missed the impact of Sabonis, who is one of the best passing big men in the league and leaves quite the gap when his 17 points and 12 rebounds per game are out of the lineup.
The Kings did a terrible job of keeping him involved as the key piece, though, as they took the ball out of his hands and let Westbrook run their system. Westbrook is well past his prime, but to his credit, he is still a nightly triple-double threat with a 14.8-6.4-6.9 stat line on the year.
LaVine (19.9 ppg) and DeRozan (19.2) can still be effective as scorers, but they don’t provide enough consistent spacing, and their stats are largely empty on a losing team. Sacramento sees a lot in young guys like Keegan Murray (14.5 ppg), Maxime Reynaud (10.4 ppg), and Nique Clifford, but so far their talent hasn’t translated into much winning.
Due to their current framework, the Kings rank 25th in assists per game and are the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA. The Kings are slightly below average on the break and at scoring inside, but they lack efficiency and perimeter threats to keep the defense honest.
Washington plays pretty fast, as they come in ranked 10th in pace. Sacramento isn’t slow, but they’re around league average, ranking 14th in pace of play.
Neither team is anything close to good on defense. The Wizards give up 123.9 points per game and are second-to-last in defensive efficiency. They are a total sieve inside (25th in points in the paint) and also don’t defend the perimeter well.
Sacramento isn’t much better. The Kings rank 27th in defensive efficiency, are just 26th in scoring, and are even worse at protecting the paint. They are actually solid at defending the long ball and limiting free throw opportunities, however.
- Wizards perimeter offense vs. Kings perimeter defense: Washington puts up 35 threes per game and shoots decently (17th). They may have a tough time finding success on the outside against a shockingly good three-point defense, though.
- Alexandre Sarr vs. the Kings’ interior defense: Sabonis could be back for this one, but he doesn’t change a bad interior Kings defense. Sarr should be able to feast in this spot and help open things up for Washington on the outside.
- Kings’ penetration vs. Wizards’ interior defense: Alternatively, the Kings can attack Washington in the paint at will. Westbrook and DeRozan thrive in the mid-range and can also attack the basket. This could also be a nice return for Sabonis if he’s active for this one.
Washington will be on the road and has not been a consistent performer away from home. They also have not been great against the spread. The Wizards are just 15-24 against the spread overall, while they are 7-13 ATS on the road and 14-22 ATS as the underdog.
Sacramento is usually at their best on their home floor. They are also quite bad (16-25) against the spread, but they’re better (9-12) ATS at home. The Kings are just 1-2 ATS as the favorite and 4-5 ATS against Eastern Conference teams, however.
These teams are both terrible defensively. Washington also pushes the pace, and those two things have led the Over to going 19-20 in their games. The Over is 2-1 when the Kings are favored as well.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Wizards vs. Kings betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Wizards | +7 (-112) | +215 | Over 233.5 (-110) |
Kings | -7 (-108) | -260 | Under 233.5 (-110) |
Washington comes in a sizable road underdog. They have just 10 wins on the year, are terrible on the road, and have been weak against the spread overall.
The moneyline is also fitting, as the Kings have most of their victories on their home floor and could be getting their best player back tonight.
The game total is quite healthy. Given Washington’s pace of play and both defenses struggling on the year, it’s an over/under bettors should be comfortable with.
From a Bettor’s Lens
There is a really nice value on the Washington side. They are bad on the road and the Kings offer more star power, but the spread is big enough to consider. Given how both teams are allergic to winning, going the extra mile with the Wiz at +205 is definitely in play.
The easiest bet to get to is the Over. This total could easily be priced higher based on pace and defensive aptitude.
Situational Considerations
Sabonis is expected back, which would give the Kings a boost. He will likely be limited, and as of this writing, he’s not a given to play, but he’d improve Sacramento’s chances of winning.
Both of these teams are well rested, as they both last played on January 14th. Fatigue won’t play a big role in the outcome of this game.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 233.5 (-110) | Washington runs at a top 10 pace, and the Kings aren’t far behind, while both defenses stink. We should get a shootout in this one. | 8/10 |
Wizards ATS +7 (-112) | Sacramento has won just 11 games all year, and they are terrible against the spread. This is a thick enough line to get me to pounce on the Wizard,s and I think they’re a fine ML try as well. | 7/10 |
Wizards vs. Kings odds keep shifting as bettors react to pace, totals, and spread movement — track every line change, compare prices across books, and lock in the best value at our trusted sportsbooks.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Sacramento Kings 118, Washington Wizards 115
If you’re looking for a Kings vs. Wizards prediction, it’s that the Kings most likely win, but that this game should be fast-paced and high-scoring. Both teams can push the pace; neither defense is good, and the game total isn’t even that outlandish. I love the Over in this one.
Another great Wizards vs. Kings pick is Washington to beat the spread. Even on the road and with Sabonis potentially returning to the floor, there simply is not a big gap between these two teams. Do the Kings even want to win? Can they win even if they want to? Unknown, but they’re bad at covering in these spots, and Washington has nothing to lose.
I think Washington gives them a fight in a relatively explosive game that goes down to the wire. I’d be looking to target Alexandre Sarr’s props (mostly Overs on points and rebounds) due to Sacramento’s weak interior defense as well.
