Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction – Australian Open (Wednesday, January 21st, 2026)
The 2026 Australian Open rages on with some tense matchups on Wednesday night. One of those has Tomas Machac and Stefanos Tsitsipas facing off. Machac enters this second-round showdown as a -186 favorite at DraftKings, but there could be reason to brace for an upset.
You don’t need to automatically target Stefanos Tsitsipas to obtain value in this matchup, of course. Machac is favored for a reason, after all, while there are other Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas bets that should catch your eye.
Not sure how to bet on this Australian Open tilt? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll inspect the latest odds and nudge you to the top picks, while capping things off with a Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas prediction.
Match Details
- Matchup: Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Date & Time: Wednesday, January 21, at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
- Tournament: Australian Open
- Round: Second round
- Surface: Hard court (specifically GreenSet, a cushioned acrylic)
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas odds over at DraftKings:
- Tomas Machac: -186
- Stefanos Tsitsipas: +146
- Machac Games Won: Over 20.5 (-135) | Under 20.5 (-105)
- Tsitsipas Games Won: Over 19.5 (-120) | Under 19.5 (-115)
What the Odds Tell Us
The Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas odds indicate Machac is the clear favorite to win. He is also listed as a -135 betting favorite to win 21 games in this matchup. While he is priced as the likely winner, these are pretty tight lines, meaning the oddsmakers respect Tsitsipas and his ability to stage the upset.
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Tomas Machac
The 25-year-old Machac is the 3rd-ranked player from Czechia and got as high as 20th in the world last March. He did a solid job at the Australian Open last year, reaching the semifinals in the best run at this tourney in his career.
Machac is still seeking his first career grand slam title, but he has three tournament wins under his belt, as he won the 2025 Mexican Open and most recently claimed the 2026 Adelaide International.
Machac is at his best when aggressive off his serve, but he is also adept at utilizing his backhand swing. He is also good at returning serves, while he has the athleticism to dominate rallies. A compact swing also allows him to maintain an edge in rallies and serve returns.
He’s coming into this match in good form, as he is 5-1 to start off 2026.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas is the older tennis player with more experience, while he holds a win in the only showdown between these two. Stefanos doesn’t have any hardware yet in 2026, but he’s gone 3-1 so far this season and has had more high-level success.
Tsitsipas actually got to the 2023 Australian Open final, so we know he has what it takes to run the table in this tournament. That wasn’t just a lucky stretch, either, as he did the same at the 2021 French Open. Of course, those are the only two times he came close to a grand slam title, and it’s fair to wonder if the 27-year-old can finish the job in the near future.
Stefanos is coming off a solid 2025 showing, as he won the Dubai Tennis Championships men’s singles title. He has had some serious laundry aired out with his past coaches, as his effort, work ethic, and physical shape have all been called into question.
Fundamentally, Tsitsipas is an aggressive baseliner who can make plays from all over the court. He relies on an elite forehand, as well as his one-handed backhand, and he is tough to beat when his serve is firing on all cylinders.
Head-to-Head Record
| Tomas Machac | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 0 | 1 |
Losses | 1 | 0 |
Total Wins | 77 | 370 |
Grand Slams | 0 | 0 |
These are two talented tennis players, but they’ve yet to crack the top tier of male tennis. Neither has a grand slam title despite a couple of deep runs, while Stefanos has the leg up in the series and offers far more experience.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Want to know what sways the Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas odds? Let’s take a closer look at some of the main factors for this 2026 Australian Open tilt:
- Machac’s backhand pressure vs. Tsitsipas’ one-handed backhand: Machac’s compact swing and controlled backhand give him a serious weapon, while Stefanos has a deadly weapon in his one-handed backhand. The two-hand approach can be less explosive but more controlled. If Tsitsipas avoids unforced errors, however, his ability to generate more power could give him the edge.
- Tsitsipas’ serve vs. Machac’s return: Stefanos has a fantastic serve and is tough to stop when he is dealing. This part of the matchup will come down to placement from Stefanos and Machac’s ability to keep the serve in front of him and shorten the court.
- Rally Szn: Machac probably has the edge in rallies, as he can dictate pace and send the ball deep. The longer he can stretch our rallies, the more he benefits. This could pull more errors out of Tsitsipas or simply has him over time.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas picks at the 2026 Australian Open:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Tomas Machac ML (-186) | Machac is in a better groove at the moment. He’ll be eager to even up this series and make a deeper run in the Australian Open, too. This is a pretty even match, but I give the edge to his more controlled backhand and ability to clean up in rallies. | 7/10 |
Machac Over 20.5 Games Won (-135) | If Machac pulls this out like I think he can, he’s a really good bet to get to 21 games. He will need Tsitsipas to put up a bit of a fight to get there, but I think that’s a fair expectation. | 7/10 |
Set Betting: Machac 3:1 (+290) | This one is always a guess, but I think Tsitsipas is good enough to steal a set and keep this interesting. The consistency and athleticism should side with Machac, though, so pulling away for a 3-1 win is a solid bet. | 5/10 |
Planning to bet on Machac vs. Tsitsipas? Explore our recommended sports betting sites to monitor evolving odds, compare set and total game lines, and capture value ahead of the first serve.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong in tennis betting. Here’s how my Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas bets could miss the mark:
- Maintained Edge: Stefanos Tsitsipas won the first and only match between these two. He could always win to go up 2-0, and that’d kill all of my picks for this showdown.
- Quick Match: This match could go toward Machac so much that it’s absurdly dominant. If he sweeps Stefanos Tsitsipas, then he may not top 20.5 wins or get the correct set wager.
- No Fight: Stefanos Tsitsipas has some question marks. He’s in play to stage the upset, or he could foil my bets by simply not showing up. If he fails to win a single set, then my Machac 3:1 wager goes up in flames.
The Bottom Line: Machac Evens Series with Tsitsipas, Advances to 3rd Round
This is a pretty tough match to call. Both of these guys are talented tennis players in their prime, and they’ve tasted a little success at the Australian Open before. Stefanos Tsitsipas did win the only previous matchup, but based on recent form and the way they play, my Tomas Machac vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas prediction is that we get this series tied up.
Whether or not that leads to Machac getting to 21 wins in this matchup or wins 3-1 is anyone’s guess, but those are secondary bets that align with my first pick.
Ultimately, Machac is a bit more controlled and is more sustainable based on how he plays. He’s already tasted high-level success this year, too, so I think he can keep the positive momentum going and continue his run at the 2026 Australian Open.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Tomas Machac -186| Confidence: 7/10
- Games Won – Machac Over 20.5 (-135) | Confidence 7/10
- Set Betting – Machac 3:1 +290 | Confidence: 5/10
