Tennessee Volunteers vs. Missouri Tigers CBB Prediction (February 24th, 2026)
College basketball fans get an overlooked matchup on Tuesday night, where SEC rivals in the Tennessee Volunteers and Missouri Tigers will wage war.
FanDuel has the 22nd ranked Vols entering Mizzou Arena as 4.5-point favorites, but should Rick Barnes’ crew be favored by almost five? Will they even pull off the road upset? The Vols come in riding a four-game winning streak, but a weak 4-4 road record creates enough space for a conversation revolving around a Missouri upset.
The Tigers only have two more losses than the Volunteers and have gone a blistering 14-2 on their home floor. They are in fine form (4-1) over their last five games, however, and they’ll undoubtedly be eager to take their rivals down a peg or two.
So, which way should you bet? I’ll go over the latest odds and key matchup angles to find the best bets en route to a Tennessee vs. Missouri prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Tennessee Volunteers (20-7) vs. Missouri Tigers (18-9)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, February 24th, at 8:00 pm (9:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Mizzou Arena in Columbia, MO
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on SEC Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
Tennessee Volunteers
Rick Barnes has the Vols on the cusp of a Top-20 ranking. Tennessee has enjoyed a solid season at 20-7, while a hot run could keep them in play to claim the SEC regular-season conference title.
If the Vols play their cards right, they could make a run at the conference title. Florida (12-2) is in the driver’s seat at the moment, but Tennessee could have a chance if they win out.
Tennessee has looked to be up to the challenge of late, as they are fresh off a huge 69-65 win over Vanderbilt and are now 8-1 over their last nine games. Their lone loss during that stretch? A tight 74-71 battle with Kentucky.
That was the only time in their last seven games where Tennessee allowed their opponent to top 70 points. With a nasty defense and elite coaching, the Vols march into Missouri on a mission.
Missouri Tigers
The Tigers are trying to make progress off of last year, when they nabbed their second 20+ win season under head coach Dennis Gates’ direction. They’re in position to do just that, even though they’ve stumbled a bit (1-2) over their last three games.
Missouri made us all think they were going to be a real problem early in the year, as they got off to an absurd 8-0 start. That was before they started SEC play, however, and now looking back on it, it was clear they benefited immensely from a soft schedule.
Since that crazy start, Missouri is now just 10-9. They gave Arkansas a fight in a wild 94-86 loss three days ago, but Texas stomped them on February 14th, and they got smoked by Illinois in December.
Missouri has offensive upside, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. That may not be ideal against the Volunteers – even on their home floor.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
Missouri and Tennessee have faced each other 23 times in school history. Tennessee holds a 13-10 all-time edge in the series, with Missouri going 5-6 at home and 4-6 on the road.
Tennessee won a fire fight in a crazy 85-81 shootout last February, while the Vols have won two straight in the series and three of the last five.
These recent meetings have all been reasonably competitive, with each game being decided by no more than eight points and two games seeing both teams score 80+ points.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Vols are very solid offensively, pouring in 80.9 points per game (54th) and taking care of business at the free-throw line.
Tennessee really doesn’t leave a lasting mark from long range, but they rank 56th in total shooting and rebound the heck out of the ball.
The Volunteers also spread the ball around and play unselfish basketball. That helps them rank 24th in assists per game, while their scoring is actually top-heavy with Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18 ppg) and Nate Ament (17.9 ppg) doing most of the heavy-lifting.
The Tigers are about as good offensively, as they rank 67th in the nation with 80.3 points per game. They don’t share or work the ball nearly as well as the Vols, but they have an elite 55.8% Effective FG rate (32nd), and they rank 20th in overall shooting.
Much like Tennessee, the Vols can do serious damage inside and are not overly reliant on the outside shot. They shoot the ball slightly better than the Vols from deep, but take just 20.9 threes per game (256th).
Missouri does a solid job at getting to the charity stripe with the 29th most free throw attempts per game, but they’re quite bad (315th) at converting them.
The Tigers are led by Mark Mitchell (17.2 ppg), while Jayden Stone (14.8 ppg) and Trent Pierce (11ppg) contribute to an offensive attack that is a bit more balanced than Tennessee’s.
Defensively, the Vols are a handful. They only allow 69 points per game (48th), making teams really work for clean looks and dominating the glass.
Tennessee is very efficient on the defensive end, while they hold opponents to a 40.5% shooting percentage (23rd). They give up a ton of volume from long range, but close out at an elite level, allowing just a 30.4% three-point rate (26th).
Missouri is not very strong defensively, as the Tigers rank just 194th in scoring. They are not as imposing on the glass, and they have major issues with defending the three. They also let the opposition get to the free-throw line at will.
In terms of pace, these teams aren’t the fastest. Missouri ranks 179th in pace, while the Vols are a little slower (191st).
- Volunteers perimeter offense vs. Tigers perimeter defense: Missouri gives up a ton of outside shots and doesn’t defend the arc very well. The Vols only shoot 34.9% from deep as a unit, but they could see their deep ball falling more than usual in this matchup.
- Tigers interior offense vs. Volunteers interior defense: Missouri’s inside defense is pretty solid, while Tennessee isn’t necessarily elite inside. This is a matchup that probably still favors the Vols, but Missouri could tilt it their way.
- Free Throw Battle & Rebounding: Both teams give too many free passes to the charity stripe, and neither shoot the ball well there at all. The team who converts better could have a huge edge, while the Vols enter this matchup with a clear advantage on the glass.
The Vols have not been great (12-14-1) against the spread this year. They’re just 4-4 straight up on the road, and they’re not any better (3-4-1) ATS in that regard.
Tennessee has gone 9-5-1 ATS with equal rest as their opponent, they’re 7-6-1 ATS inside the SEC, and they are 9-12-1 ATS when favored.
Missouri isn’t any better (12-15) against the spread this season. They’re 6-4 ATS as the underdog, but despite a 14-2 home record, they’re just 7-9 ATS at home this year.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Tennessee vs. Missouri betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee | -4.5 (-102) | -205 | Over 145.5 (-110) |
Missouri | +4.5 (-120) | +168 | Under 145.5 (-110) |
There is no moneyline for this game at the moment, but the spread is understandable. Missouri has been tough to beat at home, but the Vols have been the better team and have edged out Missouri the last two times they faced them.
The game total sounds about right. Both of these teams can score the ball, and Missouri has had issues defensively lately.
From a Bettor’s Lens
I’d rather bet on the ML for this game, but the spread is in that sweet spot where you can feel relatively good about it, regardless of which side you want. My initial lean is to ride with the Vols to cover, as they are the better team with more to lose.
The smash bet right now is the Over. Missouri can put up points, but their defense can really struggle. They get a bump at home, but this over/under isn’t even egregious.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 145.5 (-110) | Missouri doesn’t defend well, and they are bad at stopping the three-ball. Both teams also give up a lot of easy trips to the free-throw line. Look for a lot of points in a game that historically has been close and fairly high-scoring. | 8/10 |
Tennessee ATS -4.5 (-102) | The Vols have a huge rebounding edge in this game and should be able to exploit Missouris’ weak perimeter defense. They also have the superior defense, giving them the all-around edge despite being on the road. | 7/10 |
As betting lines tighten for Tennessee vs Missouri, bettors are watching free-throw rates and perimeter defense trends. Compare line movement at our trusted sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers 84, Missouri Tigers 77
My main Tennessee vs. Missouri prediction is that we get enough points to get to the Over comfortably. The recent showdowns in this series have been pretty high-scoring, while Missouri leaves a lot to be desired on defense.
Tennessee and Missouri both score 80 points per game, too, so when you look at this matchup, the 145.5 total feels pretty light. The Vols do play strong defense and have a clear rebounding advantage. I think those aspects negate the home-court edge Missouri will be holding headed into this tilt.
Missouri should be able to keep it close due to this game in their own backyard, but I still like Tennessee to cover. They have superior star power, arguably better coaching, and are stronger in the key fundamentals.
In rebounding, shooting, ball sharing, and defense, they have the clear edge. If the moneyline odds pop up, Tennessee’s ML would be the play. Until/unless that happens, I’d hammer the Over and the Vols to cover their 4.5-point spread.
