Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez Prediction (February 21st, 2026)
After a week off, the UFC is back in action on Saturday, February 21st. UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez gives us a pretty fun fight card, with Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez being the driving force as the main card.
DraftKings has Strickland listed as a +225 underdog, which makes sense considering he is two years older than Hernandez and has slipped as of late. Of course, it’s fair to wonder how much he should be downgraded for two Decision losses to Dricus Du Plessis.
Hernandez is the more versatile fighter of the two and comes in with a stout 15-2 record. This fight could inch either fighter closer to a title fight, but there’s no denying “Fluffy” is the hotter talent at the moment with eight straight wins behind him.
Looking for the best Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez pick? There are several bets worth taking, so join me as I break down the top plays en route to a final Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
- When: Saturday, February 21
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston United States
- Schedule:Main Card – 8:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Sean Strickland | +230 |
Anthony Hernandez | -285 |
Fight to Go the Distance | Yes (-110) | No (-125) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (+245) | Submission (+210) | Decision (-110) | Draw (+5000) |
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds clearly indicate Hernandez is fully expected to win. He’s a sizable -285 favorite, which suggests his star is on the rise and the older Strickland may be on his way down.
This fight is favored to finish inside the distance, but just barely. That means it could be a tough one to gauge, although the favored method of victory is still a Decision.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Sean Strickland
Strickland may be 34 now, but he hasn’t done much in recent fights to suggest he’s fully cooked. Two Decision losses by the hands of Du Plessis aren’t exactly a death sentence. He’s still within striking distance of a title shot, and a win here would be huge for his case.
Losing those fights to Du Plessis wasn’t nothing, but Strickland didn’t get KO’d, and he’s literally never been submitted. His pressure striking, pace, and defense make him an extremely tough out, as he’s only been finished twice in his career, and one of those was against Alex Pereira.
Stylistically, Strickland has the striking chops to win this matchup, as he inflicts much more damage with his fists than his opponent. The main drawback here is that Strickland is not an elite finisher, meaning he most likely needs to win on points across five rounds.
That will be tough, albeit not impossible, against a stronger grappler like Hernandez.
Anthony Hernandez
Hernandez is just two years younger than Strickland, and yet he’s far less experienced. That hasn’t really mattered, of course, as he is on an epic run that includes some really impressive wins.
He’s not just winning fights against big names, though. Beating guys like Roman Dolidze, Brendan Allen, Michel Pereira, Roman Kopylov, and Edmen Shahbazyan is a big part of his ascension. But he did more than beat most of them, as he has four finishes in those bouts.
Highly explosive and dominant, Hernandez is a submission guru that is also a high-volume takedown artist. He has the grappling edge in this bou,t and he really never relents, so fending him off and avoiding a finish for five rounds won’t be easy.
Of course, there’s a downside to backing Hernandez. He does have less experience than Strickland, and it’s arguable this is the best fighter he’s faced. Strickland’s striking is better than his, and his takedown defense is also top-notch. This could lead to Hernandez getting tired out, he could take on a lot of damage, and he could simply wilt in a clean striking exchange.
Tale of the Tape
| Sean Strickland | Anthony Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 29-7 | 15-2 |
Age | 34 | 32 |
Height | 6’1” | 6’0” |
Reach | 76” | 75” |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Style | Striker | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu |
This one is pretty straight forward. Strickland has way more experience, has fought tougher competition, and is the better striker. Hernandez is less experienced, but he’s been more dominant lately, and he has a more well-rounded skill set.
There is a mild height and reach edge in Strickland’s favor, but it’s too minor to move the needle.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Check out some key Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez matchup angles for this bout:
- Down to the Mat: Hernandez’s best bet at a finish (or a win in general) is getting Strickland to the mat. He could submit him or just win on points based on the number of takedowns and control time. Strickland’s takedown defense could pose a problem, however.
- Stand and Trade: Strickland wants to keep the fight on the feet. I doubt he can coax Hernandez into a true stand and trade, but if he did, he’d have the advantage. If he can avoid Hernandez’s takedown bids, he should be able to unleash some power and inflict plenty of damage, too.
- Cardio Battle: Strickland could run out of gas in this one due to Hernandez being so active and so aggressive with his takedowns. Defending takedowns and/or trying to escape control on the mat can be exhausting. If this fight does go five rounds, he could tire out before the final bell rings.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez bets for this weekend:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Fight to Go the Distance (-110) | Strickland has only been finished twice in his career, and he has excellent defense. I can see him keeping Hernandez at bay and inflicting enough damage to stay alive for five rounds. | 8/10 |
Sean Strickland ML (+230) | A Strickland KO is within reach, but the more likely scenario is he guts out a 5-round fight that goes the distance. I like the value of him winning either way, as he can get there with his striking volume and by defending takedowns. | 6/10 |
Strickland vs Hernandez odds reflect strong action on the favorite, but sharp bettors are eyeing decision props and underdog value. Track line movement at our trusted UFC betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on a high-variance sport like MMA. Here’s why our Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez picks could fail:
- Submission Guru: As great as Strickland’s takedown defense is, he’s getting told, and he could get tired out. There’s a first time for everything, and a submission loss would kill both of my Strickland vs. Hernandez bets.
- Heavy Fists: If anyone knocks the other guy out, one of these bets will for sure miss, and both could. Strickland getting a KO would kill the first bet, but we’d get sweet value on the ML still.
The Bottom Line: Strickland Stays in Title Conversation, Outlasts Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez is on a roll, but he’s running into perhaps the best fighter he’s faced yet. A lot of people see Strickland as a cocky one-tricky pony. Maybe there’s some truth to that, but he is still not a fun or easy matchup for Hernandez.
Strickland’s gas tank and takedown defense will be tested, but this line is too thick. He is a very good striker; he applies terrific pressure, and his defense should keep him alive in this one.
It all comes down to whether or not he can inflict enough damage and do enough to get the points he needs. Considering the price, I think he’s worth the risk.
Even if you don’t like Strickland here, there’s value in buying into how most of his fights play out. My second Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction is that this fight ends via Decision, just as 14 of Strickland’s fights have done in the past.
Win or lose, Strickland is tough as heck and can do enough to hang around for five rounds.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Sean Strickland +225 | Confidence: 6/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – Yes -110 | Confidence: 8/10
- Method of Victory – Decision -110| Confidence: 8/10
