San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction (February 11th, 2026)
The San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors face off on Wednesday night, with both sides hoping to enter the NBA All-Star Break with a win. San Antonio could be a bit tired after playing last night in a win over the Lakers, but DraftKings has them as 7.5-point favorites.
Golden State is an understandable home dog, simply because Jimmy Butler is on injured reserve and the team also won’t have leading scorer Stephen Curry. The Dubs are at home and have the rest advantage; however, while the Spurs could be without star guard Stephon Castle.
It’s always possible San Antonio opts to rest some key players here, so getting in on the Warriors ATS could make sense. I’ll dig deeper into this matchup to see if that’s a winning pick and work my way to a final Spurs vs. Warriors prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: San Antonio Spurs (37-16) vs. Golden State Warriors (29-25)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, February 11th, at 9:00 pm (10:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
- How to Watch: ESPN, FanDuel Sports Network Southwest, and NBC Sports Bay Area
Early Season Performance & Trends
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have been fantastic for most of the year. They enter this road game with a stellar 37-16 record and are just 3.5 games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top seed in the Western Conference.
San Antonio can kill you from everywhere on the floor, but everything runs through Wemby, who is an ace on both ends of the floor. That’s helped the Spurs ascend the NBA ranks quickly, putting themselves in position for the best record in all of basketball if they can finish the season strong.
The Spurs are in strong form coming into this game, as they’ve won their last five games and are 7-3 over their last 10. They enter with a nice 17-10 road record and are big favorites to get their 38th win of the season.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are an aging unit that is now down a key contributor in Jimmy Butler. That hurts their overall defense, while he was Golden State’s #2 scorer. For this particular matchup, the team also won’t have top scorer Stephen Curry, which makes a win seem unattainable going into this matchup.
That said, Golden State has done well overall on the year, as they are four games above .500 and are in position to sneak into the NBA playoffs. They have been sliding lately (4-6 over their last 10), however, so another Play-In appearance is probably the most likely scenario.
Golden State is 18-9 on their home floor and will be the more rested team in this matchup, but a general lack of star power has them as the rightful underdog.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
Golden State has had San Antonio’s number to this point, leaning on two epic performances from Steph Curry to take a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs were in both games, of course, losing by one in the most recent clash and losing by five in the first.
San Antonio stole the season series (2-1) last year, and the Warriors won’t have Curry on hand to rescue them this time around.
These two sides have faced off 191 times in history, with the Spurs dominating the series with a 117-74 lead.
Key Matchup Breakdown
San Antonio has the 7th-best scoring offense in the NBA. Wemby (24.2 ppg) gives them a rare offensive weapon that can burn defenses from anywhere on the floor, while De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle can break defenses down, score from the perimeter, set up the offense, and/or dominate in the mid-range game.
The Spurs have several outside shooters that can kill defenses from long range, too, but this is a team that first looks to push the pace and finish on the run (8th in transition points). On top of that, they dominate inside and get to the free-throw line at a rapid rate.
San Antonio could convert at the free-throw line a bit better, and they’re not a high-volume three-point offense, but they lack any glaring weaknesses overall.
Golden State is tough to gauge, as they are without Butler and Curry, who are responsible for almost 50% of their offense. Not having them for this matchup is going to sting, but the Dubs still have a plethora of perimeter players who can excel in this spot.
Curry’s absence leaves a massive hole in terms of shooting and scoring, so it will be tough to trust the Warriors’ season-long production. That said, the likes of Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, De’Anthony Melton, and Pat Spencer have flashed enough to suggest they can thrive in expanded roles.
Golden State is not a dominant offense even when at full strength, but they shoot and make more threes than anyone and are one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. That will be tested in this spot without the heart and soul of their offense, but they know how to share the ball (5th in assists per game), so don’t be shocked if they compete on their home floor.
Golden State was a strong defensive team with Jimmy Butler in tow, but they naturally can’t be expected to be as good moving forward. The Dubs still rank 10th in scoring defense and 10th in defensive efficiency, however.
The Warriors are not good at stopping teams in transition, but their interior defense is solid, and they are 10th at defending the long ball.
San Antonio is the easier team to trust defensively right now. Wemby’s shot-blocking presence is huge, while the Spurs rank 8th in scoring and 3rd in efficiency on the defensive end of the floor.
The Spurs are very tough down low, but they give up a lot of volume from the perimeter and rank just 20th at defending the three.
In terms of pace, both teams are middle of the pack. Golden State ranks 15th in pace, while the Spurs are just 18th.
- Warriors perimeter offense vs. Spurs perimeter defense: Curry is out, but the Warriors still share the ball well and have several dangerous outside shooters. That bodes well for them against a Spurs defense that gives it up from long range.
- Spurs interior offense vs. Warriors interior defense: It’s unclear if Wemby will for sure be available tonight, but the Spurs may find life difficult against a solid interior Golden State defense, either way.
- Free Throw Battle: The Spurs get to the line and don’t allow the opposing team to do the same. Golden State struggles to get to the line, but also limits the opponent’s trips. This could end up being a key battle, with San Antonio’s free-throw opportunities being more crucial.
The Spurs are 29-23-2 against the spread on the year. They are surprisingly 7-2 against the spread with a rest disadvantage, while they are 7-3 ATS with no rest. The Spurs are also 18-17-2 ATS when favored and 6-7-1 ATS as the road favorite.
Golden State has gone just 25-29 against the spread overall, but they are 8-6 ATS with the rest advantage and 14-13 ATS at home. They are 20-24 ATS in non-division games and 7-8 against the spread as the underdog.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Spurs vs. Warriors odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | -8 (-110) | -270 | Over 220.5 (-110) |
Warriors | +8 (-110) | +220 | Under 220.5 (-110) |
Both teams are shorthanded, but the Spurs being almost 8-point favorites on the road after playing the previous night is interesting. San Antonio is the rightful favorite, though, as even at less than full strength, they are the better team and likely winner.
This is a very low game total. This leans into Golden State missing their top two offensive weapons and San Antonio being very strong defensively.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The immediate value is with the Warriors against the spread. San Antonio probably wins, and Golden State is obviously missing key scorers, but they’re at home and will have the fatigue edge.
This game’s total is very low and feels trappy. If I had to bet on it I’d target the Under due to fatigue and missing bodies, but ultimately it’s a bet I’d rather leave alone. The Spurs’ ML is very intriguing. The price isn’t amazing, but it still feels like a solid value.
Situational Considerations
The Warriors are extremely banged up. Steph Curry has already been ruled out for this game, and the team placed Jimmy Butler on IR. They come in more rested than the Spurs, though, as San Antonio played last night.
The Spurs could rest some key starters. This is the second leg of a back-to-back set, so someone like Wemby will be at risk of randomly sitting out.
Guard Stephon Castle also exited the game last night for the Spurs and was unable to return, making him unlikely to be available for Wednesday’s tilt.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Warriors ATS +8 (-110) | The Spurs played last night and could be without key bodies on the road. There’s enough here, and the spread is big enough that I think Golden State ATS is sneaky. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Pat Spencer Over 2+ Made Threes (+102) | This feels like a steal. Spencer averages 0.8 made threes per game and has a huge role right now with the Dubs missing Curry and Butler. The matchup and volume are there for the taking. | 7/10 |
Spurs ML (-270) | The other two picks offer way better value, but I don’t see the Spurs actually losing this game. Bet on the Dubs to keep it interesting and Spencer to be part of the fun, but San Antonio should still find a way to get the win. | 8/10 |
As betting lines shift for Spurs vs. Warriors, bettors search for value tied to injuries, rest advantage, and late market movement. Compare updated odds at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 115, Golden State Warriors 110
San Antonio is the better team, and I think betting on them to win at -250 is in play. My main Spurs vs. Warriors prediction is that they do find a way to win, so if you want to just hammer that ML, I think it’s an OK bet to attack.
The value is with the point spread, however. I took the Spurs to cover last night in L.A., but I’m less excited to do the same here. They’re playing a second game in a row, they lost Castle to an injury, they’re on the road again, and it wouldn’t at all be shocking if they rested Wemby or any number of their key rotational guys.
Golden State still has some feisty players at their disposal, and their best asset – their outside shooting – is precisely what can burn the Spurs. Look for the Dubs to get hot and keep this one close at home.
