Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction (February 12th, 2026)
The 2026 Dallas Open continues with the Round of 16 on Thursday, with the 7th seed, Denis Shapovalov, and unranked Aleksandar Kovacevic facing off.
DraftKings has Shapovalov entering this match as the clear betting favorite (-245). Shapovalov has the best odds to sweep the match (+110) in two games, while he’s a heavy -165 favorite to win more than 12.5 games.
This best-of-three showdown could easily go down to the wire, as Kovacevic is a -140 favorite to win 12 games. It’s pretty likely both won’t be true, though. It’d take three sets, and they would need to be reasonably close for both players to hit.
The better path is to pick a side, but who should bettors back? I’ll look over the latest odds and highlight my top picks en route to a final Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic prediction.
Match Details
- Date & Time: Thursday, February 12, 2026, from 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, Texas
- Tournament: Dallas Open (ATP 500)
- Round: Round of 16
- Surface: Indoor Hard Court
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic odds over at DraftKings:
- Denis Shapovalov: -245
- Aleksandar Kovacevic: +197
- Shapovalov Games Won: Over 12.5 (-165) | Under 12.5 (+120)
- Kovacevic Games Won: Over 11.5 (-140) | Under 11.5 (+100)
What the Odds Tell Us
Denis Shapovalov is the obvious favorite to win. He’s the 7th seed in this tourney, and he’s easily the more accomplished tennis player between the two.
Shapovalov is also coming in with better odds in set betting and with wagers for games won. He is expected to top 12.5 games won in this match and is more likely to do so than Kovacevic is to reach 12 wins.
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Denis Shapovalov
The 26-year-old Canadian has four career singles titles to his name. He has no grand slam title wins, but he’s reached the quarter-finals or further in three different events.
Shapovalov is a hit-or-miss player with a so-so record (233-194), but he’s definitely talented and at one point worked his way to being the 10th-ranked player in the world.
He fell out of the top-30, but stormed back in 2025 when he won the 2025 Dallas Open. He’s obviously hoping to do that again. On top of the Dallas Open title last year, he also reached the final of the Los Cabos Open and took down Thursday’s very opponent, Aleksandar Kovacevic.
Shapovalov brings aggressive left-hand offense to the table, as he’s able to convert high-risk shots. He deploys a one-handed backhand and uses an aggressive forehand to control pace and pick opportunistic spots to strike.
A quality athlete with a big serve, Shapovalov can dominate from all over the court and is a tough out in rallies. His downfall is actually his strength, as his aggressive and risky style can sometimes lead to errors and inconsistent performance.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
The 27-year-old Kovacevic is not as accomplished as Shapovalov, as he has zero career singles titles to his name. He’s also never made it out of the second round at any Grand Slam events.
He did make it to the final at the Los Cabos Open last year, but he fell to Denis in this same matchup. He lost in straight sets in a match that never felt all that close.
To his credit, Kovacevic hasn’t been doing this for very long. He has a suspect 30-55 professional record and has only been in action at this level since 2021. He did have success at a lower level, as he secured Challenger titles at the 2023 Cleveland Open, the 2023 Texas Tennis Classic, and the 2023 Shenzhen Longhua Open.
All of that shows Kovacevic is talented and can go deep in tourneys, but the jump in competition hasn’t allowed his skill and production to translate just yet. He’s slowly crept his way into the top-60 due to some deep tourney runs, but the lack of experience and wins at a high level are concerning for anyone looking to bet on him to win.
Kovacevic prefers to hang out at the baseline, and he’s a righty, unlike his opponent. He thrives on hard courts and builds his game behind a strong serve and a reliable forehand. He tends to be reliant on building steam with his serve and is aggressive on the baseline, but his return game has been a weakness, and he has yet to display consistency against top-shelf competition.
Head-to-Head Record
| Denis Shapovalov | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 1 | 0 |
Losses | 0 | 1 |
Total Wins | 233 | 30 |
Grand Slams | 0 | 0 |
These two faced off last year at the Los Cabos Open in a match Shapovalov was the aggressor. He’s the more experienced, more composed, and more polished player. These guys play different games, too, so with much more experience against top-level talent, Shapovalov once again has the clear upper hand.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s investigate the key Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic matchup factors to decide who will win and how you need to bet:
- Serve vs. Return: Both of these guys offer a strong serve, but to this point, Kovacevic is far worse at returning deadly serves. His serve needs to be on point, and his return game needs to be way better than what we’ve seen, or else he’s in big trouble.
- Unforced Errors: This is where Kovacevic might have an edge. Shapovalov’s superior talent and experience weirdly doesn’t protect him from some reckless play, and if he gets too carried away, he could make enough mistakes to leave the door open to an upset.
- One-Tricky Pony: The biggest key to this match is the fact that Shapovalov is a more versatile and more aggressive offensive player. Kovacevic probably needs things to go just right and for him to have the ability to camp out on the baseline. It’s not very realistic to assume everything goes his way, however.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic picks:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Set Betting: Shapovalov 2:0 (+110) | Shapovalov swept this same matchup last year, and I think he will do it again. You can play it safe with his ML (-245), but I love this plus money bet. | 7/10 |
Shapovalov Games Won Under 12.5 (+120) | Shapovalov is not a great matchup for Kovacevic. If he plays his game, he should win both sets and end this thing early, which would keep him from hitting Over 12.5 games won. | 6/10 |
Shapovalov ML (-245) | Denis has the edge across the board and should win. The only question is whether or not you want to bet on this -245 price. | 9/10 |
As betting lines change for Shapovalov vs. Kovacevic, bettors look for value on set betting and total games markets. Compare updated odds at our top sports betting sites.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things don’t always go as planned in tennis betting. Here’s how my Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic bets could miss the mark:
- Put Up a Fight: Kovacevic is inexperienced, but he’s shown growth over the past two years. If he puts up more of a fight than expected, we could whiff on both of my Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic picks.
- Not So Easy: In the event that Kovacevic is better than anticipated, he can still mess up my bets without even winning. If he simply pushes Denis to the brink in one set, Shapovalov may need 13 wins to sweep the match. Forcing a third set would also ruin both of my bets.
- Upset Special: Kovacevic could also ruin everything by coming out and dishing out some sweet revenge. If he straight-up beats Shapovalov, my picks are dead in the water.
The Bottom Line: Shapovalov Dominates Kovacevic, Advances to QF
This is Denis Shapovalov’s match to lose. He’s the 7th seed, he’s a big favorite, he has way more experience, he’s the better player, and he knows how to beat Kovacevic.
Literally everything points to him getting the win. My main Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic prediction is that he lives up to his status as the favorite. But targeting his moneyline is admittedly probably not the best option for bettors.
Instead, I like him to win in straight sets, and if he does that, I think he’ll also go Under 12.5 games won. We’re getting two plus money bets that perfectly align with the moneyline, and we simply need the better player to execute.
Want a third bet for hedging? Consider Kovacevic Over 11.5 games won. In the event he upsets Shapovalov and eradicates my top two picks, he’d 100% clear this bet.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Denis Shapovalov (-245) | Confidence: 9/10
- Set Betting – Shapovalov 2:0 (+110) | Confidence 7/10
- Shapovalov Games Won – Under 12.5 (+120) | Confidence 6/10
