Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Best Bets (Wednesday, January 21st, 2026)
The Detroit Red Wings continue their push for first place on Wednesday night, as they head north to battle the rival Toronto Maple Leafs. Detroit comes in as mild -102 underdogs in what is a virtual pick’em at DraftKings, while the Maple Leafs try to climb the ladder in the stacked Atlantic Division.
Detroit could very easily be favored here, as they come into town with a stout 30-16-4 record and are just one win behind the Tampa Bay Lightning for first place in the division. Of course, this game is in Toronto, where the Maple Leafs have played their best hockey (16-6-5) by far.
Bettors get reasonable value no matter which way they attack this thing, but you don’t just want value; you want winning Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs picks. My goal is to get you just that, so join me as I analyze the latest odds en route to my top Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction.
Game Info
- Matchup: Detroit Red Wings (30-16-4) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (24-17-8)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, January 21st, 2026, at 6:00 pm (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON
- How to Watch:HBO Max, TNT and truTV
Betting Odds
Take a look at the latest Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds, courtesy of FanDuel:
| Team | Puck Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Red Wings | +1.5 (-265) | -102 | Over 6.5 (+106) |
Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+210) | -118 | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Recent Form & Context
To get a better idea as to what to expect out of this matchup, let’s quickly break down how these teams have fared to this point.
Detroit Red Wings
- The Red Wings have been an average offensive team, averaging 3.10 goals per game, ranking 17th in the NHL.
- Detroit thrives in power play, as they have the third most power play goals (40) and rank 6th in power play percentage (25.2%).
- The Red Wings are a high-volume offense (10th in shots), but rank just 15th in shooting percentage.
- Detroit is a middle-of-the-pack unit defensively and ranks 15th in save rate.
Injuries
- Detroit has no key injuries at the time of this write-up.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto has a very good offense, as they rank 5th in hockey with 3.37 goals scored per game.
- The Maple Leafs struggle offensively in power play, as they are tied for 30th with just 21 power play goals and rank 23rd in power play percentage (17.2%).
- Toronto is a very efficient offense. They only take the 21st most shots in the NHL, but they are inside the top-5 in shooting percentage (12.4%).
- Toronto struggles defensively, allowing 3.33 goals per contest (25th). However, they are elite against power play.
- The Maple Leafs rank dead last in shots allowed. They also rank first in saves, but are just 12th in save rate (.900).
Injuries
- G Anthony Stolarz is nearing a return, but is not expected to play on Wednesday.
- RW William Nylander was placed on injured reserve on January 19th.
- D Dakota Mermis is nearing a return, but is not a lock to play on Wednesday.
- D Chris Tanev and C Dakota Joshua remain on injured reserve.
Matchup Breakdown
The Red Wings have a lot to play for, as they are neck and neck with Tampa Bay for the top of the Atlantic Division. They are in good form, too, as they’ve won their last two and are 7-2-1 over their last 10 games. Detroit has also dominated Toronto this year, going up 3-0 in the season series.
Detroit is the much more dominant team, as they excel in power play and generate a lot of volume offensively. They’re not super scary outside of power play and boast a fairly average defense, but they are the more balanced team compared to Toronto.
The Maple Leafs have a mild edge at home, where they have largely taken care of business (16-6-5) this year. They are still looking for an answer to the Red Wings, but they have a respectable 24-17-8 overall record and can still make a playoff push.
Toronto is in solid form, going 6-2-2 over their last 10 contests. The Maple Leafs are not very good defensively, but their regular offense is very good. They are also the far interior team when looking at power play impact.
To their credit, Toronto has played Detroit tight lately. They dropped the first meeting 6-2, but the last two games have gone to overtime, resulting in close 3-2 finals in favor of the Red Wings.
Playing Styles & Trends
- Detroit: Detroit is capable on offense sans power play, as they lean on skill and their ability to finish close to the net. Alex DeBrincat (26 goals) and Dylan Larkin (24) pace a solid overall offense, but one that does a huge amount of their damage in power play.
- Toronto: The Maple Leafs are the more dangerous offense outside of power play, relying on elite shot creation and strong finishing ability. Superstar C Auston Matthews (25 goals) powers a very good offense, and he gets considerable help from five other players in double figures for goals scored.
- Special Teams: Detroit is the way better power play team. They are top-6 in both power play rate and power play goals scored. That said, Toronto ranks very low in penalty minutes, and they also have an elite 83% penalty kill rate (5th).
- Defense: The Red Wings are capable defensively, but they’re overall pretty average. Toronto are far worse defensively, but they do a good job in power play situations.
Betting Market Notes
- Puck Line (1.5: -265/+215): The Red Wings are huge favorites to keep this game within two goals. Toronto is +215 to win by two, which looks like a huge reach given how the series has gone so far this year.
- Moneyline (-102/-118): This is priced as a virtual pick’em when it comes to the moneyline. Toronto is getting some respect at home, plus the last two meetings went to overtime.
- Total (6.5: +105/-125): This is a high total, and the Over is an underdog bet. The first meeting totaled eight goals, but the last two failed to top five goals despite going into an extra period.
Props & Alternative Markets
- Anytime Goal Scorer – Auston Matthews (+105): Auston Matthews has 25 goals on the year and is often one of the most reliable threats to score a goal. He’s coming in at +105, making him a pretty attractive bet to find the net. Given Detroit’s middling defense, the game being in Toronto, and the high total, I think he’s a great bet to deliver.
- Lucas Raymond Over 1+ Assist (+120): Another Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs prop bet I like is Raymond to get at least one assist. This one also is a plus-money bet, and it’s a solid option considering he’s collected 38 assists so far this year. Detroit is obviously a very good bet to score a couple of goals in this one, and he’s by far Detroit’s main set-up man on offense.
Best Bets for Detroit vs. Toronto
Check out my preferred Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs bets for tonight:
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Detroit Red Wings ML (-102) | The Red Wings are the better team; they can be dominant in power play, and Toronto’s overall defense is suspect. They have also had Toronto’s number and can go for the 4-0 sweep. On top of that, their price is too good to pass up. | 7/10 |
Under 6.5 (-130) | There should be some scoring in this one, but Toronto’s strong defense against power play does complicate matters. I think the game is tight and we get some goals, but 6.5 is a high total and the last two games have hit the Under. | 6/10 |
Prop Play – Auston Matthews Anytime Goal Scorer (+105) | Matthews is an elite goal scorer, and Detroit’s defense isn’t that scary. The high game total also plays into this being a reasonable bet at plus money. | 6/10 |
As Red Wings vs. Leafs odds shift throughout the market, value windows can open fast — monitor line movement, compare books, and grab the strongest number early at the top sports betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Betting on hockey can be risky, so keep the following things in mind when placing these Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs bets:
- 4th Time’s the Charm: Detroit has had Toronto’s number this year, but the last two games went to OT. A division rival could easily gut out an upset on their home ice.
- Scoring Upside: The total is high, but the first game between these two teams did total eight goals. When you have an offense as good as the Maple Leafs and a lethal Detroit power play offense, the Over is going to be at risk.
- Goal Variance: Auston Matthews is a stud, and he’s at home in a beatable matchup, but he also doesn’t score every single time he’s in a good spot. As good as he is, he could always be due to go scoreless after netting a goal in each of his last three outings.
Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction
Toronto gave Detroit a fight the last two times and got smoked in the first meeting. After coming up short two games in a row, I think Detroit reverts back to dominance, initiating and taking the game over in power play situations.
Toronto’s offense can be nasty, but they are not scary defensively, and they really haven’t been able to figure the Red Wings out this year. That has my main Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs prediction being a Detroit win, as their price is insanely low.
The high game total is cause for pause due to the offensive aptitude for both of these teams, but I think the Under hits despite a bit of a sweat for bettors.
There is a lot to like in the way of props for this game. Auston Matthews scoring a goal is probably the best plus-money bet for this contest, but I also really like Lucas Raymond to get an assist at an even better price.
Final Score Prediction: Detroit Red Wings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
