New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets Prediction (March 13th, 2026)
Friday’s NBA slate is ghastly and riddled with landmines. One spot where bettors can find some solace? A Western Conference tilt between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets.
These are two of the few teams on this slate that didn’t play last night, which means they could be fresh coming into this matchup. Houston does have to wait for news on big man Alperen Sengun, but his potential absence would only make this game more interesting.
FanDuel has the Rockets coming in as pretty hefty 7-point favorites at home at the moment, but there’s reason to believe New Orleans can give them a run for their money. In addition, that spread could shrink if Sengun ends up getting ruled out.
The time to bet on the Pelicans vs. Rockets game is now, but where do you start? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll analyze the latest odds, point you to the best bets, and wrap things up with a final New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans (22-45) vs. Houston Rockets (40-25)
- Date & Time: Friday, March 13th, 2026, at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Toyota Center in Houston, TX
- How to Watch: Gulf Coast Sports, NBA League Pass, Pelicans.com, and Space City Home Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
New Orleans Pelicans
Don’t look now, but the New Orleans Pelicans are kind of (gulp) good. The Pels don’t own their first-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, meaning they didn’t go out of their way to tank.
Their season has admittedly been brutal, and they’re just 22-45 on the year, but not tanking has given them the freedom to actually kick the tires on their roster. That’s led to the return of star point guard Dejounte Murray and Zion Williamson playing meaningful minutes.
The health of both of those guys is a priority, but what we’re seeing out of the Pels suggests this team may not be that far away from playoff contention. New Orleans is in fantastic form at the moment, as they’ve won their last two games and are 7-3 over their last 10 contests.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets had title aspirations before the 2025-26 NBA season started. The landscape of the Western Conference suggests they’re not that close to reaching their goals, but they still come in at a rock-solid 40-25 on the year.
Despite their shortcomings, that’s good for fourth place in the loaded Western Conference. Offseason addition Kevin Durant has been everything the franchise could have hoped for despite his advanced age, and you can never say never once this team enters the NBA playoffs.
Houston has consistency issues, but they are a balanced team that is trending in a positive direction. The Rockets did lose their most recent game, but they’re a solid 6-4 over their last 10 games and enter this matchup with a strong 22-8 record on their home floor.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Pelicans and Rockets have duked it out on the hardwood just 88 times in league history. The Rockets predictably hold the edge, going up 49-39 in the series. They’ve used recent dominance to extend their lead, as they’ve won five of the last six meetings.
Houston swept the season series (4-0) last year, and none of the games were particularly close. The Pels upset them in a wild 133-128 OT thriller in December, though, and the most recent game in January (119-110) was still fairly competitive.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Pelicans are a tough offense to gauge when looking at the whole season, as they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries. Overall, they rank surprisingly decent across the board, as they are 17th in scoring, 11th in rebounding, 7th in fast break, and 1st in points in the paint.
Zion Williamson has found a way to stay healthier than usual this year, and he’s enjoyed a solid campaign with 21.4 points per game. Trey Murphy has paced the Pels with 22 points per game, while a healthy Dejounte Murray is putting up 17.5 points and 5.4 assists per game in seven games since returning from an Achilles injury.
New Orleans could be better on the perimeter, but they have a strong inside/outside attack that could give the Rockets fits.
The Rockets are an isolation-heavy offense that relies on an aging Kevin Durant (25.8 ppg). Sengun is a fantastic second scoring option inside (20.1 ppg), however, while Amen Thompson (17.7 ppg) and Reed Sheppard (13.3 ppg) chip in as needed.
Houston’s offense is by far at its best when Sheppard is in the mix, as he creates more spacing and can help keep the ball moving. Stagnance is an issue (27th in assists), while this offense could be more efficient in general.
The Rockets rank just 21st in points per game, but they are very good inside (5th), and they can hit from long range (36.4%) at a top-10 clip. For this game, their offensive upside hinges on the availability of Sengun. He and KD can be ball stoppers for this team, but they’re also key scorers that elevate Houston’s offensive ceiling.
The Pelicans want to get out and run, as they enter this game with the league’s 9th fastest pace. Their scoring and pace can make up for a terrible defense, as they enter this game ranked 26th in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency.
New Orleans isn’t very good on defense across the board. They rank 25th in transition, 24th at defending the paint, and give up a ton of threes. Oddly enough, though, they do rank 5th in three-point percentage allowed.
Houston is the antithesis of the Pelicans. They play very slow (28th) and defend very well. Sengun is inconsistent on the inside (11th) defensively, but Houston ranks 4th in scoring defense and 10th against the three-ball. They also do a great job at limiting trips to the free throw line and are the #1 rebounding team in the NBA.
- Rebounding Battle: The Rockets are elite on the glass, but that could change if Sengun misses this one. New Orleans (11th) isn’t half bad, either. Houston has the edge with Sengun, but if he’s out, that could tip the scales.
- Rockets perimeter offense vs. Pelicans perimeter defense: New Orleans can get eaten alive inside, but they try to force a lot of threes. They’ve done a great job containing the three in terms of conversion rate, though. If that continues against the likes of Reed Sheppard, it could give the Pels an edge.
- Zion vs. Rockets interior defense: Sengun and KD could feast on the Pels down low just the same, but Zion needs to force the issue down low for New Orleans. Houston’s interior defense would be better if Sengun misses this one, though, and that could negatively impact how much success Williamson enjoys.
The Pelicans have been very good (38-28-1) against the spread. New Orleans has gone 17-16 ATS on the road and 28-25-1 ATS as the underdog. They’re also 10-2 ATS within their division this year.
Houston hasn’t been as good (29-36) against the spread. The Rockets have gone just 12-17 ATS as the home favorite and they are just 2-10 ATS inside their own division.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Pelicans | +7 (-110) | +220 | Over 230.5 (-106) |
Rockets | -7 (-110) | -270 | Under 230.5 (-114) |
This is a pretty big spread considering how well New Orleans has been playing lately. Still, when looking at the records of both teams and Houston’s home dominance, the pricing is fair.
The game total is quite high. That has everything to do with the fast pace the Pelicans play at, as well as their weak overall defense.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The Pelicans are such an easy smash against the spread. They are not the same team that got off to a brutal start this year, as they are much healthier and much more cohesive now. I think getting a win on the road against a playoff team might be a reach, but they can beat this spread.
The other smash bet is the Over. Houston plays slow and can defend very well, but the Pels are a sieve defensively and will try to push the pace. If they can speed the tempo up, the Over will easily hit.
Situational Considerations
New Orleans is remarkably healthy right now. Bench player Bryce McGowens is their only injury of note, as he is not expected to face Houston due to a fractured toe.
Houston could be down a key body for this one, as star center Alperen Sengun is listed as questionable with a back issue. This would be a huge absence that would give the Pelicans a big boost in their plight to keep this game competitive.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Pelicans ATS +7 (-110) | The best bet on the board is the Pels to beat the spread. They are in really good form, and Houston could be down a key contributor. Even if Sengun plays, the Rockets are inconsistent enough to roll the dice on New Orleans hanging around. | 7/10 |
Over 230.5 (-106) | Houston’s slow pace and defense make this one a hair below a slam dunk, but it’s still a great bet. New Orleans plays fast, and they don’t defend. If they can pull the Rockets into a fast-paced shootout, the Over is a total smash. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Kevin Durant to Score 25+ Points (-159) | KD is going to get his. Sengun missing this game would boost the price and make this a lock. I think it might be a lock, anyways. Durant is averaging 25.9 ppg, and the Pels are a dream matchup. | 7/10 |
With Zion Williamson and Kevin Durant headlining this matchup, Pelicans vs. Rockets odds offer intriguing betting angles. Compare line movement at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Houston Rockets 122, New Orleans Pelicans 117
This game should be fun. Sengun’s status is definitely something to keep in mind, but if he’s in Houston’s offense will simply perform better. If he’s out, the Rockets lean harder on KD, Amen Thompson, and Reed Sheppard, and the Pels have a better shot at keeping it close.
All roads lead to my top Pelicans vs. Rockets prediction, which is New Orleans to put up a fight and beat the spread. I can see this spread shrinking if Sengun gets ruled out early, so I’d pounce on it ASAP.
The Over is right there with it as a strong secondary bet, while Durant is a really good bet to get 25+ points due to his usage rate and the matchup at hand. Overall, this game should be fast-paced with a good amount of scoring. Bettors can cash in on these Pelicans vs. Rockets picks while enjoying one of the few close games on tonight’s NBA betting slate.
