Denver Nuggets vs. New York Knicks Prediction (February 4th, 2026)
NBA betting is pretty volatile these days due to the trade deadline looming. To avoid the chaos, it’s best to target games that likely won’t be involved in the madness.
That brings me to a fun clash between the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks, as we know the motivations for both of these teams. They’re also on an even playing field, as both teams were in action last night.
Denver does come in as a surprising 6.5-point road underdog at DraftKings, which is an eyebrow raiser. That could suggest one or more of their stars are taking the night off, but with the 2-seed in the Western Conference within striking distance, I’m not totally sold.
Beyond that, it’s a really thick spread for a team that is every bit as good as the Knicks. Of course, there are more bets to target in this game, too, so I’ll break it all down and point you to the top picks en route to a final Nuggets vs. Knicks prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Denver Nuggets (33-18) vs. New York Knicks (32-18)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, February 4th, at 6:00 pm (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Madison Square Garden in New York, NY
- How to Watch: ESPN, Altitude 2 Sports, and MSG Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets remain a top contender in the Western Conference, as they enter Madison Square Garden with a strong 33-18 record and sit #3 in their conference.
Jamal Murray has kept the team afloat despite not having star center Nikola Jokic for 16 games. Jokic is back, though, and he’s got the NBA MVP in his line of sight; one reason why him resting for any games down the stretch seems relatively unlikely.
Denver is still missing some key pieces to their rotation, but they are playing well and have a lot to gain by winning a tough road game like this.
The Nuggets are not far removed from winning an NBA championship. Getting healthy could be their main objective as they work to get back to the NBA Finals again.
New York Knicks
The Knicks got all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, and this season they won the NBA Cup. Jalen Brunson and co. have formed a rock-solid team that comes in at 32-18 and settles in at second place in the Eastern Conference.
Both of these teams are still very much jockeying for position in their respective conferences and have title aspirations. New York may feel a bit more urgency, of course, as they have the Boston Celtics, among others, breathing down their neck in the standings.
On paper, the Knicks are elite (20-6) at home and have a cohesive team that can battle with anyone. They are also red hot at the moment, having won each of their last seven contests.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Nuggets and Knicks do not have a rich history, having played each other just 101 times in team history. Denver holds a mild edge in the series, going 52-49 against the Knicks so far.
New York won the season series 2-0 last year, with both victories coming by 10+ points. The two sides split the series the year prior, while the winner of this matchup has won by 10+ in four straight games.
Overall, the Knicks are 5-1 over the last six meetings, and the home team has emerged victorious in four of the last five games.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Denver runs their offense through Nikola Jokic, who is once again putting up mind-boggling numbers. Jokic can score down low, hit shots from the outside, and complete other-worldly passes en route to a staggering 29-12-10 stat line.
The Nuggets definitely missed him while he was out, as he can demand the defense’s attention, both as a scorer and a distributor. He is an absolute menace offensively, helping Denver rank 2nd in scoring and 9th in assists.
Jamal Murray is a stellar second scorer for the Nuggets, as he pours in 25.6 points per game and can also set his teammates up (7.5 assists per game). Both of their ability to penetrate and collapse the defense creates easy knockdown shots, which play into Denver’s ranking #1 in three-point percentage.
The Nuggets are also top-10 at getting to the free throw line, while their ball-sharing ways contribute to the league’s most efficient shooting offense.
New York’s offense runs through star point guard Jalen Brunson, who is a terror in isolation. He’s small in stature, but he can take over games, whether he’s working the ball inside or torching the nets from long range.
While Brunson does most of the heavy-lifting on offense with 27 points per game, he is aided by big man Karl-Anthony Towns (19.7 ppg) and a nice cast of surrounding weapons.
The likes of Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges chip in as needed for the NBA’s 7th-best scoring offense. While Brunson demands the ball a good amount, New York still ranks 10th in assists per game, and they’re one of the best perimeter offenses in all of basketball.
New York struggles to get to the free-throw line consistently and doesn’t generate a ton of scoring inside, however.
Both of these teams play a slower brand of basketball and prefer to live in half-court settings. The Knicks rank 23rd in pace and rank just 14th in fastbreak points per game, while the Nuggets are 26th in pace and 19th in fastbreak points per game.
Defensively, the Knicks are the much better team. New York ranks 6th in scoring on defense, are 11th in transition, and 4th inside the paint. The Knicks are strong defensively down low, but they do give up quite a bit of volume from long range.
The Nuggets are just 17th in scoring defense and are league average in several key categories. They are not imposing in the paint defensively, but they are a top-10 unit at defending the long ball.
- Denver’s perimeter offense vs. New York’s perimeter defense: The Nuggets are getting healthy and have the best three-point shooting team in the NBA. That could be a problem for the Knicks, who allow 38.4 long ball attempts per game (23rd) and give up a 36% conversion rate (19th) from deep.
- Nikola Jokic vs. New York’s interior defense: New York defends the paint well, but that usually ties to having a healthy Mitchell Robinson. He sat out New York’s last game, so they’ll need to have him on hand to slow Jokic down in the paint.
- New York’s perimeter offense vs. Denver’s perimeter defense: The Knicks are also very good from long range, but the Nuggets defend the three pretty well. Denver is missing some key defenders, however, so they could have a tough time tracking New York’s outside shooters.
Both of these teams played last night, so they will be at least somewhat fatigued. When playing on no rest, Denver is 7-3 against the spread, while the Knicks are just 3-4.
New York has been pretty tough to beat (20-6) at the Madison Square Garden this year, and it’s worth noting that they are 18-8 ATS at home and 17-8 ATS as the home favorite.
The Knicks are a respectable 28-23 overall against the spread this season, while they are riding a 7-game winning streak and are 20-12 ATS following a victory.
Denver isn’t as hot as the Knicks, but they are better overall (30-21) against the spread. The Nuggets are 16-13 ATS with equal rest as their opponent, and they are also 12-5 ATS as the underdog.
The Nuggets have gone 19-8 on the road this year and are 18-9 ATS away from home.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Nuggets vs. Knicks betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | +5.5 (-108) | +184 | Over 226.5 (-115) |
Knicks | -5.5 (-112) | -220 | Under 226.5 (-105) |
The Nuggets vs. Knicks odds are pretty interesting, as the gap between these two teams is not actually this large. Part of the pricing has to do with New York’s form and stellar play at home, but the odds suggest a key play from Denver is taking the night off.
The game total is pretty healthy despite New York being solid defensively and both teams playing a slower brand of basketball.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The instant knee-jerk reaction is that Denver at +6.5 is a hammer bet. Even if Jamal Murray or a rotational player sits, the Nuggets are a screaming value with this point spread.
Jokic seems very unlikely to sit, as it would kill any chance he’d have at being eligible to win the NBA MVP award this year. The team has given no indication of severe restrictions on back-to-back sets, either.
I don’t feel obligated to chase Denver’s moneyline or mess with the game total necessarily, but the point spread is an obvious smash, as the Nuggets have been competitive even when they rest their stars.
Situational Considerations
Given the point spread, it’d be somewhat surprising if the Nuggets were at full strength for this game. Nothing is official yet, and I tend to doubt Jokic would be the one to sit due to MVP eligibility issues, but keep an eye out for who might rest.
Denver will for sure be without Aaron Gordon. Christian Braun and Cam Johnson are two other key names – especially for their perimeter offense – to monitor.
The Knicks should be mostly at full strength. Center Mitchell Robinson is the big name to watch, as he sat out yesterday’s game versus the Wizards. If that was simply in preparation for him to battle Jokic tonight, he could be good to go. His status is crucial, as the Knicks see a dip in their interior defense without him in the lineup.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Nuggets +5.5 (-108) | Denver is better than this spread. Even if they sit some guys, they play great team basketball and are competitive on the road. This is a hammer bet, and it started at 7.5 and could keep sliding. | 8/10 |
Prop Play – Peyton Watson 2+ Made Threes (+112) | Watson still has a big role with Aaron Gordon out. He’s shooting 42% from long range and has connected on two or more threes in five of his last eight games, while the Knicks do not defend the long ball well at all. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Nikola Jokic to Get a Triple-Double (+311) | This is just a really nice price for a constant triple-double threat. Jokic missed 16 games and still has 16 triple-doubles on the year. There is risk baked into it, but +311 for something that happens almost every other game for him is a really good flier bet. | 6/10 |
Odd lines are shifting for Nuggets vs. Knicks as bettors react to rest situations and Denver’s underdog value. Track line movement and compare our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: New York Knicks 113, Denver Nuggets 110
My main Knicks vs. Nuggets prediction is that we get a good game and Denver beats the spread. I know the Knicks are on fire at the moment and tough to beat at home, but there’s a decent argument that Denver is simply the better team.
Betting against Nikola Jokic in general isn’t very wise. I won’t go as far as to take the Nuggets straight up – as tempting as that may be – but they absolutely should be able to make a game of it.
Additionally, I really like some Nuggets vs. Knicks player props that we can attack. They fit the matchup well and don’t work against my top Nuggets vs. Knicks pick whatsoever.
This is not a game I’d go hard at the ML or attack the total. If I had to, though, I’d much rather bet on the Denver moneyline than the Knicks.
