Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers CBB Prediction (February 13th, 2026)
A huge Big 10 battle goes down at the Kohl Center on Friday night, as the 5th-place Michigan State Spartans prepare to face off with the 6th-place Wisconsin Badgers. FanDuel has the 10th-ranked Spartans as just 2.5-point favorites on the road, as Wisconsin has been a tough out all year and clearly has a ton to play for.
Wisconsin comes in at 17-7 with a stout 12-2 mark at home. They’ll look to defend their court while trying to get their 10th win inside conference play. If they can do that, they will inch closer to first place. A loss, however, would almost certainly end their bid for the regular-season conference title.
The Spartans have just as much incentive to win, of course. Tom Izzo’s crew can pull to within two games of first-place Michigan, although a pedestrian 4-2 road record could be tested in a hostile environment.
The margin for error is thin for both teams, but that’s also the case if you’re betting on who will win between Michigan State and Wisconsin. If you need some help, I’ll point you in the right direction, as I’ll analyze the latest odds, highlight the top picks, and close with a final Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (20-4) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (17-7)
- Date & Time: Friday, February 13th, at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Kohl Center in Madison, WI
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on FOX One
Early Season Performance & Trends
Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans have had a really nice season so far, going 20-4 overall and 10-3 in the Big 10. If they play their cards right, they might have a chance to win the conference regular season title yet, while they come in ranked 10th in the country.
Tom Izzo’s group is feisty on defense, per usual, and they’ve given every team they’ve faced the fight of their lives. The Spartans got off to a nice 8-0 start before falling to a great Duke Blue Devils team by six, while their only “bad” loss was to a Michigan Wolverines team that is ranked 2nd in the nation with just one loss to their name.
Michigan State has admittedly gotten tripped up more recently, though. In addition to losing to Michigan, they lost by three to Minnesota on the road. They bounced back last time out against Illinois, but they needed overtime to do it.
Their trademark defense hasn’t really been top shelf over their last four games, and they’re just 2-2 in that span.
Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers have adapted with the times. They are no longer reliant on stingy defense and a methodical offense. They push the pace more than they used to, and they’re also not afraid to let it fly.
That has allowed Wisconsin to get some marquee wins during their 17-7 start, with one of them being the only loss the 2nd-ranked Wolverines have suffered on the year. The Badgers’ style of play has kept them in a lot of games and helped them take down some big teams, but it’s also led to some nasty blowout defeats at the hands of BYU and Nebraska.
Still, the Badgers could easily be 19-5 right now. They arguably got hosed in a tight loss to Indiana on the road, while they lost to USC by two back in late January. They are just 3-2 over their last five outings, but they could just as easily be riding a 10-game winning streak at the moment.
The good news is their offensive play has been really good for that entire stretch. Where they miss the mark is at the defensive end, but getting this game at home (where they’re 12-2) could provide a much-needed boost.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
These Big 10 rivals have faced each other 144 times throughout their history. Wisconsin has had the upper hand, holding an 81-63 all-time series edge.
Things have been tilted toward the Spartans more recently, however. Michigan State is 20-12 over the last 32 meetings, while Wisconsin has gone 6-4 over the last 10 games.
Wisconsin edged out Michigan State in a 77-74 thriller last March, and they are 3-1 in this series over the last four matchups. The home team is just 2-2 over the last four meetings, while five of the last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Spartans have a solid enough offense, as they put up almost 80 points per game (79.1). That ranks just 91st in the country, of course, so they won’t be confused with an elite offense anytime soon.
That said, Michigan State can still hang with anyone, as point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. paces the entire country in assists per game (9.1), which plays a huge hand in the Spartans’ ranking 7th in the country in assists per game as well.
Michigan State does not stand out anywhere else offensively, but they find the right shot and convert at a solid rate. Fears also leads the team in scoring (15.1 ppg) and more often than not makes the right call, whether he’s breaking down the defense as a scorer or setting up his teammates.
Forwards Jaxon Kohler (12.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg) and Coen Carr (11.4 ppg) rank second on the team in scoring, while center Carson Cooper (10 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.04 bpg) is a strong two-way presence for the team.
The Badgers are, without a doubt, the flashier and more productive offensive team between these two. Wisconsin averages 83.3 points per game (34th) and is a high-volume perimeter offense, ranking in the top 10 in three-pointers attempted and made.
Wisconsin lives and dies by the three, as this team is not the free-throw merchant program it once was. They are still a team that shares the rock at a decent level (55th in assists per game) and can score inside (70th in two-point percentage) when needed.
However, Wisconsin pushes the pace and lets it fly, meaning they are a rough shooting night away from a blowout loss any time out. That also allows them to compete against bigger teams, and they can torch even the best of defenses, however.
Despite a faster pace and their outside game, Wisconsin is extremely careful with the ball. The Badgers rank 14th with just 9.4 turnovers per game, while guards Nicholas Boyd (20.2 ppg) and John Blackwell (18.7) are the driving force for this offense overall.
Michigan State is undeniably the better defensive team. They play slower and are more patient with their offense, but they allow just 65.6 points per game (16th). The Spartans are tops in rebounding in the country and only allow a 30% three-point shooting percentage (40th) on the year.
Wisconsin allows 75.8 points per game, but their faster pace and offensive style can play into that a bit. They’re still absolutely the worst team defensively, as they rank 205th in scoring and are not even close to as good at rebounding or scoring inside as the Spartans are.
Wisconsin is the faster-paced team with 72.4 possessions per game (97th). Michigan State averages just 69.3 possessions per game (260th).
- Badgers perimeter offense vs. Spartans perimeter defense: Wisconsin can shoot the lights out from just about every position on the floor. They will let it fly early and often, so Michigan State needs to close out as well as ever. The Spartans do allow 26.1 threes per game (313th), but they will want to try to limit Wisconsin’s attempts in this matchup.
- Michigan State’s interior offense vs. Wisconsin’s interior defense: This one should go to the Spartans. Wisconsin doesn’t have anyone to keep Fears from winding and weaving through traffic, while Michigan State has a vastly superior collection of imposing bigs. They should live in the paint in this matchup.
- Spartans perimeter offense vs. Badgers perimeter defense: This is pretty important in the event that Wisconsin builds a lead and/or is hot from long range. Outside shooting is not a strength for Michigan State, but in a game where the Badgers will want to push the pace and launch from long range, the Spartans may need to perform above expectations from deep.
Michigan State is just 11-11-2 against the spread this year. The Spartans are 10-9-1 ATS when favored, 2-3-1 ATS on the road, and 7-5-1 inside the conference.
Wisconsin has been a bit better (13-11) against the spread. The Badgers are 3-3 ATS as the underdog, 7-7 ATS at home, and 8-5 ATS in Big 10 play.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Michigan State vs. Wisconsin betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Michigan State | -1.5 (-112) | -160 | Over 146.5 (-115) |
Wisconsin | +1.5 (-108) | +132 | Under 146.5 (-105) |
This is a very tight spread. It opened at -1.5 in favor of the Spartans, but it’s still very close. The odds make sense, as Michigan State is way better defensively but on the road, and Wisconsin is superior offensively and at home.
From a Bettor’s Lens
You’re getting value with everything you see here; you just need to pick the right side. The Spartans have been the better team and have checked some key boxes, while the Badgers are at home and could shoot the Spartans out of the building.
Considering how tight the spread is, I wouldn’t mess with it. You’re betting on the moneyline here.
The game total feels a bit trappy. On one hand, the Badgers should push the pace, and the teams combine to average over 160 points per game. On the other hand, Michigan State will try to slow this thing down. Something in the middle is to be expected, making the over/under a bet I’m not psyched to target.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Wisconsin Badgers ML (+132) | Wisconsin is at home, and they have a clear matchup edge on the outside. If they can hit their outside shots and push the pace, they can lean on their home crowd to get them over the hump and land a marquee Big 10 win. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Jaxon Kohler Over 12+ Points (-105) | The Badgers can win, but they still won’t dominate inside. Kohler averages 12.8 points per game and is looking at an easy matchup in the paint in this one. | 7/10 |
Odd lines are tightening for Michigan State vs Wisconsin as bettors weigh elite Spartan defense against the Badgers’ perimeter shooting. Compare updated betting odds at our trusted sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers 76, Michigan State Spartans 73
My main Michigan State vs. Wisconsin prediction is that the Badgers defend their home court and get a big win. The Spartans are absolutely scary defensively, but their defense really hasn’t been great over their last five games.
Wisconsin has been very tough to beat on their home floor, while Michigan State’s defense is built to dominate the glass and fight off inside scoring. The Badgers love that, as they will just run and let it fly from deep.
The Badgers still need to connect on those shots, but if they do, they are a mismatch for the Spartans. Michigan State’s defense and interior advantage should still allow them to keep it close, but I lean toward the hotter shooting Badgers at home.
