Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers CBB Prediction (February 26th, 2026)
Get ready for an intense Big 10 clash on Thursday night, as the Michigan State Spartans hope to take down the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue enters as 7.5-point home favorites, per DraftKings, but they will have a tough task in fending off Tom Izzo’s feisty crew.
Michigan State comes into this showdown ranked 13th in the nation, and a win here would likely vault them inside the top-10. In addition, a Spartans win would move them to a tie for second place inside the Big 10.
Purdue has their sights on a conference title, but they need a win here to ensure that can happen. The Boilermakers are favored thanks to a stout 22-5 record and an 8th overall ranking, but they’ve been fairly mediocre with a 6-4 run over their last 10 games.
So, who you got? I’ll help you make the call as I analyze the odds and point you to the best bets. If you simply want a Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers prediction, I’ll let you know who I think wins this one at the end.
Game Details
- Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (22-5) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (22-5)
- Date & Time: Thursday, February 26th, at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on Peacock
Early Season Performance & Trends
Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans are still coached by the legendary Tom Izzo, and per usual, they look like a really tough out. They have struggled on the road, but they have been lights out at home and are a rock-solid 22-5 on the year.
Michigan State enters as the 13th-ranked team in the country, with their sights set on cracking the top-10 to improve their March Madness seeding. In addition, the Spartans can pull into a three-way tie for second place in the Big 10 with a huge road win on Thursday night.
The Spartans are in good form, having won their last two games, as well as three of their last four. Most of their losses are pretty understandable, and there’s nothing to suggest they can’t come into Indiana and give Purdue a fight.
Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilermakers continue to be led by Matt Painter on the sidelines, and much like Izzo, he’s an institution. He’s had Purdue playing fantastic basketball in recent years, and this season they are once again a formidable foe.
Purdue comes into this matchup ranked 8th in the country, and much like the Spartans, they can move into a three-way tie for second place inside the Big 10 conference with a win.
The Boilermakers won their last game over Indiana very easily, while a very good Michigan team is responsible for their lone defeat in their last six games. Purdue owns a stellar 12-3 record on their home floor and will look to stave off a pesky Spartans squad tonight.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
Michigan State and Purdue have battled each other quite a bit, as they’ve been Big 10 rivals for some time. In all, they’ve faced off 131 times, with the Spartans holding a 74-57 all-time series lead.
The Spartans won the most recent meeting last February, icing out Purdue in a 75-66 slugfest. Purdue has dominated the series lately, however, as they’ve gone 8-2 over the last 10 meetings.
Purdue has also won each of the last seven matchups in this series on their home floor in West Lafayette.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Lead guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is the driving force for Michigan State’s offense, as he’s their best scoring threat (14.9 ppg) and also offers elite playmaking ability (9.2 assists per game).
Fears is not alone on offense, as the Spartans get a lot of production out of their big men. Center Cars Cooper averages 10 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, while forwards Jaxon Kohler and Coen Carr both chip in over 11 points per contest.
The Spartans are not overly imposing on offense, but they do put up 78.4 points per game, rebound extremely well, and share the ball at an elite level (7th in assists). Michigan State is also very good at converting at the free-throw line and can do serious damage inside with their bigs.
The Boilermakers have a very balanced offense with four players chipping in 10+ points per game. Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer, and Braden Smith are their most explosive trio, with Smith also chipping in 8.7 assists per game.
Purdue is the more dangerous offensive team, as they rank 36th in the country with 82.9 points per game. They have a better collection of scorers and have a more diverse offensive attack, as they are lights out from deep (18th) and are one of the most efficient offenses in all of basketball.
Purdue is impossibly even better than the Spartans when it comes to moving the ball and sharing the wealth, as they enter this matchup ranked #1 in assists per game.
Both of these teams are nasty on defense. Michigan State slows things down with their pace, and they allow just 66.1 points per game (17th).
As noted, the Spartans clean the glass extremely well, while they do a solid job of closing out and making opposing offenses work for points, both inside and out.
Purdue isn’t much worse defensively, allowing just 69.3 points per game (53rd). They are not nearly as good on the glass, while they don’t do a good job against the long ball. They do, however, limit opponents’ trips to the free throw line at a staggering rate (4th fewest).
In terms of pace, neither of these teams play particularly fast. Purdue ranks just 166th in pace with 71 possessions per game. Michigan State is ever slower (69), as they rank 267th in the country.
- Purdue’s perimeter offense vs. Michigan State’s perimeter defense: The Boilermakers rely on the long ball a bit, but this is a really bad matchup for their perimeter offense. If Michigan State’s defense shows up, scoring could be an issue for Purdue.
- Rebounding & Free Throw Battle: Michigan State is clearly the much better rebounding team, and they also shoot better from the free-throw line. If they actually get to the line and win the battle of the boards, Purdue could be in trouble.
The Spartans have not been great (12-13) against the spread this year. They’re 2-4-1 ATS on the road and 1-2-1 ATS as the underdog. However, they are 8-7-1 ATS within the Big 10 and 3-2-1 against the spread versus ranked opponents.
Purdue hasn’t been much better (13-14) against the spread. The Boilermakers are just 5-9 ATS as the home favorite, 11-13 ATS when favored in general, and 7-9 ATS inside the Big 10.
The Under has hit in 60% of Michigan State games this year. The Under has also delivered in 51% of Purdue games on the season.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Michigan State vs. Purdue betting odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Michigan State | +7.5 (-105) | +280 | Over 142.5 (-110) |
Purdue | -7.5 (-115) | -355 | Under 142.5 (-110) |
Purdue opened as 5.5-point home favorites, and that line has moved to 7.5. The game total has also spiked from 139.5 to 142.5.
This is a pretty big spread considering these teams have identical records and have a lot to play for. The game total is also slightly high considering the pace of play and Michigan State’s defense.
From a Bettor’s Lens
I’m hammering the Spartans pretty hard here. Michigan State might not necessarily be the better team, and they’re just 4-3 on the road, but the stakes are high, and they offer clear value.
Michigan State’s ML is extremely appealing, and something I’d be interested in targeting given the setting, but their spread is where it’s at. Neither team has been reliable ATS this year, and the Spartans have the defense to keep this tighter than the line suggests.
I’d also be targeting the Under here. Michigan State plays a very slow brand of basketball, and Purdue isn’t exactly fast. Considering what’s on the line and how the Spartans play, the Under stands out as a strong bet.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Michigan State ATS +7.5 (-105) | The Spartans have the edge defensively, on the glass, and at the free-throw line. If star guard Jeremy Fears shows up, they’re a great bet to keep this thing close. | 7/10 |
Under 142.5 (-110) | Michigan State’s defense and pace could slow this thing way down. Considering how much the Under has hit for them, I don’t like going over this game total. | 7/10 |
As betting lines tighten for Spartans vs Boilermakers, bettors are eyeing the +7.5 spread and Under value. Compare line movement at our trusted sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Michigan State Spartans 70, Purdue Boilermakers 67
You can certainly make a case that Purdue is the better team, and because they’re at home, they can win. I don’t disagree, as the Boilermakers have been good on their home floor and they offer the more exciting offense. They’re also not bad defensively at all.
That’s why Purdue is favored by 7.5 points. But this spread still feels a bit egregious when you start looking at how many important areas Michigan State has an upper hand in.
I think this one starts and ends with how much success Jeremy Fears Jr. can enjoy, but no matter what you’re Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction is, I think the Spartans can avoid getting slapped around.
There is just too much to like about how they play, and they are equipped to stifle Purdue in what they excel at. I’m not ready to go all-in on a Spartans ML bet, but the spread is too big, and the total is too high. I’m hammering Michigan State ATS and the Under.
