Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction (February 28th, 2026)
The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors face off for a big NBA clash with playoff implications on Saturday. It’s not going to be as fun as it could have been, as star guard Steph Curry is expected to miss a 10th straight game due to a knee injury.
Even without Curry on deck, the Warriors aren’t huge underdogs. Perhaps playing at home is a big reason why, but DraftKings has them coming in as mild 4.5-point underdogs.
Luka Doncic and the Lake Show will come to town with a -180 moneyline, and considering their star power and what’s at stake, they stand out as a solid bet. All has not been right in L.A., of course, as the Lakers are not in great form at the moment.
Is now a good time to bet against the Lakers? Or are they obvious values against a Golden State team missing their two best players? Let’s find out as I break this matchup down, point to the game’s best bets, and wrap things up with a final Lakers vs. Warriors prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Los Angeles Lakers (34-24) vs. Golden State Warriors (31-28)
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 28th, at 7:30 pm (8:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
- How to Watch: ABC
Early Season Performance & Trends
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have run hot and cold all year. Whether it’s been injuries, chemistry, rotations – whatever the case – this team has at no point fully clicked.
It remains to be seen if that will ever happen, or if it will take the departure of LeBron James for the Lake Show to take the next step. For now, this is still a very talented team that can explode on any given night, but they are not in great form.
Los Angeles has been in their last two games that went down to the wire, but they’ve still lost three in a row and are just 5-5 over their last three contests. L.A. resides in 6th place in the Western Conference and needs to snap this losing streak to prevent sliding further down the standings.
L.A. can still get as high as the fourth seed if they can flip the switch, and the odds suggest they can do that for at least tonight.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are a shell of the team they thought they’d be. They are clinging for dear life to the 8th seed in the Western Conference, but it’s not guaranteed they’ll still be there by this same time next week.
Injuries have derailed a once-promising season, as Jimmy Butler is lost for the year, and the Dubs failed to make any marquee moves to boost their title chances. They always have a shot as long as star guard Steph Curry is around, but even he has been missing time with a nagging knee injury.
Curry can still move the needle even at 37, but when both he and Butler are away from the floor, this team can understandably struggle. That’s been the picture lately, as the Dubs won their last game, but are just 4-6 over their last 10 contests.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Lakers and Warriors have an extremely rich history, as they have faced each other a mind-boggling 444 times. This will be lucky number 445 in a series the Lake Show has dominated to the tune of a 266-178 record.
The series have been more competitive of late, as the two sides have split the season series to this point (1-1), while they’ve split their last four meetings overall. The Lakers won the most recent game in a 105-99 defensive battle on February 7th, and they’ll be favored to do so once again.
This game is pretty big for both teams’ spots in the Western Conference standings. The winner will have the leg up in the season series, which could give them a boost in the event they finish the season with the same record.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Lakers have had all three of their top players miss time for different stretches this year.
That has unearthed a stud in Austin Reaves, while showcasing the greatness of Luka Doncic and LeBron James in different moments. The problem is that this trio hasn’t shared a ton of time on the court this year. When they have, the numbers suggest King James might be the problem.
Even with that reality staring the Lakers in the face, Doncic remains the driving force with 32.7 points per game. When he’s clicking, the Lakers are an offensive team that can attack inside, finish at the free throw line, and dominate with efficiency.
The Lake Show loses their luster out on the perimeter, while their three best players tend to be isolation scorers who need the ball in their hands to be effective. It’s not a perfect set up, but it’s one that is more than good enough to get a win against the Warriors.
The Dubs are not close to who they can be when they are at full strength. Curry is the main reason this team is relevant, and even at almost 38 years old, he can still spin defenders in circles en route to 27.2 points per game.
Curry is a huge reason Golden State ranks #1 in three-pointers both made and attempted, while the Warriors also rank 10th in three-point shooting. Those numbers aren’t as reliable without the franchise player on the hardwood, but the Dubs do still have a plethora of perimeter threats that can execute in Steve Kerr’s system.
The Warriors will largely turn to Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Gui Santos, while they could get a helping hand from aging bigs like Draymond Green and Al Horford as well.
This is still an offense that can be dangerous, but it’s not at full strength.
The Lakers are a slower offense that executes on efficiency and Luka’s greatness. They rank 21st in pace and rank 19th on the break.
Golden State plays faster (15th), but still aren’t a speedy team in terms of pace. Curry not being around can also hurt their pace depending on the matchup.
Defensively, the Lakers aren’t a team to be feared. They do a solid job locating their guys in transition, and they limit trips to the charity stripe, but they rank 19th in scoring and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Golden State lost their ace in the hole in Jimmy Butler, but they still grade out as a solid defensive team. They rank 11th in efficiency and 11th in scoring, while they defend the long ball well and limit free-throw attempts.
- Warriors perimeter offense vs. Lakers perimeter defense: The Warriors aren’t the lights-out unit they can be with Curry in tow, but they should still have success from deep against L.A.’s 21st-ranked perimeter defense.
- Luka’s Penetration: Doncic seems to be able to get to whatever spot he wants to, no matter the matchup. Golden State’s age is starting to show on the defensive side, as their interior defense (15th) is very middle of the pack. That may not be good enough against Luka or even LeBron.
The Lakers are pretty “meh” against the spread, going 30-28 on the year. They are 22-13 ATS as the favorite, however, while they have gone 16-14 ATS on the road.
Golden State isn’t as good (27-32) against the spread. The Warriors have gone 8-10 ATS as the underdog and 2-4 ATS as the home underdog. They’re also just 17-21 ATS inside their conference.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Lakers vs. Warriors odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Lakers | -4.5 (-110) | -180 | Over 228.5 (-110) |
Warriors | +4.5 (-110) | +150 | Under 228.5 (-110) |
The Lakers enter this game as mild road favorites. This line is tricky since they’re not in great form and on the road, but it’s appropriate.
The game total feels trappy, as it’s right in that “how do I bet this” sweet spot. L.A.’s slower pace and Golden State’s solid defense play into where it’s at.
From a Bettor’s Lens
I don’t hate the Warriors ATS spread here, but that’s only if you feel good about their chances of winning. I don’t, so I am inclined to just hammer the Lakers at their -155 moneyline.
If you’re like me and dig the Lake Show here, betting on their spread is a massive waste of time and completely unnecessary risk.
The game total is a little gross just because there are so many different things combining to make it complicated. L.A. being on the road, Golden State not being healthy, the Lakers’ slow pace, etc – it all makes this bet feel very avoidable. If I had to target it, though, I’d bet the Under.
Situational Considerations
Steph Curry remains out for the Warriors. He is scheduled to get checked out before this game, but that does not figure to allow him to return to the floor in time to play the Lakers.
Kristaps Porzingis has been missing time with an illness. It’s unclear if he is healthy enough to return, although he may be limited even if he can play. The Dubs could also be without guard De’Anthony Melton, who is listed as day-to-day.
For the Lakers, Rui Hachimura is in doubt after missing Thursday’s game against the Suns. He’s been dealing with an illness and could once again be questionable ahead of Saturday’s game.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Lakers ML (-180) | The Lakers are far healthier right now and need to win to hold onto their seeding. Even on the road, they should be able to handle a depleted Warriors squad. | 8/10 |
Under 228.5 (-110) | Golden State is at home and can still defend, while the Lakers play a slow brand of basketball. A lower-scoring game can be expected. | 6/10 |
As betting lines shift for Lakers vs. Warriors, sharp money is eyeing the Under 228.5 and Lakers ML value. Track betting lines movement at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers 109, Golden State Warriors 107
If you’re looking for a straight-up Lakers vs. Warriors prediction, it’s that L.A. should get the win on the road. They are the better team at the moment, and they’re simply much healthier.
L.A. does not need to be an elite squad to beat this rendition of the Warriors, while Luka exploding could be enough on its own to help the Lakers snap this three-game skid.
I would not mess with the point spread here, though. The Lakers offer nice value at their -180 price, and they’ve been in two really close games lately. I anticipate another close game that leans toward lower scoring, but Los Angeles should be able to pull it out.
