Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies Prediction (February 20th, 2026)
Are we all crazy for betting on the Utah Jazz these days? Maybe. But there are only so many things to bet on this Friday night, and I do see value in their matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.
Here’s to hoping the fines commissioner, Adam Silver, has imposed will set things straight. Or we just need to be selective as far as what we bet. Either way, the Grizzlies will be 3.5-point home favorites, per DraftKings, and this game has a wild 240.5 total.
There’s going to be value littered throughout this game, while we can also target some Jazz vs. Grizzlies prop bets. But which bets are the safest and will actually deliver? I’ll help you figure that out as I work through the pricing, key matchup angles, and close out with a Jazz vs. Grizzlies prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Utah Jazz (18-38) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (20-33)
- Date & Time: Friday, February 20th, at 6:00 pm (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: FedExForum in Memphis, TN
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, Jazz+, KJZZ-TV, and NBA League Pass
Early Season Performance & Trends
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are an abomination. They would honestly be a lot of fun and pretty good if the franchise decided to care about winning. Unfortunately, they do not.
That has led to a brutal 18-38 record. The team still plays fast and can be dazzling on offense, but they are erratic overall and truly abhorrent on defense.
Utah made us think they would be good for a second thanks to a 2-1 start, while they beat Boston and fought hard against Portland and other teams early in the year. Sadly, they started talking so hard that Adam Silver had to threaten to fine them.
The Jazz have been worse at tanking lately, going 3-3 over their last six games. But that little blip on the radar shouldn’t get us to trust them anytime soon.
Memphis Grizzlies
Unlike the Jazz, Memphis didn’t really want to go into full tank mode. Injuries kind of made that decision for them, but they are knee-deep in a full-blown rebuild, regardless of the why or how.
The Grizzlies can earn a shot at the #1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, but they will just rest key players in an effort to give themselves a shot at getting there. They won’t go to egregious measures to throw games, though.
Memphis is a bit more trustworthy than Utah, and they’re also less bad. They are actually quite strong defensively when they’re healthy, while newcomer Ty Jerome and youngster Cedric Coward give them nice pieces to build with.
While more palatable than Utah from an ethics perspective, Memphis isn’t as good on offense, and they still don’t care to win games. That makes them a tough team to back in most cases, save for maybe Friday night.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Jazz and Grizzlies have faced off just 111 times in NBA history during the regular season. Utah has had the upper hand, going 68-43 in those meetings.
They met twice already this year, splitting the series (1-1). Memphis won a 137-128 shootout in the most recent game, while Utah won 130-126 on December 12th.
The Grizzlies won the previous five games and are 6-1 over the last seven meetings.
Key Matchup Breakdown
It’s tough to gauge this iteration of Utah’s offense. They could be missing key starters, but when at full strength, they get high-quality scoring out of Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen.
The Jazz have done a fine job scoring the ball lately and all year. They come in with the league’s 6th-best scoring offense, which is absolutely insane given the way they handle games. The approach and talent is there to make defenses squirm, however.
Utah is also good at getting inside the paint and finishing (6th), while they share the ball (2nd) with the best of them and are also solid (14th) in transition. Just imagine if they actually tried to use this offense to win games!
The Grizzlies play fast like Utah, and they have a lot of bodies they can turn to. They will be without key performers like Jaren Jackson Jr. (traded) and Ja Morant, but the aforementioned Coward (13.3 ppg) and Jerome (19.6 ppg) still give them a nice duo to lean on.
Memphis only ranks 17th in scoring, but they share the ball (6th), rebound well (10th), and are solid in transition and inside the paint. The Grizzlies can also shoot it from deep at a decent rate and are league average at getting to the free-throw line.
The Grizzlies run a balanced offense that is fundamentally strong, but coming into this matchup, their talent is severely depleted compared to where it was at the start of the year.
Both of these teams play fast and are weak defensively. The Jazz are 7th in pace, while Memphis ranks 4th.
Utah ranks dead last in points allowed per game with 125.9. The Jazz are getting cooked in transition (29th) and get destroyed from behind the arc. Their interior defense can be respectable when at full strength, but even then, it’s far from elite.
The Grizzlies are much better defensively when they have star center Zach Edey in tow. When he’s out, though, they decline considerably. They rank 22nd in scoring, but are good in transition and can be tough down low when they’re at full strength.
- Memphis perimeter offense vs. Utah perimeter defense: The Grizzlies aren’t obnoxious with how much they shoot the long ball, but they get the best matchup possible. Utah allows more three-point attempts and makes than anyone in the NBA.
- Free Throw Battle: Utah is very good at getting to the free-throw line. They rank 5th in free throw attempts and makes, and shoot 79.9% (8th). Memphis is solid at preventing free passes to the charity stripe, however.
Utah has been better than expected against the spread (31-25) this year. They’re 13-11 ATS as the road underdog, while they are 18-17 ATS inside the conference, 26-23 ATS as an underdog in general, and 15-12 ATS on the road.
Memphis has gone 24-29 against the spread. They are 20-17 ATS in the Western Conference, 10-15 ATS at home, and 9-8 ATS when favored.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Jazz | +3.5 (-112) | +136 | Over 240.5 (-110) |
Grizzlies | -3.5 (-108) | -162 | Under 240.5 (-110) |
This is a tough game to gauge due to tanking motivations. Both teams are very bad and probably don’t want to win this game. That makes the spread and moneyline tricky, but the prices are plenty appropriate.
Utah has displayed more of a hunger for blatant tanking, and they’re on the road, so Memphis being favored is logical.
The game total is very high, but warranted. Both teams are top-10 in pace and bad on defense, while the two meetings this year have been explosive shootouts.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The spread is thick enough to have interest in Utah. Even without knowing for sure who is playing for them, they have enough talent to “accidentally” win this game. They’re also ahead of Memphis in the “tank wars”, so a close game or even a win isn’t out of the question.
That logic has me liking Utah to beat the spread, but to hedge a bit with Memphis when it comes to the moneyline.
The best Jazz vs. Grizzlies pick is the Over. These teams still play fast and don’t defend, so we should get a lot of points. I’d also be looking to target some Unders for the top Jazz stars, and target Overs for lesser-known players in this game.
Situational Considerations
Keyonte George is in doubt for this game, as he missed time before the break with an ankle injury. Considering Utah isn’t seeking wins at the moment, don’t be shocked if he doesn’t play.
Lauri Markkanen and Jusuf Nurkic are two veterans to monitor for the Jazz. They are healthy, but are frequent rest candidates due to Utah’s tanking.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been ruled out for the rest of the season, while center Oscar Tshiebwe is in doubt as he’s been dealing with concussion symptoms.
For Memphis, we know Ja Morant won’t suit up. He’s been dealing with elbow discomfort and will miss at least the next two weeks.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger surgery) is unlikely to hit the floor, while Cedric Coward missed the All-Star festivities and will come into Thursday as questionable. Santi Aldama and Walter Clayton Jr. are also still on the injury report and are not guaranteed to play.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 240.5 (-110) | Both teams are top-10 in pace, strong offensively, and terrible defensively. Brace for a fast-paced and high-scoring contest. | 7/10 |
Grizzlies ML (-162) | Neither team really wants to win that badly, but Utah wants to lose more, and Memphis is at home. | 6/10 |
Jazz ATS +3.5 (-112) | The Jazz will try to lose, but they still put on a show and can put up points. Don’t be shocked if they keep it close, while an upset (even by accident) is always possible. | 6/10 |
As betting lines shift for Jazz vs. Grizzlies, bettors are targeting the spread, total, and player props in a fast-paced matchup. Compare updated lines at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies 127, Utah Jazz 124
This game is a tough one to bet on in terms of comfortability, but there is still value to be had. If we could remove the tanking talk, then the Jazz vs. Grizzlies picks above would all be higher confidence levels and complete smashes.
Still, the nice thing is we are dealing with an even playing field. Both of these teams are missing star players, neither really want to win, both play fast, and they both struggle on defense.
When it’s that even, the tie goes to the home team. Memphis is a little better defensively, they try a bit harder to win, and they’re at home. That makes my main Grizzlies vs. Jazz prediction a Memphis win, but the styles and pace also lead to this game likely hitting the Over.
