Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Prediction & Updated Odds (December 19, 2025)
Jake Paul finally has a legit boxing match in front of him, and he’s priced exactly as you’d expect. The Problem Child will be a massive +700 underdog when he faces off with former world champion Anthony Joshua, and short of some funky stuff like we’ve seen with some of his celebrity boxing matches, the prognosis isn’t great.
There is no denying that Jake Paul now has the experience to match his charisma, while he also has a solid 12-1 boxing record. But taking on a two-time unified boxing champion who is still in his physical prime at age 36 is the biggest test he’s taken on yet.
It’s more than a challenge; it’s a death wish. However, Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua is impossibly a thing, and it’s a boxing match you can bet on. The big question isn’t really if Paul will lose (he will), it’s if he can actually hang with a legit heavyweight boxer. Oh, and if this fight can actually return any value for willing bettors.
Need some help formulating your Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua bets? I’ll inspect the latest odds and key matchup angles to deliver my top picks and final Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua prediction.
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds over at DraftKings:
- Moneyline
- Jake Paul +700
- Anthony Joshua -1200
- Total Rounds
- Over 2.5: -140
- Under 2.5: +105
- Method of Victory
- Jake Paul by Decision: +1600
- Jake Paul by KO/TKO/DQ: +1200
- Draw: +2200
- Anthony Joshua by Decision: +450
- Anthony Joshua by KO/TKO/DQ: -400
- Fight Goes the Distance: Yes (+350) | No (-550)
What the Odds Tell Us
The Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua betting odds paint a pretty clear picture; Paul is a celebrity boxer and influencer that doesn’t belong in a fight like this. He’s a solid boxer for a regular guy, but he is a huge underdog for a reason – assuming this bout isn’t scripted.
The fight is also a poor get-to-go the distance, although the oddsmakers give Paul a shot at making it out of the first two rounds. That will be put to the test, however, as Joshua has proclaimed that he’ll knock Paul out by the second round.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Jake Paul (12-1)
Jake Paul deserves a lot of credit for getting to this point. He was simply the younger brother of YouTube sensation Logan Paul, but he’s carved out quite a career as a boxing superstar.
Love him or hate him, Paul does pack a solid punch, and he’s found a way to navigate 13 matches en route to 12 wins, with his lone defeat being a Decision loss. In that span, he has seven knockouts, and he’s taken down some big names in the MMA circuit, along with an aged Iron Mike Tyson.
Paul has a good jab, solid power, and can be explosive, but his defense is suspect, and his resume is shaky at best when compared to who he’s running into this weekend.
Anthony Joshua (28-4)
Unlike Jake Paul, Anthony Joshua is an actual professional boxer and a two-time world champion. He’s fought legit boxing talent, has way more experience, and has far more hitting power.
Joshua is also a massive man standing next to Paul, while his 25 KOs will be hanging over The Problem Child like a dark cloud. Joshua did lose his most recent fight and is exiting his prime at age 36, but he’s a rangy fighter who can pace himself, stave off big shots, and deliver explosive combos that someone like Paul simply may not be ready for.
Joshua’s impressive career includes impressive KOs over the likes of MMA star Francis Ngannou, the great Wladimir Klitschko, and two Decision losses to Oleksandr Usyk.
The end may be near for Joshua at a high level, but physical prowess, raw power, resume, and experience all favor him greatly in this showdown on Netflix.
Tale of the Tape
| Jake Paul | Anthony Joshua | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 12-1 | 28-4 |
Height | 6’1” | 6’6” |
Reach | 76” | 82” |
Style | Speed | Power |
The numbers don’t lie. Paul is at a huge disadvantage in the height and length department, while he’s arguably not actually quick enough to offset Joshua’s raw power. The one downside for Joshua is that he hasn’t fought since last September, and that he is fighting at a lower weight than he normally would.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
This is not an even matchup at all, but YOLO. Here are a few things to consider, regardless of who you’re betting on when Paul and Joshua square up:
- You Reach, I Teach: The biggest thing in this fight is the height and reach advantage Joshua has. You can see him towering over Paul in the Netflix promos for this fight, which makes it easy for him to land punches and easier to keep Paul’s power at bay.
- Work the Body: Paul is going to have to work the body (a lot) in this matchup, as clean shots to Joshua simply won’t be easy to get due to the size gap.
- Conditioning: Paul does have a slight edge in that he may be in superior physical shape. He’s been a more active fighter; he hasn’t had a recent injury like Joshua has, and he’s eight years younger.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Anthony Joshua vs. Jake Paul bets:
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Think the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight is rigged or scripted? Then bet on it lasting more than two rounds. If Netflix wants this fight to last longer than it “should”, it would make sense for this bet to hit. | 9/10 |
Anthony Joshua KO/TKO (-400) | I’m more confident that Joshua wins, assuming this fight is not of the scripted variety. The only way Paul even keeps this remotely competitive is if Joshua doesn’t take him seriously or has been paid to let him hang around. | 7/10 |
Alt Line – Over 3.5 Rounds (+110) | Most of the other Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua bets that look good are not appealing prices. Instead of burning cash, let’s double down on the idea that Netflix will want this fight to last longer than it should. | 6/10 |
Don’t miss the action as Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds continue to shift — track line movement, spot value early, and bet smarter using top boxing betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on boxing matches, especially ones with that “rigged” feeling that comes with Jake Paul bouts. Here’s why my Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua picks could fail:
- The Fight Isn’t Rigged: One big mistake anyone betting on Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua could be making? Assuming the bout is scripted. If it isn’t, Joshua’s height, reach, and power may end this thing extremely quickly.
- Joshua is Washed: Joshua is 36, coming off an injury, and got KO’d the last time he fought. Is he just done? If so, a Paul victory isn’t a complete impossibility.
The Bottom Line: We Won’t Get “Jake Paul’d”
This is an interesting career decision by Anthony Joshua. It’s also a pretty big risk for Jake Paul, as his entire boxing career has been built on this impeccable record and his seven KOs.
What are the odds that Paul finally gets a legitimate boxing match and, well, it’s actually legitimate? There may be too much at risk for that to actually be the case. However, if this thing is to be trusted, Joshua is the far better fighter in every respect, and there just isn’t much wiggle room to be had.
Joshua towers over Paul, while the power Paul does have won’t feel like much compared to the elite boxing studs Joshua has run into throughout his career. Joshua also has an absurd amount to lose by not dominating here. There is the obvious public embarrassment, but this is a guy who was fighting for the IBF title last year.
The kicker? He got KO’d in that fight, so maybe he realizes he’s cooked at age 36 and this is just a money grab. I think playing it right down the middle – betting on Joshua to win, but for the fight to last over 2.5 rounds – makes the most sense, all things considered.
Final Prediction Summary
- Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-140) — Confidence: 9/10
- Method of Victory – Anthony Joshua KO/TKO (-400) — Confidence: 7/10
- Fight Winner – Anthony Joshua (-1200) — Confidence: 9/10
