Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini Prediction – Women’s Tennis – Australian Open (Thursday, January 22nd, 2026)
The third round of the women’s 2026 Australian Open gets going on Thursday, and it has no shortage of huge names. The likes of Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, and Mirra Andreeva are all still alive, but they’re massive favorites to advance.
You can test your luck by betting against any of them, but the better approach may be to find a tightly priced matchup and pick a side. That has me interested in what could be a thriller between Iva Jovic and Jasmine Paolini, as this one comes in with very close odds.
DraftKings has Paolini listed as a light -137 betting favorite, as the 7th seed battles the 29th-seeded Jovic. These are two very good tennis players, so right away, there is sound reasoning for either side of this matchup. But which player should you back?
I’ve got you covered, as I’ll break down the odds, highlight the top bets, and work my way to a final Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini prediction.
Match Details
- Matchup: Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini
- Date & Time: Thursday, January 22, at 7:00 pm ET
- Venue: Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
- Tournament: Australian Open
- Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
- Surface: Hard court (specifically GreenSet, a cushioned acrylic)
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini odds over at DraftKings:
- Iva Jovic: +108
- Jasmine Paolini: -137
- Jovic Games Won: Over 11.5 (-175) | Under 11.5 (+125)
- Paolini Games Won: Over 12.5 (+120) | Under 12.5 (-165)
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds suggest this is a very close match. Paolini is the clear favorite as the higher seed, and she has better odds to win 13 games in this matchup. That said, there is obviously not a big gap between these two when it comes to pricing, making Jovic a compelling upset pick.
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Iva Jovic
Jovic is just starting out on the women’s professional tennis circuit, as she’s only 18 years old and has just 111 total matches under her belt. She’s done well (80-31) in them, of course, and even claimed her first tournament win at the 2025 Guadalajara Open.
She has not been able to make any deep runs at any grand slam events yet, but this trip to the third round marks her best effort so far in her young career. It remains to be seen if she can keep it going, but she’s running into a much higher seed and someone in Jasmine Paolini that has beaten her twice already.
Both matches were reasonably competitive, with Paolini pulling off straight sets (6-3, 6-3) in the second meeting, but Jovic stealing a set (2-1) in the first meeting.
Jovic obviously lacks polish and experience, but she builds a compelling game based off of athleticism, pressure, and pace. She can dominate the center of the court and control rallies, which can give her a leg up on hard courts like the Australian Open offers.
While Jovic can stir things up and create frustration in her opponents, she’s still young and prone to mistakes. In addition, her serve is not a cornerstone strength of her game just yet, while she can get coaxed into bad situations based on her lack of experience.
Jasmine Paolini
Paolini has the edge in the head-to-head matchup, but Jovic did steal a set from her in the first matchup, and in that same meeting, she pushed her to the brink in their first set as well.
That could mean we’re in for a tighter showdown than some would think, and that’s certainly what the odds would indicate. After all, Paolini is far more experienced, but could slowly be exiting her prime now at age 30.
Some might suggest Paolini may already have reached her ceiling, as he’s only won three tournament titles in her career and she’s never won a grand slam. She did reach the final at the French Open and Wimbledon – both in 2024 – while she made it to the fourth round of the Australian Open two years ago as well.
Her inability to take out Aryna Sabalenka in a couple of big tourneys last year prompted her to change tennis coaches, however. That sparked a 2025 Italian Open title, which she earned by knocking off Coco Gauff in the final.
It’s fair to wonder if that big coaching change can catapult her further in 2026. Paolini has a dynamic and aggressive playing style, while she offers exceptional quickness and instincts that allow her to dominate rallies.
Much like her opponent, Paolini’s serve is not her strong suit. She thrives on an electrifying forehand, elite movement, and the ability to return serves and pressure opponents.
Head-to-Head Record
| Iva Jovic | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 0 | 2 |
Losses | 2 | 0 |
Total Wins | 80 | 414 |
Grand Slams | 0 | 0 |
The sample size is small, but Paolini’s experience and ability to return serves and generate pressure have given her the leg up in two prior meetings with Jovic. She’s the more experienced and more accomplished tennis player, but it’s arguable that she has already peaked.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s investigate the key Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini matchup favors to decide who will win and how you need to bet:
- Serve Game: Neither player excels with their serving, but Paolini is exceptional at returns and controlling the center of the court. She also can generate pressure quickly after the serve – all of which should give her the advantage.
- Speed & Reactivity: Paolini is the quicker and more decisive athlete. This gives her a better chance to return serves and dominate rallies. She should once again dictate the pace of this matchup.
- Forehand War: Paolini broke out in 2024 due to a jump in her forehand game. If that holds true in this spot, she should be able to excel against a player who won’t generate much pressure off the serve.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini picks at the 2026 Australian Open:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Paolini to Win (-137) | Paolini showed a big jump in form two years ago and came up clutch at the Italian Open. Given her recent form, experience, and the lack of serve edge on either side, I think she extends this series to a 3-0 advantage. | 7/10 |
Set Betting – Paolini 2:1 (+275) | While I think Paolini is still the better tennis player and will win, Jovic showed enough in the previous matchups to suggest she can put up a fight. | 6/10 |
Paolini Games Won – Over 12.5 (+120) | Jovic’s inexperience puts this bet at risk, but I think she can show improvement and push Paolini a bit in their third showdown. | 6/10 |
Betting on Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini? Use our top sports betting sites to follow odds movement, compare set and games lines, and lock in strong prices ahead of the opening serve.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong in tennis betting. Here’s how my Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini bets could miss the mark:
- Upset Special: There’s always a chance Jovic makes good on her +108 odds. As noted, she is a rising young talent and she’s pushed Paolini before. After dropping the first two meetings, winning the third isn’t out of the question – especially after she battled in the first two matchups.
- Youth Movement: Paolini’s experience is a huge asset here, but Jovic is undeniably the younger and more agile performer. If her athleticism can shine through, she could flip this match on its side.
- Eggs in the Basket: I’m riding hard with Paolini here, so if she does get upset, all three of these picks will fail.
The Bottom Line: Paolini Continues Surge, Stays Perfect vs. Jovic
Jovic will have her day in the sun. She’s still just 18 and needs to learn more about the nuances of professional tennis. She can be pesky, as she didn’t make things easy on Paolini in their first two meetings, but everything in this matchup has me going toward the veteran.
Neither woman is elite with their serve, which puts an extra onus on the player that can apply pressure, respond to tough shots, escape from jams, and come out of rallies alive.
Paolini still has some work to do if she ever wants to finish the job and nail a grand slam title, but I think she’s shown enough to get us to back her against a fledgling tennis player.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Paolini -137| Confidence: 7/10
- Games Won – Paolini Over 12.5 (+120) | Confidence 6/10
- Set Betting – Paolini 2:1 +274| Confidence: 6/10
