Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones CBB Prediction (February 16th, 2026)
The Big 12 college basketball regular-season conference title is in play on Monday night, as #3 Houston and #5 Iowa State wage war. The conference championship won’t be decided when the favored Cyclones (-142 at DraftKings) play host to the Cougars, but this game could still shake up the top of the conference.
A Houston win would create further distance between the Cougars and Arizona, the top-ranked team in all of college basketball. It’d also almost certainly end Iowa State’s chances of claiming the regular-season hardware.
If the Cyclones can live up to their favored billing, however, a log jam atop the Big 12 is created. Suddenly, Houston and Arizona would both have two losses in conference play, and the Cyclones would join them as the only 10-win teams inside the Big 12.
Conference talk aside, this is a massive game for two top-10 teams trying to inch their way up the Top 25 rankings. Not sure who will win? I’ll break down the latest odds and investigate the key matchup angles en route to my final Houston vs. Iowa State prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Houston Cougars (23-2) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (22-3)
- Date & Time: Monday, February 16th, 2026, at 8:00 pm (9:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Early Season Performance & Trends
Houston Cougars
The Cougars seek a return to the NCAAB title game, as they finished as the runner-up last year following an amazing 35-5 record. They have been pretty tough to beat ever since head coach Kelvin Sampson took over back in 2014-15, as they have produced 30+ win seasons in four consecutive years.
Houston is once again in a position to win the Big 12, but they will need to down the Cyclones to keep themselves in the nice spot they’re currently in.
The Cougars have looked the part of a title contender all year. They got off to a killer 6-0 start, while a three-point loss to Tennessee was their only defeat in their first 17 contests.
Houston has been tripped up just one more time the rest of the way, as a rock-solid Texas Tech team beat them in a 90-86 thriller. The Cougars are human, but due to their elite defense, it takes a pretty special effort to knock them off.
The Cougars enter this game on fire, having won each of their last six games, with the most recent one being a demolition of Kansas State. Their defense has been locked in, as nobody has topped 70 points against them in any of their last five contests.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones have been about as good as Houston, as they are off to a 22-3 start and used a soft schedule to jump out to a 16-0 record initially.
Iowa State has slowed down a bit since then, as they got smoked by Kansas, lost to Cincinnati by nine, and couldn’t handle TCU two games ago. The Cyclones are still a strong 6-3 over their last nine games, but it’s obvious that they have struggled a bit with tougher opponents in front of them.
It’s worth noting that they rebounded in a second matchup with the Jayhawks and crushed them by 18, while they have been routinely dominating teams in their recent wins.
Iowa State enters as the favorite due to their offensive upside and gritty defense, but also because they’ve been unbeatable so far (14-0) on their home floor.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
There isn’t much history between Houston and Iowa State. These two schools have only faced 10 times overall, and they’ve split the all-time series, 5-5.
Houston joining the Big 12 heated up the rivalry and the last four games have been split down the middle. The last game went to Houston in a 68-59 thriller, while all four of the recent meetings have been pretty intense.
No showdown was more intense than an 82-75 OT game back in 2009-10, while the two played gritty defense in an ugly 57-53 affair two years ago.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Cougars are not special offensively. They have some nice pieces with Emanuel Sharp and Kingston Flemings leading the way with over 16 points scored per game. However, Milos Uzan is the only other player topping even 9.6 points per game.
Houston is very top-heavy on offense, so if Sharp and/or Flemings aren’t dialed in, their defense really needs to be playing at a top-notch level.
The Cougars average 78.3 points per game (104th) and don’t wow you in terms of efficiency or perimeter shooting. They hit from the free-throw line at a staggering 77.2% clip (25th), however, and they are the most careful offense (#1 in turnovers committed) in all of basketball.
The Cyclones are the scarier offensive team. They have the best scorer in this game with forward Milan Momcilovic (18.3 ppg) leading the way, while Joshua Jefferson (16.7) is a strong number two option that also cleans the glass (7.5 rpg) well.
Tamin Lipsey chips in 13 points and 5.3 assists per game, giving Iowa State yet another strong piece to their offensive puzzle. They lack legit depth beyond their top three players, but Killyan Toure (9.4 ppg) and Blake Buchanan (1.04 blocks per game) both chip in as needed.
Iowa State is far nastier offensively, as they push the pace more and score 84.2 points per game (24th). They share the ball extremely well (12th in assists per game) and have the 4th-ranked three-point shooting team in the country. This offense is also remarkably efficient, as they rank 12th in overall shooting at 10th in Effective FG rate.
The Cyclones are not always careful with the ball (10.8 turnovers per game), but they can get hot from outside and be extremely dominant (4th-best point differential).
Both of these teams are elite defensively. Houston ranks #1 in scoring with just 61.3 points allowed per game, while they give up the lowest shooting percentage in the nation and only allow a 31.3% conversion rate from deep.
Iowa State is not far behind, as they rank 6th in scoring defense (64.5 ppg allowed) and do a decent job at defending the three-ball. They are especially good at limiting free trips to the free throw line, as opponents only shoot 15 free throws per game (8th lowest).
Neither of these teams play fast. Iowa State ranks 200th in the country with 70.6 possessions per game. Houston is way slower (324th) with 67.5 possessions per game.
- Cyclones perimeter offense vs. Cougars perimeter defense: This may be the key to the game. Houston plays rock-solid defense on the perimeter, and the Cyclones shoot it from deep as well as anyone. If they hit, they can win. If the Cougars close out, it could be a long night.
- Turnover Battle: The Cougars simply do not make a lot of mental mistakes and are good under pressure. Iowa State is the opposite and plays faster. Houston will be challenged by an equally strong Iowa State defense that forces a ton of turnovers, however.
- Get to the Line: Houston doesn’t get to the free throw line at will – and the Cyclones are among the nation’s best at limiting trips – but the Cougars still shoot the lights out from the charity stripe. If that continues, they could have a huge edge against one of the worst free-throw shooting teams (67.2%) in the country.
Houston enters this game with an average 14-11 against the spread record. They are 8-4 ATS inside the Big 12 and 4-2 ATS on the road.
Iowa State is similar to the Cougars (14-10-1) against the spread. They are just 7-6-1 ATS as the home favorite, however, and they are 7-5 ATS within conference play.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Houston vs. Iowa State betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Houston | +2.5 (-112) | +118 | Over 134.5 (-115) |
Iowa State | -2.5 (-108) | -142 | Under 134.5 (-105) |
This game has a very tight spread due to both teams being very good and boasting elite defenses. Iowa State gets the nod as the home favorite, while the game total is very low due to two top-5 scoring defenses being in play.
From a Bettor’s Lens
There’s serious value in the spread and moneyline for this game. The total might be tricky, as the defenses are capable of keeping this one extremely low-scoring, but this matchup has found a way to hit the Over in three of the last four meetings.
The early call is to hammer Houston at plus money and to target the Over, just because we rarely get the Cougars at this price, and this total is so low.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Houston ML (+112) | The Cougars have the stingier defense and can win at the free-throw line. In a defensive battle, they have the edge as the more battle-tested program. | 7/10 |
Over 134.5 (-115) | This game will be low-scoring, but sometimes the bar isn’t high enough. There is enough offensive ability to get me interested in the Over. | 7/10 |
Odd lines are shifting for Houston vs Iowa State as bettors react to Iowa State’s 14-0 home record and Houston’s elite defense. Track line movement at our trusted sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Houston Cougars 70, Iowa State Cyclones 67
This game projects to be a dog fight, and I have no issue with that narrative. We have two well-coached teams, high stakes, and two nasty defenses. This game should be a grind-it-out defensive slugfest, and it is legitimately anyone’s game.
That said, my main Houston vs. Iowa State prediction is that the Cougars find a way to win. On top of offering insane value as a +120 underdog, they have looked like the better team, and they have a more realistic shot at the Big 12 regular-season conference title.
The Cougars are a steal at this price, while I also like the Over. The defensive aptitude in this game makes betting on the over/under tricky, but the total is so low that it won’t be hard to top.
Brace for a very hard-nosed game with precious few points. But I think Houston can pull it out with superior defense and an elite conversion rate at the charity stripe.
