Houston Rockets vs. Charlotte Hornets Prediction (February 19th, 2026)
The NBA is back on Thursday night, and there are several games worth betting on. The best one, however, may be an underrated tilt between the Houston Rockets and the Charlotte Hornets.
These two sides faced off recently, with the Hornets surprising with the upset. FanDuel once again has the Hornets as underdogs (+138) despite getting to play this one at home.
Both teams are well rested following the NBA All-Star Break, of course, so it’s difficult to see a clear edge for the Hornets beyond where the game is being played. I’ll dig into the odds and key matchup angles to see where the value lies; however, capping things off with a final Rockets vs. Hornets prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Houston Rockets (33-20) vs. Charlotte Hornets (26-29)
- Date & Time: Thursday, February 19th, at 6:00 pm (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, NBA League Pass, and Space City Home Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have had a strong season and exit the All-Star Break with a stout 33-20 record. That mark is good for 4th place in the loaded Western Conference, and they still can get the three seed, if not more.
Houston would need to heat up considerably to do that, but they are very clearly one of the best teams in the entire league right now. There is speculation about a rift within their roster, given supposed Kevin Durant burner comments, but in terms of skill and production, the Rockets are legit.
The Rockets did a solid job staying hot heading into the break, as they are 6-4 over their last 10 games. Now they’ll take on the Hornets, who are a lot better than they used to be, but still are not nearly as proven as this Houston squad.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have to prove they are legit, but they certainly are doing all they can to make believers out of NBA bettors. They’re just 26-29 on the year, but they exploded over the past month and are 9-1 over their last 10 games.
Charlotte’s recent surge includes a win over this very Rockets team, but nothing guarantees they hold down the fort at home and go up 2-0 in the season series.
The Hornets have some underrated star power and have seen rookie sharpshooter Kon Knueppel crush on a regular basis, but it’s actually been their strong defense that has left many people surprised.
Charlotte has struggled to form a competitive team for decades, but solid drafting and development may finally be working for them. Only time will tell if it’s sustainable, but a win at home over a good Rockets team would definitely be a step in the right direction.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
These two teams have only faced each other 72 times, and Houston predictably has dominated the series. The Rockets come into this meeting having won 51 of the previous matchups.
Houston didn’t win the most recent game, though. The Hornets took that one convincingly in a 109-99 win, and they have now gone 2-1 over the last three meetings.
These recent games have all been fairly low-scoring, but two of the last three still managed to top the low over/under currently attached to this contest.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Rockets only rank 20th in scoring, but they dominate inside (7th in points in the paint per game) and are lethal (6th) from long range.
The offense flows through Kevin Durant (25.8 ppg), who soaks up a lot of usage and can still shred defenses in the mid-range game and out on the perimeter. When he’s not doing the damage, the Rockets turn to center Alperen Sengun, who drops 20 points and 9.3 rebounds per night.
Don’t forget Amen Thompson, who averages a sick 17-7-5 stat line, giving Houston an A+ defender and a playmaker who can cut defenses up inside. Reed Shepard (12.6 ppg), Jabari Smith (15.2 ppg), and Tari Eason (12.1 ppg) chip in as needed for a very balanced and deep offense.
The Hornets rank 15th in scoring and 15th in assists per game, but they destroy defenses from deep and are deadly at the free-throw line. Charlotte has a myriad of willing shooters, as the Hornets shoot the 4th most threes per game, but also make the second most per game and convert at an absurd 37.3% clip (5th best).
LaMelo Ball leads a dynamic offense that can really hurt you from long range, and he’s dialed in his game in recent months to be a bit more controlled. When Ball is clicking, this offense has proven it is tough to stop, while perimeter threats like Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges all give opposing defenses fits.
Both of these teams can be tough defensively. Houston ranks 4th in scoring defense and gives up the 2nd fewest assists per game. They also rebound the ball better than anyone and do a solid job in the paint and against the fast break.
The Rockets specifically keep things tight on the outside, ranking top-10 in three-point attempts, makes, and percentage. Houston also limits trips to the free-throw line and has the 5th-best shooting defense in all of basketball. Houston is also the 5th most efficient defensive team in the NBA.
Charlotte has come a long way defensively. They now own the league’s 11th-best scoring defense, and they are also a top-5 rebounding team. They aren’t as good down low or at stopping teams in transition, but they keep you off of the charity stripe and are a serious threat in the shot-blocking department.
Both of these teams are slow-paced. Houston ranks 28th in pace of play, while the Hornets rank 21st.
- Sengun vs. Charlotte’s interior defense: The rebounding battle is key, but could be a wash. The big advantage the Rockets have is down low, where Sengun could feast in this matchup. He definitely didn’t do that in the first game, however, so he’d have to step up and deliver in this spot.
- Charlotte’s perimeter offense vs. Houston’s perimeter defense: The Hornets can shoot the lights out from long range, and they were cooking (39%) from deep against Houston last time they met. Houston’s outside defense can be very strong, so don’t be shocked if they put the clamps down this time around.
Houston is 23-20 against the spread on the year. They’re also 15-13 ATS away from home, but just 18-29 ATS as the favorite.
Charlotte has been fantastic (32-23) against the spread. They’re 25-18 ATS in non-division games, 14-12 ATS at home, and 24-16 ATS as the underdog.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Rockets vs. Hornets odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | -3.5 (-105) | -164 | Over 216.5 (-108) |
Hornets | +3.5 (-115) | +138 | Under 216.5 (-112) |
Houston enters this game as a light 3.5-point favorite. This line pays respect to the Rockets since they have the better record, but also credits the Hornets for being at home.
The game total is quite low, which plays into Houston’s strong defense, while both teams play a slower brand of basketball.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The Rockets look like a smash at -135. You’re getting really good value on either side, of course, as the Hornets are still at home and have been on fire. Given the moneyline for both teams being so inviting, we can safely ignore the spread in this game.
The total is so low that hammering the Over makes sense. Both teams are slow, and Houston defends well, but 214 total points is a very low bar.
Situational Considerations
Charlotte may not be ready to debut guard Coby White yet. He was reportedly being held out through the All-Star break, but it’s unclear if his calf injury is healed enough to let him suit up on Thursday night.
The Rockets should have forward Dorian Finney-Smith back for this one, as he sat out Houston’s last game before the break due to rest.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Rockets ML (-164) | Houston is the better team, and they defend extremely well. At full strength, they are a smash bet at this price tag. | 8/10 |
Over 216.5 (-108) | The defenses and pace normally would lead you to the Under, but the total is too low. It won’t pass by much, but the Over feels far more comfortable when you realize these teams combine for 230 points per game. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Alperen Sengun Over 8+ Rebounds (-174) | Sengun can dominate the glass. Houston ranks #1 in rebounding, and he averages 9.4 rebounds per game. The price isn’t to die for, but this feels like a lock. | 9/10 |
Rockets vs Hornets odds continue to shift with sharp money targeting the Houston moneyline and the low total. Compare updated lines at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Houston Rockets 110, Charlotte Hornets 108
The Hornets breezed past the Rockets in their only other meeting this year. I have to think Houston will be up for dishing out some sweet revenge. More than that, however, the Rockets are simply the better team, and they can’t afford to lose at the moment.
My main Rockets vs. Hornets prediction is that Houston gets the job done in this spot. You are not going to get the Rockets at -164 very often, so we need to take advantage of the fact that this game is on the road and that everyone is afraid of a hot Hornets team right now.
Houston needs to keep winning to fend off the Lakers and Timberwolves for the 4th seed, while they still have a shot at climbing up the Western Conference standings.
Secondary bets like the Over and Sengun to get 8+ rebounds also look good, but everything about this matchup screams that we should hammer the Rockets moneyline and never look back.
