Charlotte Hornets vs. Houston Rockets Prediction (February 5th, 2026)
The NBA trade deadline arrives today, which could mess with a few teams. One game on the docket that probably will go unscathed has the Charlotte Hornets facing off with the Rockets in Houston.
Anyone not fully paying attention may overlook the Hornets, while people watching them daily might overvalue them in this spot. It’s a pretty fine line to toe, especially with the Hornets coming in as mild 3.5-point road underdogs.
Houston is undeniably the stronger team, and they’re at home, but we need to look at this both ways. On one hand, Charlotte is pretty talented and in excellent form, and on the other, they are on the road against a superior squad.
Not sure which Hornets vs. Rockets picks to target? I’ll walk you through the madness, dissecting the latest odds and key matchup angles en route to a final Hornets vs. Rockets prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Charlotte Hornets (23-28) vs. Houston Rockets (31-18)
- Date & Time: Thursday, February 5th, at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Toyota Center in Houston, TX
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, NBA League Pass, and Space City Home Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are supposed to be competing for a lottery ticket. Instead, something appears to have clicked for Charlotte. They have drafted extremely well and pieced together a talented and deep team that seems to be slowly evolving into a legit winner.
Only time will tell if it sticks, but the Hornets are inching toward .500 ball and have a chance at pushing for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. LaMelo Ball has not always been the model of consistency, but his flashy play and steady production for the young core around him has turned the Hornets into a pretty tough out.
Charlotte still isn’t a reliable team on the road (12-15), but they are red hot with seven straight wins behind them. With a spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament in front of them, the Hornets are suddenly a motivated bunch that needs to be taken seriously.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets need to be taken even more seriously than Charlotte. They have proven it for longer and have much more reliable star power. Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, and Amen Thompson form a nasty trio that can hurt you inside and out on offense.
Houston is even tougher on the defensive end, producing a balanced approach that makes life tough on the opposition. It’s led to a strong 31-18 mark and has Houston settling in as the 4th-best team in a loaded Western Conference.
The Rockets also have a lot to play for, as they are just three games out of second place in their conference and are still within striking distance of their division title. Houston has been elite (17-5) on their home floor, and they’ve been in solid form with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Hornets and Rockets don’t play in the same conference, but it’s still mildly surprising they have only faced off 71 times in league history. Houston understandably leads the all-time series 51-20, and have won four of the last five meetings.
Thursday’s date will be the first clash between these two teams for the 2025-26 campaign, but they split the season series last year. Houston won the most recent game by 13, while the Hornets won by five the last time they were in Houston.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Charlotte has a very balanced offense full of perimeter threats. LaMelo Ball is a flashy and erratic producer, but when he’s on point, he is a tough assignment, carving through the defense, setting up his teammates, and dominating from long range.
Ball’s sometimes volatile play is balanced out by steady production from Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller, while rookie Kon Knueppel has been nothing short of amazing in his first season on the job.
Everyone mentioned averages at least 18 points per game, while the Hornets rank top-6 in three-point attempts, makes, and percentage. They can be a lethal force from long range, but they can lose their luster when trying to score inside or get to the free-throw line.
Houston’s offensive revolves around Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, and Amen Thompson. Durant and Sengun can stretch their offense outside, while KD can kill defenses in the mid-range, and Sengun can eat down low.
Thompson lacks polish as a shooter from long range, but sets the offense up beautifully and can destroy defenses in the paint. He also adds two-way value as one of the better on-ball defenders in the entire league.
Collectively, Houston only ranks 17th in scoring, but they crush inside (6th in points in the paint), are top-10 in three-point percentage, and 11th in overall shooting percentage.
Houston gets a spark off the bench from Reed Sheppard at times, but outside of these four players, can often struggle offensively.
Both of these teams like to play at a slower pace. The Hornets rank just 23rd in pace, while the Rockets rank 27th. Naturally, Charlotte is 25th in transition scoring, and the Rockets are 22nd.
Defensively, Charlotte has improved greatly. They now rank 11th in defensive scoring and do an excellent job at limiting opponent’s trips to the free throw line (#1). Charlotte has solid interior defense as well, and have worked their way to 18th in defensive efficiency.
Houston is the better defensive team, as they rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 4th in defensive scoring. Sengun plays a key role in them dominating the glass, while the Rockets are 11th against the fastbreak, 11th inside, and 6th against the long ball.
- Charlotte’s perimeter offense vs. Houston’s perimeter defense: This is the key to the game. Houston defends the perimeter very well, allowing the 5th fewest long ball attempts in the NBA. Charlotte has a plethora of outside shooters and rely on deep shots, so something has to break here.
- Sengun and Amen vs. Charlotte’s interior defense: Charlotte has two solid interior defenders and are playing strong team defense, so inside scoring may not be super easy for Sengun and Thompson.
- Free Throw Battle: Houston doesn’t overly rely on getting to the charity stripe, but they may have their work cut out for them in this one. The Hornets allow the fewest free throw attempts and makes, so Houston may need to be extra efficient on offense in this one.
Charlotte is red hot with seven straight wins, but they are not great on the road. They’re very good against the spread (30-21) on the year, though, and they’re also 13-8 ATS as a road dog.
The Hornets are also 24-17 ATS outside of their division, but weirdly just 3-8 ATS with a rest advantage.
Houston is borderline unbeatable on their home floor. They did play last night and are just 8-14 against the spread at home. Houston is also 4-4 against the spread when they don’t have the rest advantage, while they are just 18-26 ATS when favored.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Hornets vs. Rockets betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Hornets | +4.5 (-112) | +146 | Over 216.5 (-110) |
Rockets | -4.5 (-108) | -174 | Under 216.5 (-110) |
The Hornets are mild underdogs on the road, which pays respect to their hot streak, as well as gives a nod to Houston playing last night.
The game total is very low, which has everything to do with both teams playing slow and being very competent defensively.
From a Bettor’s Lens
Houston could be tired after playing last night, but assuming they have all of their top bodies, they are a smash at -162. They’re at home, and they’re still the far more trustworthy team.
The point spread is something I’d avoid. If you like Charlotte to win, just target the plus money. And if you like the Rockets, the -162 is inviting enough to not get me to play around with a 3.5-point spread.
The game total is also attackable with the Over. These are still NBA teams with capable offenses, plus Charlotte’s outside shooting could dictate how this game goes. The over/under being this low makes the Over easier to get to.
Situational Considerations
Tidjane Salaun is listed as questionable on Charlotte’s injury report. If he’s out, the Hornets would be missing some interior depth, but it wouldn’t have a drastic impact on the game.
Houston has not submitted their injury report at the time of this writing. They did play last night against Boston, so it’s possible they rest a veteran player, although early odds don’t suggest that will happen.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Rockets ML (-174) | Houston is the better team, and they are very good at home. They also have a stronger defense and a more reliable core on offense. | 8/10 |
Over 216.5 (-110) | Both defenses can ball, but this is a really low total. In today’s game, betting the Under on a total like this is far riskier than not just hammering the Over. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Kevin Durant Over 24+ Points (-122) | Durant plays a ton of minutes and has monster usage for this offense. The matchup stinks, but he is averaging 25.9 ppg on the year and can still feast in the mid-range in this spot. | 6/10 |
As betting lines shift for Hornets vs. Rockets, bettors look for value tied to defense, pace, and key player props. Compare updated odds at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Houston Rockets 112, Charlotte Hornets 109
My main Hornets vs. Rockets prediction is that Houston defends their home court and gets the win. Charlotte is on fire with seven consecutive wins, but streaks like that are born to die.
Charlotte has been very impressive, and they do have hot outside shooting, but they’re on the road, and the Rockets’ perimeter defense should be their kryptonite. I think they can keep it close, and their three-point shooting can still force this game to be a bit higher scoring than the over/under suggests.
Overall, the Rockets have a ton to play for still and are tough to beat at home. I wouldn’t mess with the spread. Just hammer the Rockets moneyline and consider my secondary plays as add-on bets.
