Atlanta Hawks vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction & Best Bets (January 9th, 2026)
The Atlanta Hawks officially begin a new era, as they head to Denver as 1.5-point underdogs to face the Nuggets in their first game without Trae Young.
Atlanta dealt the star guard to the Wizards earlier this week, setting the stage for emerging stud Jalen Johnson to fully take over as the new face of the franchise. The team brought back veteran guard C.J. McCollum and sharpshooter Corey Kispert in the deal, but it’s unclear if they will be available for this game.
The Hawks can use all the help they can get, of course, as Denver is still a deep team even with star center Nikola Jokic sidelined. It’s precisely Jokic’s absence that keeps this spread tight, but Jamal Murray and co. contribute to a gaudy 235.5 game total.
It’s a fun game environment across the board, so let’s dive in and find the best bets. I’ll go over the latest odds and key matchups, while wrapping things up with a final Hawks vs. Nuggets prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Atlanta Hawks (18-21) vs. Denver Nuggets (25-12)
- Date & Time: Friday, January 9th at 8:00 pm (9:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Ball Arena in Denver, CO
- How to Watch: Altitude Sports and NBA League Pass
Early Season Performance & Trends
Atlanta Hawks
Per usual, the Hawks have been an up-and-down team this year. The now traded Young has been in and out of the lineup, while the team acquired big man Kristaps Porzingis this offseason, and he’s struggled to stay healthy as well.
The Trae Young trade was arguably a long time coming, and while it hurts the Hawks in the short-term, it’s the right call for both sides. Atlanta battled to an 18-21 start with Young inconsistently part of the equation, while they had faded after a solid start – going just 3-9 over their last 12 games.
Atlanta is still a gifted offensive team that has defensive potential, and tearing off the Trae Young band-aid should be a move that contributes to accelerated growth.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are once again one of the better teams in the Western Conference this year. That will happen when you have the best big man in the game in Nikola Jokic, who managed to drop an insane 56-point triple-double in a game this season.
Jokic is currently on the shelf with an injury, but he’s been a big part of a strong 25-12 start. Denver can only climb so high in a conference (and division) with the Oklahoma City Thunder in it, but they are still within striking distance of a top seed.
They are definitely a different (and more beatable) team sans The Joker, but Jamal Murray spearheads a still capable offense. The return of previously banged-up options like Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun provides a necessary boost heading into Friday’s tilt, too.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
This inter-conference showdown only has 102 previous meetings during the regular season.
The matchup has been quite even, however, with Atlanta holding a 52-50 series edge. The Nuggets won the previous meeting in early December in a crazy 134-133 shootout, while they have won six in a row in the series.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Hawks are a bit tough to gauge without Trae Young in play, as they were quite perimeter-based with him running the show. Young was fantastic at letting it fly from long range, while he’s also one of the better playmaking guards in the NBA.
Losing that isn’t nothing, but the Hawks do still have the incredibly dynamic Jalen Johnson (23.5 ppg), while the breakout of Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.4 ppg) undoubtedly played into the franchise feeling good about moving on from Young.
Dyson Daniels also gives Atlanta an elite two-way presence, while big man Onyeka Okongwu is a force down low, averaging over 16 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. The franchise never knows when they’ll get reliable production out of Kristaps Porzingis, but for the moment, he in theory provides stellar scoring and depth off the bench.
Collectively, this unit is lights out, putting up 118 points per game (11th), running and gunning on the break (5th in transition scoring), ranking #1 in assists, and grading out as the league’s 5th best three-point shooting team.
The departure of Young will likely hurt some of those numbers, but ATL is undeniably a fun offensive team that is tough to slow down across the board.
We are in a similar situation with the Nuggets, but even more so. Jokic is still on the roster, but he won’t be active for this game, so Denver’s overall numbers are going to be hard to trust.
The offense flows through Jokic, who quarterbacked the NBA’s most efficient offense, averaging over 29 points and 10.9 assists per game. That is not really possible to replace, but Jamal Murray (25.3 ppg, 7.4 apg) is going to do his best.
Murray can explode as a scorer and set the offense up, while he will hopefully get some help from ancillary pieces such as Gordon, Braun, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr.
We can anticipate a drop in general production, consistency, and reliability. However, Jokic leaves behind the top-scoring offense in the league. Denver ranks 5th in assists per game, 10th on the break, 3rd at the charity stripe, and #1 from deep.
Does all of that mean nothing with Jokic sidelined? That’s the magic question.
The Hawks may lose some of their offensive zip with Trae Young gone, but they still rank 2nd in pace. Losing Young does help their defense, though, as the Hawks were 16th in defensive efficiency and ranked 24th in scoring before the trade.
Denver is even worse defensively (24th), and the loss of Jokic probably doesn’t help matters. Jokic is far from an elite individual defender, but he cleans the glass with the best of them and is a big body to account for. Offensively, the Nuggets were pretty slow (25th) with Jokic, but could speed things up while he’s away.
- Atlanta’s bigs vs. Denver’s bigs: This is probably the key to the game. Atlanta has way more talent down low in this spot, with Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson likely being able to feast in this matchup. Look for the Hawks to score inside and dominate the glass.
- Three-point barrage: With Young gone, the Hawks could see a dip in overall three-point shooting, while Jokic being out may impact Denver’s upside from long range, too. Both teams love to launch and can hit at an elite rate, though, so the more aggressive and more efficient team from deep could be key to this game.
- Free throw battle: I lean Denver here, as they have some pretty aggressive isolation players in Murray and Gordon that could enforce their will here. Atlanta (25th) also isn’t good at protecting the paint, while they only rank 19th in terms of stopping opponents from getting to the line. The Hawks also rank 26th in regards to getting to the charity stripe, so this could be an important edge for Denver.
Atlanta is just 19-20 against the spread on the year. They are better on the road (12-9) and especially good when they’re the underdog (7-5) in that setting. The Hawks are just 8-16 ATS with equal rest, however, but they are 10-4 ATS in non-conference games.
Denver is a strong 22-15 against the spread so far this season. They are 8-6 ATS against the Eastern Conference, while they are 16-14 ATS when favored and 9-6 ATS at home.
The Over has gone 21-18 in Atlanta games this year. It’s gone 24-13 in Nuggets games as well.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Hawks vs. Nuggets betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | +1 (-114) | -108 | Over 233.5 (-114) |
Nuggets | -1 (-106) | -108 | Under 233.5 (-106) |
This is a very tight spread considering the Hawks are on the road. However, both teams are missing a huge piece to their offense, and Atlanta has performed well on the road.
The game total is high, but the last meeting between these two sides was quite explosive. Neither team is elite defensively, while both teams have high-level offensive aptitude.
From a Bettor’s Lens
If we bet on either team, we’re just attacking the moneyline. The initial gut call is to hammer the Over. Atlanta can play fast, and both teams can get hot from long range.
With no defense to speak of, landing on a comfortable Nuggets vs. Hawks prediction won’t be easy, but one bet for sure stands out.
Situational Considerations
The trade of Trae Young and the absence of Jokic are two massive holes for either side. One is obviously a bit bigger than the other, while both teams have been playing recently without their key piece.
Both teams will be fairly well rested, as they played on January 7th and have had the last two days to rest.
Tonight’s game is played in Denver, where the Nuggets are 10-5 on the year. Atlanta has been surprisingly solid (11-10) on the road, and they have a better record in other arenas than their own (7-11).
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 233.5 (-114) | This game is missing two key stars, which can impact the product, but both teams can still fill it up from long range and don’t play defense. I fully expect a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring. | 8/10 |
Nuggets ML (-108) | Denver is at home and is still led by a very good player in Murray. Assuming he has extra help with Gordon and Braun chipping in, I like their chances. | 8/10 |
Prop Play – Jamal Murray Over 28+ Points (-115) | Win or lose, Murray is going to get his. Facing the pesky Dyson Daniels is cause for pause, but sheer volume and game environment are going to bail him out. | 8/10 |
Hawks vs. Nuggets odds are shifting fast as spreads flip and the total draws action — track every line move, compare prices across books, and secure the best value before tip-off at our trusted sportsbooks.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Denver Nuggets 127, Atlanta Hawks 125
My main Hawks vs. Nuggets prediction is that this game is about as wild as the first meeting. I know losing Young and Jokic from this matchup is a blow, but we should still get a fast-paced environment, a lot of shots from long range, and very little defense.
The Over is the smash bet in this game, but getting the Nuggets at -108 in a home game against a reeling Hawks team feels like another steal. Murray has also taken on a massive role with Jokic sidelined and is a legit threat to score 40+ on any given night right now. We can get him at just -115 for only 28+ points.
Needless to say, the Hawks vs. Nuggets game is one of the more inviting spots on Friday’s NBA betting slate. Start by hammering the Over, and if you’re feeling ambitious, target the other two Hawks vs. Nuggets picks.
