Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels Prediction (February 28th, 2026)
The 2026 West Coast regular-season conference title hangs in the balance on Saturday night. The Gonzaga Bulldogs presently reside at the top of the conference, but FanDuel will have them as ever so slight 1.5-point favorites to hold onto that spot.
Gonzaga is putting a solid 9-1 road mark and pristine 28-2 overall record on the line as they travel to McKeon Pavilion in Moraga, California. There, the 26-4 Saint Mayr’s Gael will be waiting for them, prepared to go to war to defend their perfect 16-0 home record.
Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga have everything to play for. Both teams are red hot, riding six and seven-game winning streaks. Saying this one is for “all the marbles” doesn’t even do it justice, as a Gonzaga win would secure the regular season championship, and a Gael upset would make them co-champs.
Needless to say, there’s a lot going into this one, and it’s tough to call. On one hand, Saint Mary’s has been tough to fend off at the top of this conference. On the other hand, you may struggle to find a better price on the Zags the rest of the year.
Looking for the best Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s picks? Join me as I break this game down, highlighting the top plays en route to a final Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gael prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-2) vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-4)
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 28th, at 10:30 pm ET
- Venue: McKeon Pavilion in Moraga, CA
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Early Season Performance & Trends
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Mark Few leads a Bulldogs team that once again has title aspirations. They come into an extremely tense setting and hostile environment, but it’s one they know well.
This is also a situation Gonzaga is built for. The #9 team in the country has lost just one game on the road all year, while they boast an elite 28-2 overall record. The Zags are red hot at the moment, winning each of their last six games and nine of their last 10.
Gonzaga should be up for this game for several reasons. For one, they probably won’t like the idea of sharing the West Coast regular-season title. Secondly, and maybe more importantly for some members of the team, they’d like a proper send-off in what is their last WCC regular-season tilt before transitioning to the Pac-12 next season.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
This is as big as it gets for a team like Saint Mary’s. They can’t do more than earn a share of the WCC regular season crown, but there’s zero chance they want to relinquish that.
Saint Mary’s has enjoyed a fantastic year en route to a 26-4 start, while they have been literally unbeatable (16-0) on their home floor.
They lost this same game on the road earlier this season (73-65), so a little bit of sweet revenge is on the brain. On top of that, the Gael will want to maintain a strong record to aid their March Madness seeding.
So far, so good. Saint Mary’s has been on fire, as they’ve won seven straight and are 9-1 over their last 10 games.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
This is the last regular-season battle between these two sides as conference rivals. It’s the end of an era, and there have been some heated battles in this matchup’s history.
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have faced off 120 total times, while the Zags have understandably dominated with an 83-37 overall series lead.
It hasn’t always been an easy clash for the Bulldogs, though. They won the last two meetings, but those victories came by eight and seven points. Before that, the Gael was ablaze during a three-game winning streak.
Overall, it’s been an even series recently, as the two have split it right down the middle (3-3) over the last six meetings.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Bulldogs are powered by star forward Graham Ike, who puts up 19.8 points per game and dominates on the glass. He is what makes their offense move, but he gets a lot of help from fellow forward Braden Huff (17.7 ppg).
Gonzaga is pretty top-heavy as far as where they get their scoring from, but Tyon Grant-Forester chips in 11.1 points per game and Braedon Smith leads all players with 3.9 assists per game.
The Zags are one of the best offenses in the nation with 86.9 points per game (14th), while they share the rock (9th in assists), rebound well, and are highly efficient. Gonzaga can get into lulls from deep and doesn’t do a great job of getting to (or converting at) the free-throw line, however.
The Gael are not nearly as explosive as Gonzaga on offense. They average 78.1 points per game (106th), but they don’t move the ball as organically and aren’t hyper-efficient.
This offense is the opposite of the Zags, as they can be a handful from long range. Saint Mary’s can be lethal from deep, as they shoot at a sick 38% clip (13th). They’re also elite at finishing the job when they get to the free-throw line (1st).
Saint Mary’s is led by Paulius Murauskas (18.9 ppg), while Joshua Dent (13.2 ppg) and Mike Lewis (13.3 ppg) make up a strong trio of scorers the Gael can turn to with confidence.
Gonzaga has been one of the toughest defensive teams in the country, as they rank 17th in scoring (66.1 ppg) and clean the glass at an elite rate. The Zags are also nasty on the interior, making teams work for good shots, while defending the outside (26th) at a high level.
Saint Mary’s has been even better, as they allow just 65.1 points per game (12th), and are also very good in the rebounding department (18th). Saint Mary’s also defends the long ball well and limits opposing trips to the free throw line (11th).
In terms of pace, Gonzaga plays at a solid pace, ranking 70th in the country with 73 possessions per game. The Gael is very slow by comparison, ranking 302nd in the nation.
- Saint Mary’s perimeter offense vs. Gonzaga’s perimeter defense: The Gael aren’t a high-volume offense from outside, but they still shoot at an elite level from deep. If those outside shots aren’t falling, they could struggle to keep up with the Zags.
- Interior Battle: Both of these teams have some really strong play inside. Gonzaga is hyper-efficient and ranks 3rd in shooting inside the paint, but both teams also defend the interior very well. The edge goes to the Zags, but this will be a close battle, both in terms of scoring and rebounding.
- Free Throw Battle: Saint Mary’s doesn’t issue free passes to the free throw line, and Gonzaga ranks just 272nd in free-throw rate. It’s pretty unlikely the Bulldogs control this game from the line, while the Gael just might.
The Bulldogs have been respectable (17-13) against the spread this year. They are 9-8 ATS inside the WCC, they’re 14-13 ATS following a win, and they are 7-3 ATS as the road favorite.
The Gael are better against the spread (18-11). Saint Mary’s has gone 1-1 versus ranked opponents, while they are 1-2 ATS as the underdog, 12-5 ATS inside of conference play, and 11-4 ATS on their home floor.
The Under has hit in almost 67% of games for the Bulldogs this year, while the Under has hit almost 52% of the time in Saint Mary’s games.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Gonzaga | -1.5 (-110) | -132 | Over 142.5 (-115) |
Saint Mary’s | +1.5 (-110) | +110 | Under 142.5 (-105) |
Gonzaga comes into this one as a very light favorite in a game that is basically a pick’em. There is not even a moneyline listed for this game, but once it pops up, it would be the preferred bet given how close the spread is.
The pricing is fair given Saint Mary’s dominance at home and what is at stake, but it’s worth noting the Bulldogs have won the last two games by seven and eight points.
This is a somewhat light game total, but it makes sense given Saint Mary’s slow pace and both teams’ ability to play elite defense.
From a Bettor’s Lens
At FanDuel, Gonzaga is getting 86% of the bets on the point spread at the moment. I can’t fault anyone for that, as this is a very cheap price for them. Ideally, we’re hammering the ML no matter which side we’re taking, but for now, Gonzaga ATS calls to me.
I’d also look to target the Under here. The Gael play slow and both teams should be up for this game. It’s a heated rivalry, but it’s also the end of an era, and the Zags have the opportunity to fend off Saint Mary’s and secure the regular-season crown.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Gonzaga ATS -1.5 (-110) | Saint Mary’s is tough to beat at home, but there’s a strong narrative built into this one for the Zags. They have bigger dreams ahead, too, and dropping this game just isn’t something they can afford to do. | 9/10 |
Under 142.5 (-105) | Gonzaga’s offensive upside makes the Under a bit scary, but both teams defend well. The intensity in this matchup and the fact that the game is in Saint Mary’s house makes me like a lower-scoring game. | 6/10 |
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s odds show a 142.5 total as two elite defenses clash for the WCC crown. Track spread and total movement at our trusted sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Gonzaga Bulldogs 70, Saint Mary’s Gaels 67
My main Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s prediction is that the Bulldogs find a way to get the win. The Gael have had a share of the WCC title in each of the last three years, but with Gonzaga leaving the conference – and still having so much to play for – I think they send a message here.
Ideally, you can find a moneyline bet to target for this game, but I don’t see why the Zags can’t safely win by two.
In addition, Saint Mary’s home court edge, their slow pace, and both teams’ ability to defend so well should equate to a more methodical game and fewer than expected points. The last meeting was a defensive battle that failed to top this total, and I anticipate a similar result.
