Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction (January 31st, 2026)
UFC 325 can’t possibly top what we saw at UFC 324, but it sure will try. We’ve already handed out an Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopez 2 prediction, but if you want even more betting value, you can target some Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy picks.
The age-old question, of course, is which ones? This is one of the more compelling UFC 325 fights to bet on, as it is priced ridiculously tight and has two nasty fighters facing off.
You can make strong arguments for both sides, but right now DraftKings has Ruffy as a mild -120 favorite to get the win. That doesn’t promote a ton of confidence, while you get Fiziev at plus money. If that’s not a pick’em, I don’t know what is.
Put simply, this one is tough to call. You’re likely in agreement, which is why you find yourself hunting down a Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction. Don’t worry, as I got you covered with an odds breakdown and the best bets to target for this bout.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 325
- When: Saturday, January 31
- Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park Australia
- Schedule:Main Card – 9:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC 325 card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Rafael Fiziev | +102 |
Mauricio Ruffy | -122 |
Fight Goes the Distance | Yes (-145) | No (+110) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (+125) | Submission (+1100) | Decision (-145) | Draw (+5000) |
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds indicate Mauricio Ruffy is a very slight favorite in a close matchup. The pricing also suggests that a submission is extremely unlikely. This fight is favored to go the distance, but if it does end early, a knockout is the most probable route.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Rafael Fiziev
The 32-year-old Fiziev doesn’t get enough love. He’s only fought 17 professional MMA bouts, but he’s a rock-solid 13-4, and all of those losses have come against high-level competition.
One of those defeats came way back in 2019. Since then, he has been on a bit of a tear, as he rattled off six straight wins inside the Octagon before dropping three in a row. One was a brutal loss to Mateusz Gamrot, where he hurt his knee, but he otherwise went the distance with Justin Gaethje (twice), and recently bounced back from that skid to outlast Ignacio Bahamondes.
Fiziev also has impressive victories over the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Bobby Green. He is an extremely tough fighter with explosive upside, as he has eight KOs in 13 wins, and he’s only been truly KO’d one time in his career.
This current version of Fiziev is a nightmare, as going toe-to-toe with Gaethje even one time can attest to. He is a pretty one-dimensional fighter, but he is a deadly striker who is very aggressive. Fiziev can work kicks nicely, pushes the pace, is aggressive, and plays for contact.
Fiziev is going to generate a lot of volume and inflict plenty of damage. He isn’t a threat to take the fight to the ground and only has one career submission, while he can take advantage of chaos and scraps.
When he faces a sound wrestler, he can be in trouble, but in a matchup like this with Ruffy, he is 100% in play for the upset.
Mauricio Ruffy
Ruffy is just as good as Fiziev, if not better. He is a pure striker with a strong 12-2 mark. He was a perfect 3-0 under the UFC banner before getting submitted by Benoit St. Denis at UFC Fight Night 258.
Losing to a talent like St. Denis brings no shame to anyone’s family. However, Ruffy hasn’t taken out many marquee names, and when he upper the competition level he didn’t get it done.
Fiziev may be a technical step back, but Ruffy could still have his work cut out for him. That said, Ruffy is just as deadly, as he has 11 KOs across 12 career wins. He’s been finished twice with one KO loss, but nobody has knocked him out since 2019.
Ruffy is going to seek out contact early and hunt for the finish, but he does have the patience and timing needed to grind out a Decision. His opponent is not an easy guy to take out, after all, so his ability to absorb damage and establish a good pace could also help him in this spot.
Tale of the Tape
| Rafael Fiziev | Mauricio Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 13-4 | 12-2 |
Height | 5’8” | 5’11” |
Reach | 71” | 75” |
Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
Style | Muay Thai | Striker |
These guys are very similar fighters with almost identical records. Ruffy is taller and longer, which could give him an edge in a likely striker vs. striker duel.
Fiziev’s skill set is a little more versatile, and he may have the wrestling edge, but this one is incredibly close. The talent gap is about as wide as the odds, which isn’t much.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Check out some key Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy matchup angles for this bout:
- Volume vs. Pace: Fiziev inflicts more damage and should dish out more volume, while Ruffy picks his spots and can be more patient. The question is if Fiziev’s early assault will win out, or if he’ll tire himself into a lethal shot from Ruffy.
- Finish Him: Both of these fighters have high finish rates and have also been finished before themselves. It is a bit odd that a Decision is the favored method of victory here.
- Striker’s Dream: Neither of these fighters are overly versatile. They are not high-level wrestlers or grapplers, and they are not major threats to get a submission. That leans into a bit of a firefight, with a knockout being the most compelling method of victory.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy bets for this weekend:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Fight to Go the Distance – No (+110) | I was surprised to see the odds favoring a Decision for this bout. These guys punch hard and look to finish fights. I see a fight where they trade blows, with someone not making it to the finish line. | 9/10 |
Method of Victory – KO/TKO (+125) | These guys are tough as nails, but they are also strikers at heart and very explosive. They can defend well, but they are going to stand and trade. I don’t see this thing lasting three rounds. | 9/10 |
Faziev to Win (+102) | This one is a legit toss-up, but Faziev does dish out more damage and may have the slight grappling edge. The fact that he comes in at plus money is the icing on the cake for me. | 6/10 |
Odd lines are shifting for Fiziev vs. Ruffy as bettors react to knockout upside and tight pricing. Track odds movement and compare our trusted UFC betting sites.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on a high-variance sport like MMA. Here’s why our Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy picks could fail:
- Boring Bout: These guys are dangerous, so it’s not crazy to think they both end up being too careful and extend the bout.
- Grappler’s Dream: This fight projects to be a striker’s duel, but what if it’s not? Given both fighters’ weak grappling, it’s possible one of them will try to exploit the other’s key flaw.
- Close Call: The biggest problem is the pricing is too tight, and these guys are such similar fighters. If they stand and trade, it could come down to sheer luck as to who wins.
The Bottom Line: Fiziev Rocks Ruffy, Earns FOTN Honors
My main Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction is that this fight doesn’t go the distance. You can bet on that at +110, but I think there’s even more value to be had.
Both of these guys are terrific strikers with explosive finishing ability. Fiziev may have a slight grappling edge and dishes out more volume and more damage. That gives him a narrow edge, and with him coming in at plus money, I think he’s an easy pick.
That said, betting on a finish in any regard is a fine way to go, while a KO/TKO method of victory bet also returns stellar value. With neither fighter being a realistic threat to win via submission, the only risk would be this fight lasting three rounds.
Final Prediction Summary
- Fight to Go the Distance – No (+110) | Confidence: 9/10
- Method of Victory – KO/TKO (+125) | Confidence: 9/10
- Winner – Rafael Faziev (+102) | Confidence: 6/10
