Ducks vs. Golden Knights Game 5 Prediction (5/12/2026)
The Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights play Game 5 of the Western Conference Second Round at T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday night with the series tied 2-2, and the play on the board is Ducks +1.5 on the puck line (-192 at DraftKings) — a Standard Play backed by a series in which Anaheim has covered the puck line in three of four games and three of four contests have been decided by two goals or fewer.
Vegas had this series in hand at 2-1 after a 6-2 Game 3 thumping in Anaheim and then watched the Ducks even it up Sunday night 4-3 behind a Lukas Dostal rebound and Anaheim’s first power-play goal of the series. Now the Golden Knights are home with home ice for the first time since Game 2 (which they lost) and a question mark next to captain Mark Stone, who hasn’t played since suffering a lower-body injury in the first period of Game 3. Puck drop is 9:30 PM ET on ESPN.
T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas, NV · ESPN
Matchup Overview
This is the first-ever playoff meeting between Anaheim and Vegas, and through four games it has played like a series neither team can put away. Vegas took Game 1 in town 3-1, Anaheim flipped Game 2 in Vegas by the same 3-1 score, the Golden Knights ran away in Game 3 at Honda Center 6-2, and the Ducks answered Sunday night with a 4-3 win to send it back to T-Mobile Arena dead even. The goal totals tell the story of the swing: 4, 4, 8, 7. Two grinders, then two open games.
The goalie picture is the cleanest part of the matchup. Carter Hart has been the guy for John Tortorella’s group all postseason and enters Game 5 with a 6-4 record, a 2.55 GAA, and a .908 save percentage across 10 playoff games — including a .971 in the Game 1 win over Anaheim. Lukas Dostal, on the Ducks’ side, was pulled in Game 3 after surrendering three goals on nine shots in the first period, then came back Sunday night and held the line for a 4-3 Game 4 win. Both coaches have publicly stuck with their starters, so expect the same matchup again.
The injury board is where Game 5 gets interesting. Vegas captain Mark Stone has not played since suffering a lower-body injury late in the first period of Game 3 — he tried to return in the second but aggravated it skating during a TV timeout, and missed Game 4 entirely. Tortorella has held to his standing no-injuries-talk policy, so Stone’s Game 5 status was unconfirmed in pre-game reports. Brandon Saad slotted in at third-line LW for his postseason debut in Game 4, Pavel Dorofeyev moved up to first-line RW, and Mitch Marner took Stone’s spot on the first power-play unit.
Anaheim is dealing with its own questions: captain Radko Gudas has missed the past seven games with a lower-body issue, and Drew Helleson is day-to-day on the blue line. ESPN lists both as expected for Game 5, but neither return is confirmed.
Odds & Line Analysis
DraftKings has Vegas as a -155 home favorite with Anaheim coming back at +130. The puck line is Vegas -1.5 (+160) and Anaheim +1.5 (-192). The total sits at 6.5 with the Over shaded to -125 and the Under priced at -105, meaning the book is pulling juice on the Over — an indication money has come in on the side that fits the last two games’ scoring profile.
The number worth circling here is the puck line. Across four games this series has produced one four-goal margin (Vegas 6-2 in Game 3) and three games decided by two goals or fewer — the 3-1 Game 1, the 3-1 Game 2, and the 4-3 Game 4. Anaheim has covered +1.5 in three of those four contests. The cost of that pattern is heavy: -192 implies a 65.7% breakeven, and the in-series cover rate is 75%. That’s a 9-point edge if the close-game profile holds, which is the kind of margin that justifies laying the juice in a Game 5 of a tied series — the spots where teams tend to play tight, not loose.
Worth noting too: the covers.com win-probability model has Vegas at 60% to win outright, which lines up almost exactly with the implied -155 moneyline, suggesting the game side is priced about right and the value sits on the puck line, not the ML.
Key Factors
Three angles are doing the heaviest lifting on this puck-line play: the close-game pattern in the series, Mark Stone’s uncertain status capping Vegas’s offensive ceiling, and Anaheim’s power play finding life in Game 4 after going 0-for-11 to start the series. The big risk is a Carter Hart repeat of his Game 1 stonewall — if he flips into shutdown mode, the Ducks can lose by three or four even in a game they otherwise play well.
Game 1 went 3-1, Game 2 went 3-1, and Game 4 went 4-3. The only blowout was Vegas’s 6-2 Game 3, which came on the road and was driven by an early Dostal pull. Game 5s in 2-2 series historically tighten up — both teams know a loss is a near-elimination scenario, and coaches lean defensive. The matchup profile points to another grinder, which is precisely the band where +1.5 cashes.
Stone is the Knights’ all-time postseason scoring leader and the second piece of their top line behind Jack Eichel. Vegas didn’t fall apart in Game 4 without him — they still hung three on Anaheim — but the offensive shape changes. Dorofeyev moving up the lineup leaves the second line thinner, and Marner running PP1 in Stone’s role is a workable but unproven configuration. Even a hopeful Game 5 return for Stone likely means a reduced role, not vintage Stone. That’s a real headwind on the Vegas -1.5 side and supports the Ducks +1.5 read.
The Ducks were 0-for-11 on the man advantage entering Game 4 and finally cracked through Sunday night for their first PP goal of the series. Mason McTavish coming off a healthy scratch to bolster the unit looks like a legitimate adjustment, and Leo Carlsson is sitting on six points across his last six games against Vegas. If the Ducks PP keeps converting — even at a modest 15-20% clip — that’s an extra goal a game they didn’t have in the first three contests, which is the difference between losing 3-1 and losing 3-2 or pushing to overtime. Both outcomes cash +1.5.
The Pick
The Ducks +1.5 puck line at -192 is the cleanest play on the board. Anaheim has covered the puck line in three of four games this series, three of four games have been decided by two goals or fewer, and Game 5s in tied series tend to tighten rather than blow open. The juice is steep, but a 9-point edge over the breakeven number is a clean Standard Play.
The thesis breaks if Carter Hart turns in another Game 1-style .970-plus performance and Vegas pulls away by three or four — that’s the real downside scenario, and it’s not negligible. But for the most likely outcome bands — Vegas wins 3-2 or 4-3, the game goes to overtime, or Anaheim wins outright — the puck line cashes.
If you want a secondary sprinkle, Ducks +130 on the moneyline is a defensible coinflip-grade dog — Anaheim has already stolen one in Vegas this series (Game 2) and the covers.com model has them at 40% to win outright, which is a touch under the +130 implied breakeven of 43.5%.
For background on the bet types in play, our point spread betting guide walks through how the puck line works, and the broader sports betting guide covers the rest of the menu. The full Round 2 schedule and any game-day updates are live at the NHL.com Round 2 schedule page.
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Frequently Asked Questions
A few quick answers to the questions readers are asking heading into Game 5 of Ducks-Golden Knights — Mark Stone’s status, where the total sits, and what’s at stake for Vegas’s home-ice edge if this thing goes the distance.
Is Mark Stone going to play in Game 5 against the Ducks?
Mark Stone’s status for Game 5 has not been officially confirmed. He suffered a lower-body injury late in the first period of Game 3, tried to return in the second but aggravated it during a TV timeout, and missed Game 4 entirely. Head coach John Tortorella has held to his standing policy of not discussing injuries publicly, so the only confirmation either way will be the warm-up skate at T-Mobile Arena. Brandon Saad replaced Stone in the lineup for Game 4 and Pavel Dorofeyev moved up to the first line.
What’s the over/under for Game 5 of Ducks vs. Golden Knights, and which side is the smarter play?
The total at DraftKings is 6.5, with the Over priced at -125 and the Under at -105. The series has averaged 5.75 goals per game across the first four contests (4, 4, 8, 7 total goals), which technically favors the Under, but the most recent two games went 8 and 7 and DraftKings has shaded the Over juice, suggesting money has come in on the side that fits the recent trend. The cleaner edge in this game sits on the puck line rather than the total, but if you’re shopping totals, the Under at -105 is the slight value side given the series average.
Who has home ice if the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks go to a Game 6 or Game 7?
Vegas has home ice for the series as the higher seed, so a Game 7 if necessary would be played at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, May 16. Game 6 is scheduled for Honda Center in Anaheim on Thursday, May 14, at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN. If Vegas wins Game 5 on Tuesday and the series ends in six, Game 7 is off the board.
