Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates Prediction (Saturday, May 2nd, 2026)
MMA fans get a good one on Saturday, as Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates square off in the final fight at UFC Fight Night 275.
The 29-year old JDM enters as a very light -102 underdog at DraftKings, but this fight is as close to a pick’em as it gets. It’s not just in terms of odds, either, as MMA betting experts everywhere are split as to who will actually win.
There’s little denying that the technically sound Jack Della Maddalena is the more polished boxer. If the fight stays confined, he can execute his jab, and avoid wild shots, JDM probably controls this thing and the end result is likely a Decision win in his favor.
The problem? UFC fights are often unpredictable. JDM could always struggle to consistently work his jab against a violent and explosive fighter like Prates, while the possibility of a vicious knockout looms large.
So, who will take this fight? Should you bet on Jack Della Maddalena, or is a Prates KO prop too alluring to ignore? I’ll break this matchup down, hand out my top picks, and wrap things up neatly with a final Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates prediction.
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates odds over at DraftKings:
- Jack Della Maddalena: -102
- Carlos Prates: -118
- Fight Goes the Distance: Yes (+150) | No (-200)
- Method of Victory: KO/TKO (-175) | Submission (+900) | Decision (+150) | Draw (+5000)
What the Odds Tell Us
The pricing here suggests this is a pick’em fight. It’s a very evenly matched bout in terms of skill and odds, with Carlos Prates coming in as the very slight betting favorite.
The odds suggest Prates wins and that his KO power will have this fight ending early. This bout is not favored to go the distance, and a knockout is the favored method of victory. That all combines to make Prates via KO a pretty compelling bet at +165.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Jack Della Maddalena
The 29-year old Jack Della Maddalena stands in at a stellar 18-3, with his only loss since 2016 coming in his last bout. That was a Decision defeat against Islam Makhachev, which brings no shame to JDM’s family.
Della Maddalena was riding an 18-fight winning streak prior to that, as he’s leaned on elite boxing fundamentals, high volume, exceptional accuracy, and steady pressure. His jab is active and as good as it gets, while he can also mix in some wrestling to throw his opponents off kilter.
This is mainly a productive striker who is going to control the pace, apply pressure, and inflict plenty of damage. Jack Della Maddalena is more precision and accumulative than crazy KO stud, but he does have plenty of power and has 12 KO wins to his name.
This is not a lightly traveled boxer. JDM lived to tell about his fight with Islam, and he’s taken out big names such as Belal Muhammad, Gilbert Burns, and Kevin Holland.
In terms of technical striking, he has the clear edge heading into his 5-round tilt with Carlos Prates.
Carlos Prates
Prates is three years older than JDM at age 32, but he’s the far more explosive fighter. He has four more wins and more overall experience, while he is an elite finisher with 18 knockouts and 21 of 23 victories coming before the final bell.
Prates can leave himself open to damage as he waits for the right moment to strike, but he has taken down some big names and he very rarely gets tripped up. He’s been especially hot for some time now, as he’s 7-1 in the UFC and has just one loss since 2021.
His resume looks rather strong, as he KO’d Leon Edwards in his last bout, while he’s managed to finish Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, Jingliang Li, Charles Radtke, and Trevin Giles. Edwards is probably the only guy on JDM’s level, but Prates doesn’t really have an off button, as he’s scored a finish in 12 of his last 13 fights.
Prates is going to lose in the volume department here, but he’s pretty tough and can take on some damage as he finds the perfect spots to unload on JDM. That doesn’t mean a KO (or even a win) is a lock, but Prates will have his moments to test Della Maddalena’s chin.
Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Record | Height | Reach | Stance | Style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Della Maddalena | 18-3 | 5’11” | 73 in | Switch | Mixed Martial Artist |
| Prates | 23-7 | 6’1″ | 78 in | Switch | Striker |
Prates has a little more overall experience than Della Maddalena, but both of these guys have fought plenty and have very strong resumes in terms of the competition they’ve faced.
Prates is three years older, but he also has a pretty massive height and reach advantage. Considering both of these guys are strikers at heart, that gives him a leg up.
Both guys can switch up their stance and JDM offers some wrestling, but shooting for takedowns will also be problematic due to the ground he’ll have to cover in this matchup.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s take a close look at the key matchup angles that could decide this fight:
- Pure Striking Battle: It’s always possible JDM decides to wrestle, but this fight is best fought standing up. It’s the greatest edge for both fighters, as JDM will lean on pace and pressure, while Prates will hope the shots he lands can weaken his opponent’s chin.
- Early Flurry vs. Long Game: Prates probably needs to get to JDM early if he wants to win. His most likely path to victory is via KO, and each of his last 12 finishes have come within the first two rounds. The last two times his fight went beyond 2 rounds? He’s 1-1 in Decisions.
- Durability vs. Damage: Both of these guys are going to unleash damage. That’s no secret. The true test will be who can absorb more punishment and stay dialed in. JDM will connect more, but Prates’ power might be felt more.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates bets at UFC Fight Night 275:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates ML (-118) | Prates can take on some punishment, but he’s the more vicious finisher. This fight sets up nicely for him and he also happens to have a massive height and reach advantage. | 7/10 |
| Method of Victory – KO/TKO (-175) | This is a striking battle, so either Prates wears down and gets finished late, or he surprises JDM with his power and gets yet another win before round three. | 8/10 |
| Fight to Go the Distance – No (-200) | One way or another, I can’t see this fight lasting all that long. If JDM controls it there’s a decent chance it goes all the way, but the way these guys are going to go at each other, I can’t imagine it actually gets there. | 8/10 |
- Steady Pace: JDM is the better boxer and could easily end up picking Prates apart, limiting devastating shots, and unleashing more damage. That could equate to a late finish by tiring Prates out, or a Decision win. Neither would be good for my Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates bets.
- Too Careful: JDM could play it safe and Prates could also fight against the script. You wouldn’t think it’d happen, but this can happen a lot when we think we’re in for a slugfest. If either of these guys is too timid, it messes up the fight flow as well as the ultimate result.
- Overly Aggressive: Prates hunts early finishes, so this fight could always go the wrong way for him if he over pursues or gets countered with a rough shot. If JDM catches him with his guard down at the wrong time, this fight could end early as predicted, but it’s very possible the underdog comes away with the win.
The Bottom Line: Prates’ Power Wins Out in KO of JDM
There’s no getting around the fact that this fight is incredibly close and very tough to call. Any Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates prediction should admittedly be taken with a huge grain of salt – even this one – just because the pricing and skill-sets are so tight.
On paper, JDM is definitely the more seasoned boxer. If he can control the pace, unleash damage, and avoid massive shots, he will win. The problem is Prates has proven that he can hang with this type of fighter, and he’s also proven that nobody is safe from his raw power.
Jack Della Maddalena is tough to bet against, seeing as the Perth native will be fighting in front of his home crowd. However, Prates is not going to slow down as a sign of respect. He’s going to try to overwhelm and embarrass JDM early, and I think he can be successful.
If the fight goes past the second round I think my picks are in major trouble. But until that happens, I’m betting on Prates power and vicious striking.
| Bet Type | Pick | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | KO/TKO | -175 | 8/10 |
| Fight Winner | Carlos Prates | -118 | 7/10 |
| Fight to Go the Distance | No | -200 | 8/10 |
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