Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction (February 25th, 2026)
NBA fans get a fun inter-conference matchup on Wednesday night, as the 38-19 Boston Celtics visit the 36-22 Denver Nuggets.
Boston has been red hot with a 9-1 run over their last 10 games, and will put a solid 20-10 road record to the test. Denver has been going in the opposite direction (4-6) over their last 10 games, but should be up to the challenge in this home date.
DraftKings has this one priced pretty tightly, with Denver pulling up as 3.5-point home favorites. Are they the right bet, or can the visiting Celtics grind out a tough road win?
I’ll go over this matchup and highlight the best bets en route to a final Celtics vs. Nuggets prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: New York Knicks (37-21) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (36-22)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, February 25th, at 9:00 pm (10:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Ball Arena in Denver, CO
- How to Watch: ESPN, and Altitude Sports
Early Season Performance & Trends
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have had an amazing season despite not having their best player – Jayson Tatum – for all of it. Jaylen Brown has put up MVP-caliber production en route to a stellar 38-19 record, which puts Boston in position to make a run at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
It’s insane that the Celtics are this good without Tatum, but the craziest part is they seem to only be getting better. The team added offensive reinforcements by trading for center Nikola Vucevic, and they’ve been on fire with a 9-1 run over their last 10 games.
Boston’s combination of perimeter offense and suffocating defense make them one of the toughest outs in the NBA, and just might make them a legit title threat.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets don’t pack the same defensive punch Boston does, but they still have one of the best players in the league in Nikola Jokic.
Jokic missed some time earlier this year, but Jamal Murray stopped the bleeding, and when healthy, this duo is tough to stop. They’ve made sure Denver’s offense hums with the best of them, while their dynamic offense is tough to stop in general.
Denver is still pushing for the top seed in the Western Conference, but with both the Spurs and Thunder ahead of them, they certainly have their work cut out for them. It doesn’t get any easier with a gritty Boston team coming to town on Wednesday night.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Celtics and Nuggets have only faced off 103 times in NBA history. Denver won the previous meeting this year in an exciting 114-110 showdown, so Boston will look to even the series.
Boston had the upper hand last year, as they swept the series in two close battles. Long-term, Denver is 4-2 over the last six meetings, while the Celtics own a 62-41 overall series lead.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Celtics lost a massive part of their offense with the Jayson Tatum injury, but the “next guy up” philosophy rang true for them. Jaylen Brown has taken over like a legit superstar, generating 29.2 points per game and also executing as a playmaker.
Brown hasn’t had to do it all on his own, of course, as Derrick White and Payton Pritchard take turns torching defenses, and this trio forms one of the most lethal outside attacks in the NBA.
Boston also gets help down low from Neemias Queta and newly acquired big man Nikola Vucevic, giving them a solid interior at both ends of the floor.
Collectively, the Celtics rank just 19th in scoring, but they are extremely efficient and are lights out from deep with 15.4 makes (3rd) per game.
The Nuggets aren’t a fun matchup for anyone, as Nikola Jokic continues to be a walking triple-double threat. He’s posting a 28-12-10 line on the year and can dominate inside, stretch the defense with his three-pointer, and also find the open teammate better than anyone in the league.
Jokic is just one piece to the puzzle, though, as Jamal Murray is an elite isolation scorer that can also run the offense and set up his teammates. Denver has a plethora of willing shooters from long range, too, as they put Murray and Jokic’s penetration and passing to good use.
Denver has battled injuries, but when they’re at full strength, they are a serious problem on offense. The Nuggets come into Wednesday ranked #1 in scoring, 9th in assists, and #1 in three-point shooting percentage.
The Celtics continue to have a serious defensive bite. They enter this matchup with the top-scoring defense and are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency.
Boston also defends the fast break at an elite level (4th), doesn’t give up anything easy down low (1st), and keeps opponents off of the three-point line.
Denver isn’t nearly as good on defense. The Nuggets rank just 24th in defensive efficiency and enter Wednesday night with the 19th-ranked scoring defense.
The Nuggets are a middle-of-the-road unit in most regards, but they actually lock down the three-point line (9th) at a solid level.
In terms of pace, both offenses play on the slow side. Boston ranks dead last in pace, while Denver ranks 22nd.
- Three-Point Barrage: Both of these teams are built to feast from long range, but Denver is oddly the one that actually defends the three pretty well. Both teams can go off, but the edge rests with the Nuggets from deep.
- Attack Mode: Boston’s interior defense is very good when Vucevic isn’t on the floor. I’m not sure anyone they have can stop Jokic, but they still have the edge inside. On the other end, Jaylen Brown should be aggressive against a middling Nuggets defense inside the paint.
- Free Throw Battle: Denver ranks 4th in free throw attempts per game, while Boston ranks 3rd in free throw attempts allowed per contest. Something has to break here. Denver should have a slight advantage at home, but Boston’s superior defense and tendency to avoid fouls will close the gap.
Boston has been very good (33-24) against the spread this year. They’re a solid 7-3 ATS as the road underdog, they’re 20-10 ATS on the road overall, and they are 10-5 ATS as the underdog overall.
The Celtics are also 21-16 ATS following a win, while they are 13-7 against the spread in non-conference matchups. They are just 7-8 ATS with the rest disadvantage, however.
Denver is about as good (32-26) against the spread this year. They are just 20-20 ATS when favored and 12-14 ATS at home, but they are 7-6 ATS with the rest advantage.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Celtics | +3.5 (-108) | +136 | Over 230.5 (-108) |
Nuggets | -3.5 (-112) | -162 | Under 230.5 (-112) |
Boston comes in as mild 3.5-point underdogs. This makes sense since they are on the road and just played in Phoenix last night.
The game total is fairly high at 230.5. This plays into both teams being very good offensively, as well as coming in at full strength.
From a Bettor’s Lens
Every part of this game is attackable. Boston’s spread is thick enough to like them ATS, while their moneyline is very tempting. Denver is about as good and at home, but if betting on Denver I’d play it safe with the ML.
The total is pretty high when you consider the pace of play, as well as Boston’s elite defense. The Under stands out as a pretty appealing bet, while it gets even more comfortable if you hunt for alternative over/unders.
Situational Considerations
Boston played last night and could be tired. They also could consider resting key bodies on the second leg of a back-to-back set. Jaylen Brown sat out last night’s game due to rest and should suit up for this one, however.
Jayson Tatum remains out for the Celtics. He’s rehabbing a torn Achilles that has forced him to miss the entire season to this point.
Jamal Murray and Julian Strawther are both on Denver’s injury report, but are listed as probable to play.
The Nuggets will continue to be without Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, and Jalen Pickett; all of which have already been ruled out for Wednesday’s game.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Celtics ATS +3.5 (-108) | Boston is very good against the spread, and they are stingy on defense. They also have the perimeter offense to match wits with Denver. They’re red hot and are fully capable of winning this game, so taking the points bakes in a little safety. | 7/10 |
Nuggets ML (-162) | Denver’s offense is borderline unstoppable, and their three-point shooting should cook in this matchup. I like their odds of righting the ship a bit on their home floor. | 6/10 |
Prop Play – Cam Johnson Over 2+ Made Threes (-141) | Johnson is a marksman from long range, and Boston doesn’t defend the three-point ball that well. He’s made 2+ threes in six of his last eight games, too. | 7/10 |
Celtics vs. Nuggets odds show sharp tension between Boston’s defense and Denver’s top-ranked offense. Track betting lines movement at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Denver Nuggets 114, Boston Celtics 112
My main Celtics vs. Nuggets prediction is that Denver steals a big win at home. Boston can heat up from long range, and they have the better defense, but they’re on the road against the top-scoring offense in The Association.
The Celtics could also be a bit fatigued after playing last night, while they simply don’t have anyone that can effectively stop Jokic. Add that all together, and I like Denver’s ML at -162.
Of course, there are solid Celtics vs. Nuggets picks that offer better value. Boston is very good against the spread and more than capable of winning, so I love them ATS here.
Lastly, Cam Johnson is playing a lot due to injuries for Denver, and all he does is shoot threes. He is making 41% of his long-range shots on the year, and he’s made 2+ threes in six of his last eight games. Boston’s perimeter defense has not been very good, so I think he has an amazing chance to hit at a solid price.
Want one more free Celtics vs. Nuggets bet? I’d bank on the Under. My Celtics vs. Nuggets score prediction has the total going Under, and that is thanks to Boston’s defense and league-low pace of play.
