Yankees vs. Royals Prediction & Best Bets (June 11, 2025)
We aren’t saying that we are going to pick the Yankees to win every time because they have Aaron Judge, but we’re not not saying that. Judge hit a ball literally out of the KC park in the first game of this three game series. It went a projected 469 feet; the longest homer at Kauffman Stadium maybe ever, but def this season. Judge feeds on lefty pitchers, and who’s the starting pitcher for the Royals tonight? Bubic, a leftie. That’s a bad omen for KC, in our opinion.
Game 2 is tonight at the aforementioned Kauffman Stadium, where NY beat them 10-2 in Game 1. The Royals are sending Kris Bubic (1.43 ERA) to the mound, and the Yankees are starting with Clarke Schmidt.
The Royals definitely don’t want a repeat of Game 1; they want to tie up the series before heading to Yankee Stadium. Will Bubic get a ball past Judge? Keep scrolling to see what we think will happen in Game 2, the stats, betting odds, and our best bets!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Wednesday, June 11; First pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET (6:40 p.m. CT)
- Venue: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to Watch: MLB Network, FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City (FDSKC), Amazon Prime Video
- Weather Forecast: Warm and mostly sunny with a high around 92 °F, low 69–70 °F; light SSW winds (~5‑10 mph); a minimal rain chance
Pitching Matchup
If you just looked at Kris Bubic’s ERA (1.43) and nothing else? He looks pretty untouchable. But that isn’t how baseball works, and the Yankees don’t swing like they care about your ERA anyway. Aaron Judge is prob still smiling after sending that ball into orbit in Game 1.
| Starter | Stats |
|---|---|
Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) | 2–3, 4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 50 K over 49 IP |
Kris Bubic (Royals) | 5–3, AL‑best 1.43 ERA, 79 K, strong changeup |
Clarke Schmidt is serviceable, but he’s not unhittable. He keeps righties in check (.561 OPS), but lefties give him trouble, so watch Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey try to take advantage of that. Schmidt has also had shorter outings as of late, and that could put pressure on the Yankees’ bullpen if he can’t get through five innings.
Kris Bubic is having a borderline dream season; he has a sick changeup, high strikeouts, and barely gives up runs. But before we carve his Cy Young plaque, his great numbers suggest a comedown might be heading his way. His expected ERA is in the mid-3s, and the Yankees aren’t the kind of team you want to test regression against. His pitches work the best against lineups that chase. New York is not that team.
The Yanks have faced lefties in 22 games this season, and they’re 17–5 in those games. Good luck, Kansas City.
Main Storylines
Here’s who and what we’re watching in game two of this 3-game series:
- Aaron Judge: This man is ridiculous right now, and we mean that as a compliment. He’s hitting .396 and leads the AL with 24 homers. That’s not a typo. And now he gets a lefty who lives off changeups? It could be another “Drop what you’re doing and watch” kind of night. Bubic has to be on from pitch one, or that ERA is going to balloon in real time.
- Paul Goldschmidt: He’s leading off, which feels kinda weird until you remember he crushes it at southpaw pitching. It isn’t a panic move; it’s matchup-based, and it gives the Yankees two absolute lefty killers at the top of the order. If you’re betting props, Goldschmidt total bases is definitely worth a look.
- Jac Caglianone: The rookie has been a rare bright spot for KC. Caglianone came out swinging earlier this month and is starting to feel at home. He’s got real power and doesn’t seem to be intimidated by big-league arms. If anyone’s going to make Schmidt pay? Could be Jac.
- KC Offense: The Royals’ offense can get on base, but they don’t hit. Their .253 team batting average looks OK until you realize the team ISO is .120. That means singles. Lots of them. Against a team like New York, that’s not going to cut it unless Bubic throws a perfect game and the bullpen holds.
Betting Odds & Analytics
Betting on this matchup? These are the latest odds and lines via BetMGM:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Yankees | -1.5 (+135) | -125 | Over 9 (+100) |
Royals | +1.5 (-160) | +105 | Under 9 (-120) |
- Historical Edge: Yankees lead season series 4–0
Best Bets
What are we banking on? Look below for the two best bets and two props that we think look good!
- Yankees Moneyline (-125) | Schmidt pitches better at home, and the Yankees’ lineup gives him way better support than Bubic is likely to get. New York’s offense should carry this one again.
- Over 9 Total Runs (+100) | Game 1 hit 12 runs, and with both teams swinging like crazy, this number isn’t high enough to stay away. The Yankees don’t need much help getting there on their own.
- Player Props
- Aaron Judge to Record an RBI: He’s hitting .396 with 24 homers and a .776 slugging percentage. Against a lefty? This is exactly the sort of matchup where he drives in at least one.
- Kris Bubic Under 5.5 Innings Pitched: This is his first real test on the road vs a top-tier lineup. If Judge or Goldschmidt connect early, Bubic might get yanked before the sixth inning.
In‑Game Watchpoints
There are a few things to keep your eye on once the game’s underway:
- First 3 innings: Does Kansas City scratch out early runs, or does Schmidt take control and keep traffic off the bases?
- Judge vs. Bubic: This is the marquee matchup right out of the gate. A first-inning RBI wouldn’t shock anyone.
- KC bullpen timing: If Bubic starts to slip, does the bullpen get called early again?
- Heat factor: With temps in the 90s, balls hit in the air late might carry farther than usual; it’s worth watching as the pitchers tucker out in the late innings.
Yankees vs. Royals: What to Expect Tonight
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 6 – Royals 4
Unless Kris Bubic morphs into peak Randy Johnson tonight? Aaron Judge is going to keep hitting the stitches off balls. Judge is on an absolute tear and is sending baseballs into parking lots like it’s no biggie. The Royals just don’t have enough at the plate or on the mound to trade shots with a Yankees team who are swinging like this.
Our Best Bets Recap
- Yankees Moneyline (-125): Better lineup, and Judge vs. a lefty is exactly what you want to bet into.
- Over 9 Runs (+100): Yankees can carry this total themselves, and KC should chip in enough.
- Aaron Judge to Record an RBI: He’s tearing up left-handed pitching and already has 60+ RBIs this season.
- Kris Bubic Under 5.5 IP: Tough matchup on the road, and he’s on a short leash. If he can’t keep the ball down, he’ll get the hooo before the sixth.
Feeling good about one our best bets? Take a look at these betting sites to find competitive odds and fast payouts for your winnings.
