New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction (June 23, 2025)
The Yankees are on their way to Cincinnati after losing two of three to Baltimore and dropping seven of their last 10 games.
On the pitching front, NY’s Allan Winans is making his MLB debut against Cincy’s Nick Lodolo, who’s held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and that’s mainly on the back of a high-spin slider and better fastball control.
Cincinnati’s offense has cooled off; they’ve had zero games with more than four runs since June 16, their on-base rate has dropped almost 20% from the beginning of this month, and they’ve grounded into 10 double plays in their last five games.
The Yankees are still counting on Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, both of whom have picked up extra-base hits in three of the last five, but there isn’t much coming from the bottom third of the lineup.
At Great American Ball Park, homers happen, and they happen a lot. And under hot and humid skies? It could pull the rug right out from under a rookie. If Winans or Lodolo lose the strike zone or give up a crooked inning, don’t be shocked if they’re yanked before the fifth inning.
Keep scrolling to see a preview of this matchup, the latest betting odds, and our three handpicked best bets!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Monday, June 23, at 7:10 pm ET
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast TV & Streaming: FDSN Ohio (FanDuel Sports Network), YES Network, Fubo
- Weather Forecast: Clear skies, with temps around 92°F
Starting Pitchers
We’ve got an MLB newbie on the mound for NY, and it’s more business as usual for the Reds. Here are the starting pitchers for the game:
Yankees: Allan Winans makes his MLB debut, so we’ll all be watching to see how he does at this level!
Reds: Southpaw Nick Lodolo will be throwing for Cincinnati; he’s 5–5 with a 3.71 ERA, and is certified consistent.
- Advantage: Experience obviously wins here; the edge goes to the Reds’ Lodolo over a rookie arm for the Yankees.
Team Form & Trends
How have NY and Cincinnati been playing lately? We have the stats and more below!
- The Yankees are 44–32 and have covered the spread in roughly 62% of games as the favorite. They’ve held up really well against teams that they’re expected to beat.
- The Reds sit at 39–38 with a 20–20 road ATS record. At home, about 42% of their games have gone over the total, and that’s lower than you’d expect for such a hitter-friendly park.
- Public betting is really lopsided; all of the tracked volume is backing the Yankees on the spread, and that kind of one-sided action doesn’t happen every day!
Betting Odds & Lines
Curious about how the odds and lines look? According to FanDuel, here are the latest:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Yankees | -1.5 (+126) | -124 | Over 10 (-110) |
Reds | +1.5 (-152) | +106 | Under 10 (-110) |
Our Best Bets
There are three angles that we think are the smartest plays for this interleague matchup; keep reading for our best bets and how confident we are in them.
1. Yankees –1.5 Run Line (+125)
Our Confidence Level: Medium–High
Why Do We Like It?
New York’s right-handed hitters (Judge, Stanton, and Torres) have all posted really strong numbers against lefty pitchers; each one is hitting above .500 in those spots. Reds’ starter Lodolo has allowed at least four earned runs in half of his last six appearances and hasn’t been able to pitch into late innings. Once he exits, Cincinnati turns to a bullpen that ranks near the bottom of the league in walks allowed and WHIP.
How It Plays Out: If the Yankees capitalize on early scoring chances and Lodolo doesn’t last long on the hill, they’ll have multiple innings against a vulnerable bullpen to build separation. They’ve won 25 games this season by two runs or more, which makes the run line a reasonable play when the matchup favors their splits.
Why it Might Be Risky: Rookie pitcher Allan Winans is making his debut. If he falters in the opening frames? New York could end up in a scoring race instead of with a lead, and that complicates the margin.
2. Over 9.5 Total Runs (–110)
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
Great American Ball Park has one of the highest home run rates in the league, especially when temperatures rise (it’s physics—hotter air = lower air density; lower density = less drag on the ball; less drag = balls go farther). And since Winans is a first-timer, that adds an unknown for NY, and Lodolo has been tagged for five or more earned runs in three of his last six starts. The Yankees have right-handed power bats that are made to take advantage of this park, and Cincinnati’s top of the order has shown more life lately, even when they’ve lost.
What to Watch: Check the lineups before betting! If Aaron Judge or Elly De La Cruz sit, the scoring potential takes a huge hit.
3. Yankees Moneyline (–124)
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
New York has been really reliable when they’re hitting against left-handed pitchers and currently sit top-five in OPS in those matchups. They’ve won 27 of the 40 games this season when favored by oddsmakers and control the game better when they have the lead. Lodolo’s inconsistencies make this a good spot to back the Yankees at a fair number.
What to Watch: Winans is a variable. If he can get through the early innings without being forced into long at-bats or putting runners on? This tips it in the Yankees’ direction!
Ready to get your bets in? Visit one of the top-rated betting sites to get competitive lines and bonuses to help get you started.
Yankees vs. Reds: What to Expect
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 6 – Reds 4
Nick Lodolo has the stronger track record heading in, but he’ll be pitching to a Yankees lineup that’s built to do work against lefties. Judge, Stanton, and Torres all hit for power from the right side, and they’ll have lots of decent chances at Great American Ball Park.
NY rookie Allan Winans gets his start in a really hitter-friendly environment, and that adds some risk to backing the Yankees outright. If he keeps the ball down and avoids long counts? He will give his team a chance, but it’s a tough place to pitch for anyone, let alone someone who has no big-league experience.
Both teams will press for early runs; it’s gonna be a scorcher, and the relievers could be called in to do some work. Lodolo’s ability to pitch into late innings will matter more than it usually does, and if the Yankees get traffic early, Cincinnati could be playing catch-up before the middle innings.
The Yankees have more lineup depth and stronger splits against left-handed pitching, and that could give them an advantage as soon as Lodolo starts facing the middle of the order. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been giving up runs in the sixth and seventh innings on the reg, and if that trend holds? It’s hard to imagine them matching New York’s scoring output over nine innings.
Betting Recap
- Yankees –1.5 (Medium–High confidence)
- Over 9.5 runs (Medium)
- Yankees ML (Medium)
If you’re putting some money on this one, think about betting on the Yankees to cover and the Over, but before you do, make sure the lineups confirm Judge and Soto are playing!
FYI: Always check for any late-breaking bullpen news/updates or lineup changes before you lock in your bets.
