New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction & Top Bets (June 13, 2025)
Yankees vs. Red Sox. Fenway Park. Friday night. If that sentence alone doesn’t make you hear angry Bahhstan and hard New York Brooklyn accents and the sound of a ball clanging off the Green Monster wall in left field (hit by Aaron Judge, obvi), you either don’t watch baseball or you’re dead inside.
New York is sitting pretty on top of the AL East, Judge is hitting the crap out of pretty much every ball he’s pitched, and they’ve been whooping teams in the last month. Boston hasn’t been having the season that the Yanks are having; BUT they’ve taken a few from the Yankees, so this one won’t be a formality.
We’ve got two southpaws on the mound: Garrett Crochet for the Sox and Ryan Yarbrough for the Yankees. It could be a pitch-to-standoff contest or batting practice. It all depends on which version of the pitchers show up.
It’s a long-standing rivalry, and it’ll be a good game. But who’s gonna win? What are the betting lines? And which bets make the most sense? We gotchu covered, so keep reading!
Game Details: Yankees vs. Red Sox
- Matchup: Yankees (42–25) vs. Red Sox (34–36)
- Date & Time: Friday, June 13; at 7:10 pm ET
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
- How to Watch: ESPN, MLB.tv, YES Network (local), NESN (local)
- Weather Forecast: Clear skies, 74°F at first pitch, light winds. It’s the best baseball weather!
Prediction Breakdown
40.3%
59.7%
According to GamblingSite.com
Series & Season Context
Boston took two of three when the teams met earlier this month, putting up 10 and 11 runs in back-to-back wins. The Yankees’ pitching staff didn’t look great, and the bullpen didn’t help much.
That being said, it didn’t really change the standings. New York is still on top of the AL East at 41–25. Boston’s nine games back at 34–36 in fourth place and looking like a .500 team that doesn’t know what it wants to be when it grows up.
Boston hit New York hard once, and now they get them at Fenway. We’ll see if that holds up, or if the Yankees play like they’re just there to rub in what the standings are.
Betting Odds
According to FanDuel, here are the odds and lines (as of June 13) for the game.
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Yankees | +1.5 (-184) | +140 | Over 8.5 (-110) |
Red Sox | -1.5 (+152) | -142 | Under 8.5 (-110) |
Probable Pitchers & Matchup Analytics
- Yankees: Ryan Yarbrough (LHP): 3–1, 4.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 45.1 IP
- Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (LHP): 6–4, 2.35 ERA, 110 K across 88 IP
- ESPN model: Boston win probability at 63%
Crochet’s strikeout rate gives Boston the pitching advantage; Yarbrough pitches to contact, and Fenway doesn’t reward that.
Main Storylines to Watch
There’s some drama in this plot: great batting, a rematch on the mound, and a lineup that’s missing one of its usual anchors. This is what we’re watching:
- Crochet vs. Judge, The Sequel: Garrett Crochet got Judge out three times in Boston’s 10–7 win earlier this month. That’s rare indeed. Judge is hitting .392 with 25 home runs and leads the league in slugging. If Crochet can hold him again? That changes the game.
- Yarbrough’s control in a hitter’s park: He allowed seven hits in his last start against Boston, and Fenway doesn’t leave a lot of room for soft contact to survive. Yarbrough has to keep the ball down and avoid long innings, which is something he hasn’t always managed to do against this lineup.
- Middle-of-the-order damage potential: Judge and Devers are both driving in runs at a high rate. Judge sits at 59 RBI, and Devers is nipping at his heels at 57. If either gets pitches to hit with men on, the game can change in a single inning.
- No Bregman for Boston: Boston’s lineup loses a right-handed bat with Bregman still out (quad), which means there’ll be less balance against Yarbrough and more pressure on Devers to produce against a lefty.
Our Best Bets
If you’re betting this one, it lines up better for Boston than the books are giving it credit for. Here’s what we think are the five best bets!
| Bet/Odds | Pick | Confidence | Why We Like It |
|---|---|---|---|
Red Sox +110 | ✅ Boston to win | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Crochet is dealing, Yankees strike out a ton, and Fenway plays to Boston’s side. |
Under 8.5 (-110) | ✅ Under | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Two strong lefties, one key bat missing, and fewer chances for big innings. |
Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Ks (-120) | ✅ Over | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | He struck out 10 Yankees last week. They haven’t adjusted. |
Aaron Judge HR Prop (+275) | ⚠️ Longshot | ⭐⭐ | Judge leads the league in HRs; he has a high ceiling, even if Crochet got him last time. |
Same-Game Parlay (Varies) | ✅ BOS ML + Crochet 7+ Ks + Under 9.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ | If Boston controls the tempo, this hits—a strong setup for a low-scoring win. |
This is the spot to fade the public’s love for the Yankees and ride with Boston. Crochet’s pitching with command, and this matchup leans toward a lower-scoring game with fewer big innings. Judge and Devers will probably trade blows, but the arms should keep things in check.
You can get any of the above picks now at one of the best online sportsbooks!
Yankees vs. Red Sox: Our Final Call
Final Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Yankees 2
Crochet has the advantage against a Yankees lineup that’s been striking out at a high rate. Judge is always the biggest concern, but Boston handled him pretty well in their last meeting.
If Crochet can get through five or six without giving up much? Boston’s bullpen is solid enough to hold the line. New York has been putting up runs, but this matchup could slow that down. Boston’s in a pretty good position to take this one at home!
