New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Top Bets (August 19, 2025)
While both teams have almost the same last five-game results, the New York Yankees have been the dominant team in their last 3 H2H clashes. That does ignite our curiosity for this game, and with the playoff positioning picking up steam, we do expect some fireworks in this late-season AL East clash.
One major question on our minds and likely on yours, too, is whether Carlos Rodón can dominate the Rays again. Or will the Rays flip the script with their right-hand bat?
Shane Baz is one of the notable Rays pitchers to look out for in this game. And we’ll see just how much brilliance he will bring into the game. Or, perhaps, the Yankees’ aggressive top-order will overshadow that brilliance. These and many more are what we’ll examine as we give our thoughts on the best bets to make and what the final scoreline will likely be.
Game Context and What’s at Stake
- Matchup: New York Yankees (67-57) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (61-64)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 19, 2025, at 7:10 PM ET
- Location: Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL (dome stadium, no weather factor)
- Standings Implication: Yankees: Currently 67–57, 3rd in AL East, 2.5 GB from 1st | Rays: 61–64, on the outside of the AL Wild Card picture looking in
- Momentum Check: The Yankees are on a 3-game winning streak against the St. Louis Cardinals. | The Rays did lose to the Giants in their last match, but secured wins in the last three matches before they clash with the Giants. There are visible struggles when it comes to scoring consistently.
- Why the Game Matters: This series has Wild Card implications, especially for the Yankees. If they secure a win against the Rays, they’ll be within striking distance of the division or WC #2.
Live Betting Odds
How do the numbers stack up in this matchup? Here are the latest odds and lines from ESPN BET:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
Run Line | -1.5 (+130) | +1.5 (-155) |
Total | Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125) |
Starting Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Carlos Rodón – LHP (Yankees)
- Record: 12–7 | ERA: 3.25 | WHIP: 1.10 | Strikeouts: 164
- Last 3 outings: 20 IP, 2 ER, 25 Ks – dominant form.
- Strength: Command vs. righties, dominant vs. non-power lineups.
- Tampa splits: Rays hitting just .211 vs. LHP in last 30 days.
Shane Baz – RHP (Rays)
- Record: 8–9 | ERA: 4.93 | WHIP: 1.34 | Strikeouts: 140
- Last 3 starts: 14 IP, 9 ER, 4 HR allowed – showing cracks.
- Concerts: Struggles with control and hard contact when behind in counts.
- Yankees slug .482 against RHP since the All-Star break.
Matchup Edge: We will lean more towards Rodón, as he has shown better consistency so far. He also has a higher strikeout upside and is in better form compared to Shane Baz.
Head-to-Head Season Series Trends
- 2025 Season Series: The Yankees have won seven out of the last 10 H2H clashes, leading the Rays 7-4 in their last clash.
- The Yankees have won three of the previous five clashes against Tampa. Even better, they have averaged 6.4 runs in those wins.
- The total has gone over in 4 out of the last 5 H2H matchups.
- Tropicana Field: Yankees 9-3 last 12 visits
Trend Insights: The New York Yankees have consistently out-hit and out-pitched the Tampa Bay Rays. And they’ve often done so late in games, which leaves us with the expectation of something similar in this clash.
Offensive Matchups and Key Players to Watch
New York Yankees Offense
The Yankees have an impressive ranking compared to the Rays. As of this writing, they have the following rankings:
- 5th in OBP (/335)
- 7th in HRs (170)
- 4th in runs scored in August
When you look at the key hitters as well, the Yankees have the upper hand going into the game. The key hitters for this game and their stats are as follows:
- Paul Goldschmidt: .342 AVG over the last 15 games
- Anthony Volpe: 3 HRs in his last 5 games
- Cody Bellinger: Known to clutch late-inning power
Tampa Bay Rays Offense
The team does have some catching up to do when it comes to rankings. As of this writing, their current ranking are as follows:
- 18th in runs per game
- 22nd in OPS (.702)
- Heavy platoon splits: The pattern indicates that the team struggles against LHPs like Rodón.
As for the key hitters, the Rays have the following:
- Yandy Díaz: He has .299 on the season. However, he has also shown visible struggles against LHPs, a weakness Carlos will likely exploit.
- Junior Caminero: Junior will likely be a power threat to the Yankees. But his high K-rate against sliders is concerning.
Strategic Insight: So far, the Yankees are more consistent. They are also better at driving runners in. The Rays, on the other hand, will likely rely more on solo shots and small ball to win the game.
Our Best Bets and Confidence Ratings
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Yankees ML | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) | The Yankees have superior starting pitching, and they play with better bats. |
Over 8.5 Runs | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | Recent performances indicate that both teams tend to trend over, particularly the New York Yankees. We can also say that about the Tampa Bay Rays, who trend over mostly late in games. |
Strikeout Prop | Rodón Over 5.5 Ks | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | The Rays have a record of striking out 10.3 per game in August. As such, we expect Rodón to capitalize on that, especially with the Rays showing weakness against LHPs. |
Rays Total Runs | Under 8.5 Team Total | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | Rodón’s pitch sequencing will likely eat up the bottom of Tampa’s order in the game. |
- Same Game Parlay Idea: Yankees ML + Rodón 5+ Ks + Over 7.5 | ⭐⭐½ (2.5/5)
Quick heads-up—odds can change fast as we get closer to first pitch, so it’s always smart to check the latest lines before you bet. And don’t forget to use one of the top sports betting sites to make sure you’re getting the best bang for your buck.
Rays in Trouble: Our Final Betting Verdict
Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 3
The Yankees undoubtedly have the superior form in this game, with an impressive 7-4 record in the season series against the Rays. You also get Rodón, who has dominated much of August and matches up well against the Rays’ LHP weakness.
On the other hand, the Rays have shown inconsistency in their last games. And, although Baz has his brilliant moments, he might not contribute much due to his current struggles. These struggles will most likely put the Rays at a disadvantage.
Finally, we expect the public money to lean more towards the Yankees. But you will also likely get solid value with parlay and prop angles.
