Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Top Betting Picks (July 21, 2025)
The Yankees are heading north to Toronto, and hoo boy, they need to win this. The Blue Jays (58-42) passed NY (55-44) in the AL East standings, so this series gives the Yanks a chance to catch up. The playoff race is tightening up, and all of these head-to-head games count!
Carlos Rodón will start for New York after giving up 11 earned runs in his last two starts. Kevin Gausman goes out to the mound for Toronto, and he’s fared better, holding opponents to under three runs in three of his last four outings.
Both clubs are on the hunt for the playoffs; the Jays have a 70-80% chance to make the postseason. And the Yankees? They’re currently in the first Wild Card spot!
Who’s gonna win this one? Keep scrolling to see the latest betting odds, a complete matchup breakdown, our picks for the four best bets, and some prop bet recs!
Game Details
- Matchup: New York Yankees (55-44) at the Toronto Blue Jays (58-41)
- Date & Time: Monday, July 21, at 7:07 pm ET (Rogers Centre local time)
- Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
- Weather Forecast: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 70s°F, with temps dropping into the 60s
- How to Watch: Sportsnet (Canada), YES Network (Yankees region), or streaming on MLB.tv
- Starting Pitchers: Yankees: Carlos Rodón (10–6, 3.08 ERA); Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (6–7, 4.19 ERA).
Betting Odds & Market Insight
Feel like betting on this ballgame? Below are the current odds and lines that DraftKings Sportsbook has posted:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Yankees | -1.5 (+139) | -120 | Over 8 (-119) |
Blue Jays | +1.5 (-170) | -102 | Under 8 (-102) |
Matchup Breakdown
The Yankees and Blue Jays are in the middle of the AL playoff race. Rodón gets the ball for New York, and Toronto is going with Gausman at home. What else matters besides the starters? The bullpen, offense, and recent trends!
Pitching match-up
Carlos Rodón has a 3.08 ERA and really good strikeout numbers! He’s limiting walks and keeping hitters from squaring him up, and has already logged six innings of two-run ball at Rogers Centre earlier this year.
Kevin Gausman has had a little bit more trouble in his home starts, which include a 5+ ERA in Toronto this season. If Rodón works ahead in counts? The Yankees should have the advantage in the pitching department.
Bullpen & Depth
- Yankees:
- Bullpen is thin and banged up: lefty Ryan Yarbrough (signed for depth) is on the 15‑day IL with an oblique strain, still throwing off flat ground.
- Other arms like Mark Leiter Jr., Fernando Cruz, and Yerry De los Santos are also on IL, limiting depth.
- Internal options (Allan Winans, Ian Hamilton, Scott Effross) show flashes but remain inconsistent and unproven for high-leverage situations.
- Blue Jays:
- Strong relief core: 6th‑best bullpen ERA in MLB at ~3.55, with 30 saves and a 1.20 WHIP
- Key arms: Chad Green (setup), Jeff Hoffman (23 saves), and Brendon Little, all reliable in mid‑high leverage.
- Depth extends beyond the back end – several arms have stepped up across midsummer innings..
Offense & Trends
- Blue Jays: Toronto is 12–3 this month and averaging 5.8 runs per game. Guerrero Jr. has four home runs in his last seven, and Springer’s OBP is finally headed up.
- Yankees: New York has won five of their last seven against Toronto. Judge has gone yard twice in his last five.
Our Best Bets
Ready for some best bets? We picked out the four best angles based on stats and models!
1. Blue Jays Moneyline (–102 on DraftKings)
Our Confidence Level: Medium-High
Why Do We Like It?
Toronto has won 12 of its last 15 games, and that includes five of seven against New York this season alone. Gausman has fared better when he’s at home, and the Yankees’ lineup hasn’t done a lot against him historically. Both clubs are in the playoff picture, but we trust the side with the stronger recent win rate and better late-inning arms!
2. Under 8 Total Runs (if line closes at 8)
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
Rodón has only allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of his last 11 starts. Gausman has kept hitters misreading his pitches at home despite his ERA. Three of Toronto’s last five wins have stayed under this number, so if this stays at 8? It’s playable! And you can hold out for 8.5 if you want a little more wiggle room.
3. First 5 Innings: Blue Jays -0.5
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
Toronto has scored first in 10 of its last 14 games. Gausman has opened well in his recent outings; he’s logged really clean first innings in 5 of 6. Betting on the first half means you can steer clear of bullpen drop-offs.
4. Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Total Bases
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
Bichette is 5-for-13 career vs. Rodón; he’s hitting .320 against left-handers this season, and he’s driven the offense this month with multi-hit games in three of his last six games.
Game Strategy & Prop Recs
Rodón and Gausman are both projected to stay under 3.5 earned runs through five, which puts early-inning unders and First 5 markets in play.
If you’re targeting bullpen props? Look at Jonathan Loáisiga for 3+ strikeouts or a hold if he enters with a lead; he’s logged at least 2 innings in 3 of his last 4 outings. Chad Green has picked up two holds in his last five appearances and could be a candidate again if Toronto is ahead late.
For hitters, you could think about late-game RBI props for lefties like Daulton Varsho, but only if Rodón is out by the sixth inning and the Yankees turn to a righty-heavy bullpen.
What to Watch Live
If you’re doing a little live betting, here’s what you should keep an eye on!
- Rodón’s pitch sequencing when Guerrero Jr. and Bichette are up with runners! Can he keep them from driving rallies?
- Gausman’s control during the first two times through the order. Why? Because he’s had some issues when the 4th and 5th innings roll around.
- Bullpen decisions around the sixth and seventh; Loáisiga and Green are always the likeliest candidates to handle pressure spots if either starter exits early.
Closing Line: Where to Place Your Bets
Final Score Prediction: Blue Jays 4, Yankees 2
Look, Toronto’s just been playing smarter baseball, plain and simple. They’re not making a lot of mistakes and getting more traffic on base. Gausman’s numbers at Rogers Centre are better than his road starts are, and the bullpen has held its own this month. Yes, Rodón’s been serviceable, but the Yankees’ lineup hasn’t clapped back in this matchup. The Jays have the advantage here, and we’re backing Toronto. Sorry, NY; it’s nothing personal!
Best Bets Recap
- Blue Jays Moneyline (–115): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
- Under 8 Total Runs: ⭐⭐⭐☆
- First 5 Innings: Blue Jays –0.5: ⭐⭐⭐☆
- Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Total Bases: ⭐⭐⭐☆
If you’re going with Toronto, hop on the number early! Home field advantage and their current form are baked into the price, but movement is always possible.
