Who Will Win the Oscars Best Picture? Updated Odds & Market Breakdown

The 2026 Golden Globes are in the rearview mirror, which means it is officially Oscars season. Now that we have some hardware being handed out at several awards and the rumor mill has run wild, we can start taking a serious look at the latest Academy Awards odds.

The red carpet doesn’t roll out for the 2026 Oscars until March 15th, so we still have time to research and formulate some winning wagers.

Several Oscars betting markets stand out, but the big one forever remains Best Picture. BetMGM has Best Picture odds available to the public, with one clear favorite pulling in ahead of the rest. But based on what went down at the Golden Globes and other awards shows, is there a better option for entertainment bettors?

Let’s scan the latest Best Picture betting odds, discuss the top favorite, and identify some viable pivots. I’ll even tough on some longshot bets, some Oscars betting tips, and wrap things up with a final Best Picture prediction.

Current Best Picture Odds (2026)

One Battle After Another comes in as the clear betting favorite to win Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards. The Leonardo DiCaprio vehicle is a riveting cat-and-mouse shakedown that starts in arguably contrived fashion, but sets up exceptional characters and takes you on a tense ride that keeps you strapped into your seat until the very end.

While it makes sense as the Best Picture favorite, there could be some wiggle room for an upset. It isn’t priced at -1000 or anything insane, after all, while it does have some weakness to its armor.

That puts top contender Sinners in play, especially when you consider that the Michael B. Jordan thriller earned an Oscars record 16 nominations.

‘SINNERS’ has broken history as the MOST-NOMINATED FILM OF ALL TIME at the Oscars with 16 nominations

See the full nominees list: https://t.co/IuSVQZPi7d pic.twitter.com/qUzPM49IQ0

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) January 22, 2026

Strength in numbers is certainly a thing, but none of that necessarily guarantees a Best Picture win.

Still, the Academy has spoken. They loved Sinners and if they enjoyed it enough to give it the most nominations for this year – nay, the most nominations of any movie of all-time – then you better believe it’s a threat.

In terms of Best Picture odds, nobody else comes close. This is probably One Battle After Another’s race to lose, and if it doesn’t win, Sinners is almost definitely the one to watch.

That said, at first glance, Hamnet and Marty Supreme do stand out as value bets that just might have legs. To get a better feel of the race to win the Best Picture award, let’s first dive into One Battle After Another’s case as a -300 favorite.

Why One Battle After Another is the Favorite

This was an exceptional movie from a tonal perspective, while the direction was fantastic and the acting was near-perfect. The only knock on this film was that the backstory was fairly unrealistic, while there are a few loose ends in the movie.

That said, we get a genre-blending action drama that takes you on a wild ride, while tugging at emotional strings and touching on relevant political commentary. It’s not your usual Best Picture contender, but that is also partially what makes it so good.

If you want to build a case for this movie, we need more than just numbers. Here is how it’s done at some key film festivals and other award shows:

• Critics’ Choice Award – Winner, Best Picture
• Chicago Film Critics Association Awards – Winner, Best Picture
• Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards – Winner, Best Picture
• Gotham Awards – Winner, Best Feature
• Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards – Winner, Best Picture
• National Board of Review, USA – Winner, Best Film
• New York Film Critics Circle Awards – Winner, Best Film
• Golden Globes – Winner, Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

There’s more to add to the list, but these are the biggest ones. One Battle After Another has been a regular contender for top movie, and it has knocked it out of the park against elite competition routinely over the past year.

All roads lead to this movie being the rightful favorite to win at the 2026 Oscars, and the odds back that up.

It’s not just the regular critics at award shows, either. RottenTomatoes.com features consensus ratings, with the critics producing a 94% score and regular viewers generating an 85% rating.

Critics and moviegoers alike loved this movie, and it is pulling into the Oscars with positive online feedback and reasonable momentum after winning again at the Golden Globes.

Why It Might Not Win

If you’re looking for some key takeaways as far as going against the grain, keep in mind that a -300 price doesn’t mean a win is a lock. This is the obvious frontrunner, but we have seen Oscars upsets before, and more are sure to come.

More specifically, the fact that Sinners garnered 16 nominations and comes in with the second-best odds to win Best Picture is somewhat alarming. If there’s a red flag for this bet, that’s it.

The other thing is, this movie doesn’t fit the mold of your usual Oscar-winning movie. The occasional oddball does get the nod, but there’s no denying that not everyone agrees that One Battle After Another checks the usual boxes of a Best Picture winner.

Top Best Picture Contenders for 2026

• Sinners (+330)
• Hamnet (+1000)
• Marty Supreme (+2500)

If you’re looking for a realistic Best Picture upset this year, it almost definitely is coming from these three movies, with Sinners pulling in as the very best bet.

Here’s a quick-hitting breakdown for why each of these Best Picture nominees has a shot, and why they probably will fall short:

Sinners

Sinners has a firm public backing thanks to its commercial success, high ratings at movie critic sites, and the record 16 Oscar nominations it received.

Hamnet

Hamnet is a distant third, but it also pulled in a stellar 11 Oscar nods and is directed by an Academy Award-winning director in Chloe Zhao. In terms of pedigree and production, it’s certainly a viable value bet.

Marty Supreme

Lastly, Marty Supreme is a compelling underdog story and is a loose biopic, which are two things the academy eats up. On top of that, it was well-received by critics and stars Oscar posterboy Timothee Chalamet, while the film has also received numerous nominations.

Each of these Best Picture contenders has a mild case to dethrone One Battle After Another as the top favorite. However, they also all have glaring weaknesses by comparison.

If you’re hunting for a contender worth betting on, Sinners is the only true standout. Historically, movies that led the way with the most total nominations have a very good chance to win Best Picture, and the buzz surrounding this movie is deafening.

Oscar’s Longshots with Serious Legs

• Bugonia (+6600)
• Frankenstein (+6600)

If you want Best Picture longshots that actually have a (slim) chance of winning, I’d start with Bugonia or Frankenstein. Both of these movies were helmed by brilliant directors, featuring massive star power that delivered exceptional acting performances, and were also beautifully shot.

On top of that, they were both critically and commercially well-received. They both have the framework needed to make a strong push, but their Best Picture odds leave a lot to be desired, making them poor bets to actually win.

But Oscars upsets do happen, and sometimes (albeit very rarely) a movie can come out of nowhere to shock the world. Here’s a quick case for both of these movies winning Best Picture this year:

Bugonia

For starters, Bugonia is quite the trip. You should be expecting that if you’re familiar with rising academy darling Yorgos Lanthimos, who probably should have won an Oscar for best director by now.

If you’re unfamiliar, buckle up, as Lanthimos is the king of tension-building. There are certainly points in Bugonia that are unrealistic or even corny, but the vast majority of it plays like a ticking time bomb toward impending doom – but not the kind you hope passes in a hurry.

This high-concept tale of two men seemingly trying to save the world from alien control is equal parts twisted and deeply emotional. Lanthimos succeeds in telling a powerful story here while engaging the audience in an epic dialogue duel between Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons.

The odds are long, but the story is captivating, well-directed, and perfectly acted.

Frankenstein

The situation is similar for Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, which naturally fits like a glove into the Best Picture category. Del Toro himself broke the “horror can’t win” when The Shape of Water got him some Oscars hardware, and some would say he offers a more compelling narrative in this film.

Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi combine their efforts to carry a methodical and nuanced spin on the classic tale, one that is both brooding with darkness, but also secure in emotional depth.

The main knock on Frankenstein was that it lacked punch and was a bit slower-moving than some would have preferred. However, it is arguably the best rendition of the story in a live-action film to date, and there’s nothing bad to say about the acting performances, direction, or storytelling.

The bummer? If you weren’t floored by del Toro’s big heave, then you might come away thinking he dropped the ball. I’d disagree, but there is a very strong argument that it didn’t deliver in the face of some legit competition.

Ultimately, neither of these movies are great bets at this point. The 10 Best Picture nominees are locked in, and they have middle-of-the-road odds, at best.

Frankenstein definitely aligns more with what the academy looks for in an Oscar winner, but sometimes it takes something wacky to win the Oscars voters over. Bugonia was subjectively the more engaging and engrossing film (and the one I personally enjoyed more), but it admittedly doesn’t fit the type of movie that generally claims this award.

Looking back at the odds of Best Picture winners in the past, we haven’t seen a plus-money movie win since Parasite (+173) back in 2020. That’s only five years, of course, while Green Book (+210) was a surprise winner the year prior, and Moonlight (+430) blew everyone away back in 2017.

If you want something crazy like Bugonia or Frankenstein – assuming their prices stay where they are – you’ve got another thing coming. While worthy of consideration in my book (and certainly deserving Oscars nominees), their odds are a virtual death sentence.

Key Note: You can bet on slight underdogs like Sinners, but a Best Picture winner has never been beyond +1000. In fact, the biggest recorded underdog is still Braveheart (+600) from 1996.

A Best Picture upset could be in play, but it won’t be coming from Bugonia or Frankenstein, even though they are films you absolutely should watch.

How the Best Picture Odds Got Here: Dissecting Awards Season Market Movement

The path to winning Best Picture is always an interesting one. The process typically starts early in the summer, when Best Picture betting odds drop with sometimes 100 different candidates.

The early Best Picture favorite often doesn’t stand the test of time, but typically, your winner is at least somewhere within the movies with the top 20 odds. Naturally, betting on the Best Picture winner well ahead of time is preferred, but it’s tough to know which movies will generate the most buzz, and which ones will actually snag hardware at the big award shows.

In fact, this year’s Best Picture favorite was not among the top 10 movies in terms of odds initially. That has everything to do with it not officially being released to theaters until August, but it went on to gain major steam and eventually dominate from there.

Before that happened, however, films like Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, Rental Family, Wicked For Good, and others cracked the top 10. Sentimental Value is still technically in play, but those other movies didn’t even get officially nominated.

Here’s what you need to keep in mind:

• Consider pouncing on early odds (lightly)
• Wait until after August for the second wave of bets
• Consider the final bet after the December 31st cut-off
• Note the award show’s success and online buzz

If you want maximum value, betting on who will win Best Picture when the odds first drop is suggested. The information is lean, and voters aren’t dead set on anything yet, though, so betting lightly is the way to go.

There is a second wave of films that tend to drop in July and August, which gives you a rough checkpoint to reassess the state of the race to win Best Picture. Some of the previous top contenders will stay strong, but you’ll notice others slowly begin to drop off.

Pay attention to smaller movie award shows and film festivals, and they can deliver nuggets of information, buzz, and actual winners that could contribute to your betting strategy.

Tip: Joker was never a big favorite to win until it started heating up after a win at the Venice Film Festival in 2019. It won the Golden Lion, however, and never looked back.

Huge and unexpected moments like that can flip the Best Picture race on its side. We saw something similar when One Battle After Another hit theaters in August, as it killed the hopes of several contenders and gave Sinners its first real, legitimate threat.

Naturally, tracking these big events are vital to your Best Picture betting success. Here are the big ones to note as the film award season heats up:

• Critics Choice Awards
• Screen Actors Guild Awards
• Golden Globes
• Producers Guild of America Awards

All of these can tip the hand of voters to a degree, but none of them have as high an alignment as the Producers Guild of America Awards.

Why? Because the voters are made up of like-minded producers who tend to align with what the academy likes. For the most part, the movie they back is the one that wins at the Oscars as well.

Don’t believe me? Their pick went on to win Best Picture in each of the last five years, and those picks have failed to align just 10 times since 1989.

There’s still time to process everything and finalize your bets, though, as the 2026 Producers Guild of America Awards don’t go down until February 28th.

Smart Best Picture Betting Angles

Now that you know who the top favorite to win Best Picture is, along with some viable contenders, here’s a quick checklist of Best Picture betting tips to keep in mind:

1. Note the PGA Award Winner – While not a foolproof strategy, these picks almost always align. The only issue? You have to wait very deep into the process, and it can hurt your chances of securing premium odds.
2. Place a Bet Early – Due to buzz and award show wins piecing together a fairly clear picture, it’s good to place eat Best Picture bets. Bet in waves, with your first bet when the original pricing drops, and then consider two more informed bets later in the year.
3. Track Nomination Breadth – Movies that pull a lot of nominations carry more weight, are seen more, and get more buzz. The more traction a film is gaining, the better its chances of striking gold at the Oscars.
4. Strong Narrative – A huge aspect to the voting process is narrative. Is there an iconic actor or director attached to a successful project? Perhaps the Academy can kill two birds with one stone by picking a worthy winner that also pays respect to a veteran talent.
5. Follow Buzz & News – Social media is rife with speculation and rumors, but online buzz can build out new narratives, prop up contenders, and give you clues as to which underdogs may have a fighting chance.

When placing early bets on who will win Best Picture, I’d juggle wagers that either make too much sense to ignore versus films you’re passionate about that return incredible value.

It’s much easier to get behind a movie you personally loved, especially if you also believe it has the legs to go the distance. The bigger the shot early on, the easier it is to hedge that original bet, too.

At the same time, particularly as the process advances month after month, do your best to remove personal bias as you work your way into a fresh bet. Try to establish legit contenders compared to weak challengers, and keep in mind what the Academy tends to prefer in Best Picture candidates.

Who Will Win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?

One Battle After Another (-300)

If I am not removing any personal bias, One Battle After Another is the easy pick. It was an extremely tense movie with superb acting and solid storytelling. It has also gained an insane amount of momentum over the last few months.

When looking at the movie itself, the director, the acting, and the content, it does check most of the boxes of an Oscar winner. It also is not that far behind Sinners with 13 nominations.

Even if I remove my own perception of the movie, it enters as the clear favorite according to prediction markets, it has positive momentum, and it has cleaned up on the awards circuit.

The only real challenge is Sinners. It’s a worthy foe, as it could stage the upset based off of cinematic aesthetics, storytelling, direction, and cultural impact. There is absolutely a world where it wins, and nobody should be mad about it.

But the best movie between these two is One Battle After Another. And despite there probably being a sizable gap, you’re getting it at a bit of a discount at its current -300 odds.