Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Prediction & Bets CBB (November 26th, 2025)
College basketball fans can dream of beaches and plenty of buckets going into Wednesday, where the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+16.5) will hope to upset the 24th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores.
Vandy is the clear betting favorite at most sportsbooks, coming in at a wild -4000. Bettors will want to work the point spread or target the game total, which does come in at a balmy 168.5.
Both of these teams are undefeated coming into this game, which helps kick off the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas.
Wondering what the best bet is for this game? I’ll break down the latest odds and key matchups, pointing out the best picks and my final Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-0) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 26th, at 12:00 pm ET
- Venue: Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Early Season Performance & Trends
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers were a pretty pedestrian team last year, going just 17-15. There is reason to believe they are ready to make a big leap this year, however, as they are scoring the ball at a high level through their first four games.
Western Kentucky is admittedly not being tested by elite competition, but they’ve gotten it done on the offensive end, putting up 82+ points in every game and 95+ in their last two.
The Hilltoppers aren’t putting up staggering numbers compared to the rest of college basketball, but their 88 points per game rank 46th in the nation, and they do a fantastic job getting to the free-throw line.
This is a very clean and disciplined team so far, too, as they have coughed up just 7.7 turnovers per contest (5th fewest).
Vanderbilt Commodores
If you were impressed by Western Kentucky’s offensive numbers, close your eyes. Vanderbilt’s offensive aptitude is blinding, as the Commodores have been insanely good to start the year.
Off to a scorching 5-0 start, Vandy has put up 92+ points in every single contest and 104+ in four of five. They are blowing everyone away, while executing an extremely balanced attack with several dangerous pieces in their lineup.
The Commodores understandably rank #1 in scoring (103 ppg) and are 3rd in average scoring margin. This is a team that loves to share the rock and will let it fly (and convert) from long range at will.
Vandy has yet to be truly tested, but they have the early makings of being one of the biggest surprises in college basketball.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
We have not witnessed this matchup many times, as Western Kentucky and Vanderbilt have only faced off twice. It’s a 1-1 series so far, with Vandy pulling out an 82-62 win the last time they met way back in 2010.
The only other game was in 2009 and there just isn’t anything tangible bettors can go off of here. Obviously Western Kentucky did beat them once before and kept the other game within 20, but this doesn’t tell us much.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Western Kentucky hasn’t proven to be nearly as deep or as explosive as Vanderbilt. They are very good at getting to the charity stripe (7th in free throw attempts and 11th in free throw makes), but their overall 72.6% rate at the line is not great.
The Hilltoppers obviously still want to work the ball inside and either get easy buckets or have their work pay off with trips to the line. So far, they have been solid inside (69th in two-point shooting %), but they have exhibited no real threat from long range.
Western Kentucky does have some bigs to turn to, but they haven’t been very productive, and the size they do have has not translated to much scoring or impressive defensive numbers.
This team leans heavily on guard Teagan Moore, who has proven to be an adept scorer (18.25 points per game) and rebounds well for his size, but does little else. Grant Newell (14.7 ppg) is the only other Hilltopper scoring in double figures, further detailing a top-heavy offense that lacks reliable depth.
On the bright side, Western Kentucky does the little things right. In addition to getting to the line regularly, they also take care of the basketball at an elite level.
Vanderbilt is obscenely good on offense. It’s anyone’s guess if it is sustainable, but I also tend to doubt that Western Kentucky is going to be the team that suddenly slows them down.
The Commodores lack elite size, and yet they dominate the glass and are crushing teams across the board. Guard Tyler Tanner paces their offense with 16 points per game, but he’s joined by five other players who regularly chip in 10+ points.
Vandy is very deep and extremely explosive, as they put up the 4th most long balls per contest, but also sink a lot of them (2nd most in the nation) while being pretty darn efficient (34th best three-point shooting percentage) at the same time.
Teams should not be able to shoot at this volume and sink shots so regularly, but Vanderbilt is defying logic and completely torching nets to start the year.
Their hot shooting ways may not last forever, but it’s led to the third most assists per game, the best assist/turnover ratio in the country, and the 5th best effective field goal percentage.
Vanderbilt doesn’t get to the free throw line, but that’s about the only thing they’re not doing at an elite level on offense right now.
Western Kentucky is giving up 77 points per game (201st), which isn’t great. They are also falling way short on the glass and at limiting teams across the board. The lone area they stand out on defense is in the steals department, where they average three per game (tied for 1st in all of college basketball).
Vanderbilt is giving up four fewer points per game, and they are a way more efficient defense as a whole. Opposing offenses do not get points easily despite the way Vanderbilt plays on offense, as the Commodores rank inside the top-30 in rebounds and assists allowed per game.
That said, Vandy isn’t stopping teams on the outside, and they’re letting teams get to the free-throw line as they please.
In terms of pace of play, Vanderbilt’s tendency to launch from deep plays into the country’s 68th fastest pace. They’re not setting pace records, but they are certainly not a slow offensive team, either.
Western Kentucky doesn’t let it fly like Vandy does, but they do push the pace (30th); something that could ultimately work against them in this matchup.
- Nothing For Free: Western Kentucky’s offense is built around interior scoring and getting to the free-throw line. If they can execute their system, they could get free points while Vanderbilt is looking for their scoring from long range.
- Three-Point Contest: On the flip side, Vanderbilt hoists like crazy, and they convert at an absurd level. Western Kentucky really doesn’t stop three-pointers well, and flat-out cannot keep up. Unless they find a way to limit Vanderbilt’s outside scoring – or somehow hit more threes than usual – they’ll be playing catch-up.
- Turnover Battle: We have two terrific teams when it comes to forcing turnovers, while neither of these teams are all that reckless with the ball. Something has to break here, though. Who protects the ball better and forces unnecessary turnovers more could gain a massive edge.
The Hilltoppers are 1-1 in this series all-time, but they haven’t fared well lately against top teams. They are specifically 0-3 in their last three run-ins with SEC teams.
They’ve had some experience against big schools, with differing results. Looking at last year alone, they kept their game with 8th-ranked Kentucky within 19 points, but then later got housed by almost 60 by Michigan.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt betting odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Western Kentucky | +18.5 (-112) | – | Over 168.5 (-110) |
Vanderbilt | -18.5 (-108) | – | Under 168.5 (-110) |
The point spread indicates Vandy is very much expected to win. They have the third-largest point differential in the country, too, so you could argue the spread is actually a little light.
The ML isn’t available at the moment, but it was -4000 the last time it was live. That very much suggests the Commodores are the likely winner.
The game total indicates a fast-paced game with shootout potential. The Over is favored, and seeing as Vanderbilt puts up a good chunk of the points on their own, it’s a promising bet at first glance.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The gut call is Vandy to win, Vandy to cover, and for the Over to hit. Western Kentucky has enough offensive output to contribute to the Over and potentially threaten the spread, but an outright winner feels like quite the reach.
I’ve seen this point spread as high as 19.5, too. If you can get it at 16.5 at DraftKings, Vandy feels like a really good bet to cover.
Situational Considerations
The neutral setting is the one cause for pause. Oddly enough, Vanderbilt has struggled in situations such as these. They have lost 18 of their last 24 games against non-conference teams at neutral venues.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 168.5 (-110) | Vandy puts up 103 points per game. If both of these teams hit their averages, we’re looking at almost 200 points. Even if they fall short, this Over is still going to be well within reach. Fast-paced teams with one that can explode from distance? Yeah, sign me up for that. | 8/10 |
Vanderbilt ATS -18.5 (-108) | Western Kentucky should help us get to the Over, but they aren’t a reliable team at all. They’ve beaten nobody of any significance to make us believe they can hang with what is currently the nation’s most explosive offense. | 8/10 |
Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt odds can shift quickly — track every line move, compare spreads and totals, and secure the best value before tip-off at the top football betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 99, Western Kentucky 79
My Vanderbilt vs. Western Kentucky prediction is that we get a lot of points, and the Hilltoppers fall just short of beating the spread.
This prediction has both teams coming shy of their season averages on offense, while giving Western Kentucky some credit for their disciplined nature and ability to get to the free-throw line.
That said, Vandy is really putting up some insane numbers, and their style of play could easily shove the Hilltoppers to the side at any moment. I can see this one getting out of control, but I am respecting Western Kentucky to a certain degree – just not enough to keep me from loving Vandy to cover.
