Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 5 Preview & Prediction (May 14, 2025)
The Timberwolves took full advantage of the short-handed Warriors, and pulled off a 117-110 win. This puts them in a nice position to wrap up the Western Conference semifinals in Game 5 back home in Minneapolis.
Golden State had to play without Steph Curry again in Game 4, and it showed. Their offense hit a brick wall in the third quarter with only 17 points, and then right as Anthony Edwards took control and clinched it for Minnesota.
What’ll happen in Game 5? Keep reading to find out our predictions for this do-or-die (for the Warriors, at least) matchup!
Game Snapshot
Where is it all going down? Below is the who, what, where, and when for Game 5:
- Matchup: Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
- Series Status: Timberwolves lead 3–1
- Date & Time: Wednesday, May 14 at 9:30 pm ET
- Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: TNT / truTV / Max
Prediction Breakdown
37.8%
62.2%
According to GamblingSite.com
Betting Odds (as of May 13)
Fanatics Sportsbook has the current odds listed as follows:
- Spread: Timberwolves -11.5
- Total Points (O/U): 203.5
- Moneyline: Warriors +475 | Timberwolves -750
- Win Probability: Timberwolves 65.4%, Warriors 34.6%
Storylines to Watch
A few themes are bubbling up under the surface going into Game 5, starting with Curry’s hammy injury and ending with Edwards becoming a one-man wrecking crew.
Golden State still doesn’t have its floor general, and that’s a big problem. Steph Curry is expected to miss Game 5 due to a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, which he sustained during Game 1 and has been sidelined since. The earliest he could return is reportedly May 18. Without him? The Warriors have been disjointed and flat from long range.
Curry himself acknowledged that he’s not ready to return, saying, “Even if I wanted to be Superman, I couldn’t.”
Coach Steve Kerr has tried to compensate for the loss of Curry by adjusting the pace and emphasizing rebounding, but the backcourt is missing its usual spark without the deadly shooter’s movement and shot gravity.
23-year-old Anthony Edwards logged his 13th career playoff game with 30-plus points during Game 4. According to the NBA, only four players had more of those before turning 24: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, and Luka Doncic. That’s an elite club to be a part of.
Edwards has his stamp all over this series. He’s averaging 27.6 points across the postseason and dropped 36 in Game 3. Defenders haven’t had a solution to his power and footwork. He’s attacking early in possessions and taking advantage of any matchup he wants—he’s driving the Timberwolves.
With Curry being out, the onus falls on players like Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga to step up offensively. Hield’s scoring has been inconsistent without Curry drawing defenders, making bench production the most important factor if the Warriors have any chance of staying alive in the series.
Minnesota’s defense has been really hard to crack. They’ve taken away clean perimeter looks and made life miserable for slashers.
The Wolves are limiting clean second chances and forcing Golden State into long, awkward possessions. And because Game 5 is at home, the intensity isn’t likely to fade. They’ve fed off the Target Center crowd before, and the Warriors have not looked comfy in that arena.
Key Stats & Trends
When you compare the numbers side-by-side, you can see that despite the Warriors’ offensive talent, Minnesota has kept up and sometimes pulled ahead in the stats that really matter. Take a look at the table to see what we mean:
| Category | Warriors | Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
Points/Game | 113.8 | 114.3 |
FG% | 45.1% | 46.8% |
3P% | 36.4% | 35.7% |
Rebounds/Game | 45.4 | 44.3 |
Assists/Game | 29.1 | 26.1 |
Last 5 Games | L3 | W3 |
Best Bets for Game 5
Golden State could be eliminated, and Minnesota is holding court at home, and the betting angles are pointing toward a closeout. Below are what look like the best bets for Game 5!
- Timberwolves -11.5 Spread – The Warriors have barely been able to tread water without Curry, and Minnesota has looked way more polished. Backing the Wolves to cover feels right given the stark difference in energy and execution.
- Under 203.5 Total Points – Both teams have had cold stretches offensively, and the Timberwolves have controlled the game flow with their defense. With Curry out and defensive pressure tightening? A low total isn’t out of the question.
- Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points – Edwards has been the player for Minnesota. He’s aggressive, composed, and scoring at will. He’s averaging 27.6 in the playoffs and should have another high-usage night with a chance to close it out at home.
- Buddy Hield Over 13.5 Points – Hield is averaging 17.2 over his last five games, and Golden State will need his shooting to stay in the series. The volume should be there, but it’s only a matter of how well he connects.
Final Whistle: Timberwolves Ready to Close It Out
Our Final Score Prediction
Timberwolves 113, Warriors 99
Check the sportsbooks for the latest odds before you place a bet! And don’t forget to gamble responsibly.
Minnesota now has an iron grip on the series and a chance to end it on their home court. They’ve made Golden State work for every decent look, jammed up the perimeter, and kept them off-kilter without Steph, their go-to scorer.
Golden State’s offense is pretty much lacking any reliable options right now. Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga will have to do way more than just contribute—they’ll need to carry stretches if the Warriors want to push this past Game 5. And so far, the bench hasn’t shown up enough to make that feel like a likely outcome.
Anthony Edwards has been a beast! He’s fearless, decisive, and relentless in attacking mismatches. You can expect him to have the ball in his hands early and often with the series on the line.
