USA vs. Haiti Prediction — Gold Cup Showdown (June 22, 2025)
The USA is up against Haiti in the final Group D match in the Gold Cup on Sunday. The Americans are 2–0 and can nab the top spot outright with a win. As for Haiti? They only have one point, are in third place, and need a win, plus Saudi Arabia has to lose to Panama in order for them to move on.
During the two matches, the U.S. has outshot opponents 26–7 and allowed only one goal. They’ve been direct and controlled possession without overextending themselves. Haiti’s had only four shots on target in the group and hasn’t scored since their opening game. They’ve also committed the second-most fouls in the tournament so far, which has killed any kind of rhythm in the midfield.
If the U.S. converts in the first half and keeps control through midfield? Haiti won’t have a way back into the match. They haven’t shown they can sustain attacks or pressure the back line without space to run. This is setting up as another low-scoring but one-sided result.
Look below for a preview of the game, betting odds, our best bets, and how confident we feel about our picks!
Match Details
- Matchup: USA vs. Haiti
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 22 at 7:00 pm ET (6:00 pm CT; 4:00 pm PT)
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- Broadcast: FS1 (ENG), TUDN/ViX (ESP)
- Tournament Stage: Final Group D match in the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup
What’s on the Line
The U.S. is looking to close out group play with three wins from three, and they haven’t conceded yet. A win locks them into first place, and they’ll get a more favorable draw going into the quarterfinals.
Haiti still has a chance to advance, but it’s a really slim chance. They need three points against the U.S. and a Panama win over Saudi Arabia to move up. Anything less? And they’re dunzo.
Stats & Recent Form
The U.S. has taken care of business with two wins, no goals conceded, and a comfy spot at the top of Group D. Haiti is still after its first win and hasn’t done enough in the final third to pressure their stronger opponents.
USA
- Beat Trinidad & Tobago 5–0, then followed with a 1–0 result over Saudi Arabia
- 13-match unbeaten streak in Gold Cup play
- Yet to allow a single goal in this tourney
- Cardoso and Tessmann have controlled midfield possession and limited opposing build-ups
Haiti
- Drew 1–1 with T&T after being behind in the first half
- Only two goals scored across group play so far
- Nazon and Guerrier have combined for most of the team’s shot volume
- Migné’s 4-4-2 has been compact in their own half, but they’ve struggled to move the ball forward once they get it back
Betting Odds & Lines
What are the betting odds and lines for this soccer game? Here’s what Caesar’s Sportsbook has:
- Moneyline: USA (-200), Haiti (+475), Draw (+320)
- Spread: USA -1.5 (+135), Haiti +1.5 (-180)
- Total Goals: O 2.5 (-160), U 2.5 (+125)
Our Best Bets
Look, there’s not a ton of value on the board, but we think the following are the three best bets that will hold up!
1. USA Moneyline (–210)
The U.S. hasn’t allowed a goal in group play and hasn’t looked stretched in either match. They’ve been really steady in midfield, stayed in control throughout, and haven’t let opponents get into risky spots. Haiti hasn’t created much of anything, so this should be another routine result.
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
2. Under 3 Total Goals
The stats back up that this won’t be a high-scoring game. The U.S. is disciplined in its buildup and rarely rushes numbers forward. Haiti hasn’t found space or decent chances in their two matches. Unless the U.S. scores twice by halftime? This stays under.
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
3. Malik Tillman to Score
Tillman has been super active in the final third and is getting plenty of on-ball activity near the goal. And with defenders leaning toward Wright and Cowell? Tillman’s been able to find space right behind them. He’s a solid option if you’re looking for a player prop!
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆
USA vs. Haiti Verdict: What to Expect on the Pitch
The U.S. has been in complete control in both of its previous games. They’ve kneecapped opponents to seven shots total and kept the ball in their attacking half for most of the games. They aren’t completing passes at an insane rate, but they’re not just moving it sideways, either. Busio and Tillman have been really aggressive once possession turns, and Cowell’s been involved early on in every buildup. When they lose the ball, they’ve been getting it back quickly; most of the threats they’ve faced haven’t made it past midfield.
Haiti conceded 17 shots to Trinidad & Tobago and spent most of the second half pinned deep. Their back line absorbed pressure but couldn’t clear consistently, and the midfield offered little support tracking runners. They’ve managed just four shots on target through two games, and once they’re forced to defend for extended stretches, gaps open between the lines. If that happens again, the U.S. will get numbers inside the box and start pulling Haiti’s back line out of position.
The best play here is the U.S. to win combined with under 3.5 goals. Haiti has managed a meager four shots on target during two games and hasn’t shown they can break down a structured back line.
The U.S. doesn’t need to run up the score; they just need three points. A 2–0 or 2–1 result matches up with the way both sides have played!
Our Final Score Prediction: USA 2 – 0 Haiti
The U.S. scores in the first half off a midfield turnover and adds a second in the final 20 minutes. Haiti hasn’t been able to hold possession near the goal or connect passes once they’re pushed back. USA wins this and moves on!
