USA vs. Guatemala Prediction & Top Betting Picks (July 2, 2025)
The stage has been set for a high-stakes semi-finals clash as the USA faces off against Guatemala in the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup
The big question here is whether or not the U.S. can continue its run to yet another Gold Cup final, or if Guatemala will be able to pull off another upset. Both teams have quite the momentum going into this match: USA recently managed to survive a thriller of a shootout against Costa Rica, while Guatemala won against Canada in a final shootout.
With a trip to the Gold Cup Final on July 6 in Houston at stake, this particular matchup is your classic David (Guatemala) vs. Goliath (USA) situation. History may favor the U.S., but it should be noted that Guatemala enters the hypothetical ring with significant momentum and a whole lot of belief.
Will that be enough for them to take on and defeat the U.S. in this semi-finals matchup? Keep reading to see match details, head-to-head comparisons, betting odds, and more!
Match Details & Stakes
- Matchup: USA vs. Guatemala
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, at 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT
- Location: Energizer Park, St. Louis, Missouri
- Broadcast: FS1 (ENG)
- Stage: Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinal
- Stakes: Winner will advance to the July 6 final at NRG Stadium in Houston
Recent Form & Head-to-Head
- USA: Unbeaten in group play (3–0–0), edged Costa Rica on penalties, strong knockout form; have won 4 of last 5 meetings with Guatemala.
- Guatemala: Has a lot of momentum from upset over Canada, stellar defense, first semi-finals since 1996.
- Head-to-head stats: USA leads 15–4–6; four of the last five U.S.–Guatemala games had 4+ goals.
Key Matchups & X-Factors
- Defensive solidity: Guatemala’s backline vs. U.S.’s vigorous attack—how does each respond?
- Goal scorers to watch: U.S. attackers like Malik Tillman and Diego Luna; Guatemala’s dynamic duo Rubio Rubin & Óscar Santis.
- Mental edge: U.S. penalty shootout experience vs. Guatemala’s pure underdog grit.
Tactical Breakdown
- USA (Pochettino): Likely to dominate possession, press high, and exploit flanks, but has the weak link of defensive lapses under pressure.
- Guatemala (Tena): Compact shape, opportunistic counter-attacks, and disciplined set-piece structure.
Prediction and Scoreline
Scoreline is calling that the U.S. will win by a one-goal margin (1–0 or 2–1), reflecting a tight, high-stakes contest.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Pick | Rationale | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
USA Moneyline (-350 to -420) | The U.S. is historically dominant versus Guatemala and has the extra home advantage for this matchup. | Medium-High (8/10) |
Under 2.5 Goals (–150 to –125) | Tight defenses are expected, as well as cautious semifinal tactics, which, historically, has made for low-scoring wins for the U.S. | Medium (7/10) |
USA -1.5 Goals (–120 to –125) | Confident about a U.S. win, but there is the risk of a narrow margin, which means lower confidence. | Medium (6/10) |
Both Teams to Score (+120 to +150) | The U.S. is likely to score goals, and Guatemala scored versus Canada; however, a defense-first clash may limit chances. | Low–Medium (5/10) |
Final Whistle: Our USA vs. Guatemala Prediction
Final Score Prediction: USA 2 — 0 Guatemala
- U.S. to strike one time in each half to gain control of the match.
- Guatemala holds firm early in the match but can’t break through an ever-so-disciplined American backline.
- To sum up, the U.S. holds the edge in talent and depth, while Guatemala’s run has been impressive but tested.
- Betting on this match? USA Moneyline is considered the safest bet, and under 2.5 goals offers value in a tense semifinal setup.
- Watch for early U.S. press, Guatemala’s counter-attacking chances, and set-piece defense.
Do you foresee another upset brewing? Let us know what your prediction is in the comments! Remember always bet responsibly, and don’t forget to check the latest betting odds at our top recommended sportsbooks.
