U.S. Open 2025 Preview: Odds, X-Factors & Best Bets at Oakmont

The U.S. Open returns to Oakmont Country Club from June 12–15, bringing elite fields back to one of the hardest courses in golf.

Located in a suburb outside of Pittsburgh along the Allegheny River, Oakmont is known for having an unforgiving layout; narrow fairways, thick rough, deep bunkers, and putting surfaces that play faster than any other major course. The fairways don’t hold many shots, and the players who can’t control trajectory and spin off the tee risk watching the ball run through into first cut or worse. Approach angles will be really limited, and the recovery options? Even more so.

Scottie Scheffler enters at +280 after winning three of his last four starts, including the PGA Championship. Bryson DeChambeau, last year’s champion, sits at +700 and is hoping to become the first back-to-back U.S. Open winner since Curtis Strange back in 1989.

The other contenders are no slouches! We’ve got Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa. LIV’s Joaquin Niemann has also played really well in the last few months and will attempt to convert his strong form into a major result.

There is $20 million on the line and zero room for error on this course—no pressure or anything! Keep scrolling to see the betting odds, the Oakmont’s course dynamics, our fav betting angles, and who we think has the best shot at winning this year’s U.S. Open title.

Event Details

• What & When: The 125th U.S. Open, June 12–15, 2025, at Oakmont Country Club, PA.
• Course Challenge: Par-70, 7,255 yards, famed for lightning-fast greens, punishing rough, 175 bunkers.
• U.S. Coverage: NBC, USA Network, Peacock streams; tee times start at 6 am ET
• International: Sky Sports (UK), TSN (Canada), Kayo/Fox Sports (Australia)
• Format: 156 players, cut to top 60 after Friday, 72-hole stroke play. Playoff: two-hole aggregate if it’s tied

Top Betting Odds

Scottie Sheffler is at the tippy top, and it’s not even close. But with Oakmont’s layout? There’s room for value below him, particularly among the players with control off the tee and a reliable short game.

Here are the odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (as of June 11).

Next Tier

Players to Watch

You can’t be a passenger at Oakmont. The course is one of the hardest out there, and anyone in contention will need to control trajectory, manage rollout, and survive on the greens. Below is who’s most likely to hold up under that kind of pressure.

The Must-Watchers

• Scottie Scheffler: He is playing the best and most complete golf of anyone in the field. Ball striking, scrambling, and scoring under par are all trending in his favor.
• Bryson DeChambeau: He might overpower parts of Oakmont that weren’t designed for his length. He’s the defending cham, and he’s renewed his short game confidence.
• Rory McIlroy: Rory is still after another major, but he’s looked better off the tee and could benefit if Oakmont favors high ball flights.
• Jon Rahm: Limited PGA Tour reps this year, but his major pedigree and control in firm conditions have kept him in the conversation.
• Xander Schauffele: He’s finished top 10 in six of the last seven U.S. Opens. Rarely plays himself out of contention.
• Collin Morikawa: Iron play sets him up well here. If his putter holds steady? He can stay on the board all weekend.

Sleeper Picks

• Joaquin Niemann: He’s been leading LIV in recent performances; he has strong tee-to-green form and less pressure than top-tier names.
• Shane Lowry: Runner-up at Oakmont in 2016. Lowry is excellent with mid-irons and knows how to handle firm setups.
• Justin Thomas: He’s having an inconsistent year, but his short game and experience in majors keep him relevant if he starts well.
• Ludvig Åberg: Explosive off the tee. If he stays away from big numbers early, he has the tools to make a move.
• Sepp Straka: Reliable with irons and steady under pressure. He’s made the weekend in six straight majors and tends to move up the board when scores stay above par.

Course Fit & Analytics

You have to be precise at Oakmont! Missed fairways bring in thick lies and blocked angles. Missed greens leave players with little to no margin to recover. The fairways are extremely narrow, the rough is thick, and the greens require precise pace and break reads. There’s no bailout zone; players who keep it in play, recover well around the green, and are steady with their putters usually separate from the field.

The following are the golfers who are built for this course’s layout:

• Scottie Scheffler: Top-tier ball striking and one of the most reliable scrambling profiles in the field. Hardly ever gives strokes away on approach or around the green.
• Bryson DeChambeau: Known for his striking power, but his placement off the tee has tightened up. He’s cut down on wasteful swings and handles mid-length par 4s better.
• Shane Lowry: Ranks really high in approach play and doesn’t force shots under pressure. His control from 150–200 yards fits what Oakmont calls for.
• Joaquin Niemann: Trending in the right direction with iron play. Keeps the ball in front of him and has gotten better at managing misses without compounding mistakes.

Our Best Bets

Time for our picks for best bets! The four are all based on recent performance and how each golfer’s game lines up with the Oakmont greens.

Our Winner Prediction

Who do we think will triumph on the Oakmont fairway? Look below!

Betting Strategy Tips

Oakmont has never had a “surprise” winner, but there’s still a lot of room to build a card with range! Shorter odds on elite players can be paired with position-based props and mid-range outright plays to manage risk across the four-day tourney.

• Outright Picks | Scheffler is the obvious top-line option, but Niemann and Lowry offer better payouts without going too far outside realistic course fits.
• Props to Consider
  • McIlroy vs. Field (H2H):  A solid fade spot if his off-the-tee control isn’t back.
  • First-Round Leader: Niemann’s aggressive style could show early if conditions are playable.
  • Top American Finisher: Schauffele and Thomas both profile really well here and come with better odds than Scheffler in this market.
• Bankroll Tip | Don’t stack outrights! Anchor them with one or two chalk plays, and then build around mid-range names and props to limit variance and stay in play through the weekend.

Prize Purse & Payout

• Estimated Total Purse: ~$21.5 million (same as 2024)
• Winner’s Share: ~$4.3 million
• Top 10 Payouts: They go down significantly with each position
• Payout Structure: Most of the prize money is distributed among the top finishers, and there’s a steep drop outside of the top five
• Notable: A finish inside the top 10 still takes home a nice paycheck, but there’s a huge separation between first and the rest

Final Thoughts: Who Will Conquer Oakmont?

The Oakmont course is super challenging in terms of l spacing, control, and decision-making. Every single hole puts a premium on precision, and hesitation causes dropped shots.

Scheffler is coming in with the most complete golf game in the field, but his odds don’t have much upside unless you’re confident he takes the win outright. DeChambeau has the distance and course management to stay near the top; his recent adjustments off the tee give him a real chance here.

Niemann and Lowry offer the stronger value. Both have been accurate off the tee, solid on approach, and have converted chances on similar green speeds. McIlroy, despite the name, hasn’t produced the kind of major results lately that justify his odds.

Our Final Prediction

Winner Pick: Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler has won three of his last four starts, and we haven’t seen him show one weakness this season. He’s in control off the tee, precise with his irons, and doesn’t make the mistakes on greens that trip up most of his fellow golfers.

If you can get him at +300 or better? Take the outright. And if the price drops, top-5 or head-to-head markets still offer value!