UFC 327 Method of Victory Predictions – Latest Odds, Props & Best Bets
UFC 327 is set up to be a glorious MMA event, as it boasts a bout for the vacant light heavyweight belt, as well as a litany of close matchups that are going to be incredibly difficult to call.
While some of these matchups are tough to call, I do think there is value to be had in predicting the method of victory for some of these bouts. And if you can get the inside track to how some of these fights might end, you can take a crack at even more value by isolating fighters to win in specific ways.
My UFC 327 method of victory predictions won’t apply to every single fight, as there simply isn’t value in targeting every single bout necessarily. I’ll start by listing the odds for each bout – including the odds for UFC 327 fights to go the distance – before singling out my top UFC 327 method of victory picks.
Latest UFC 327 Odds & Matchups
| Favorite | Underdog | Fight Goes the Distance – YES |
|---|---|---|
Jiri Prochazka (-115) | Carlos Ulberg (-102) | +250 |
Azamat Murzakanov (-205) | Paulo Costa (+170) | -105 |
Curtis Blaydes (-122) | Josh Hokit (+102) | +140 |
Dominick Reyes (-148) | Johnny Walker (+124) | +350 |
Nate Landwehr (-112) | Cub Swanson (-108) | +100 |
Aaron Pico (-285) | Patricio Pitbull (+230 | +120 |
Kevin Holland (-112) | Randy Brown (-108) | -115 |
Mateusz Gamrot (-205) | Esteban Ribovics (+170) | -225 |
Tatiana Suarez (-148) | Lupita Godinez (+124) | -400 |
Chris Padilla (-162) | Marquel Mederos (+136) | -225 |
Kelvin Gastelum (-278) | Vicente Luque (+225) | -110 |
Charles Radtke (-180) | Francisco Prado (+150) | +120 |
Above is a quick snapshot of the pricing ahead of UFC 327, which you can find at DraftKings. I’ve listed every single fight on the Prelims and Main Card, giving you a bird’s eye view of the odds for each bout.
On top of that, I’ve included the odds for each fight to go the distance. The fights where the odds are greater for the fight to end early are where we want to strike. You can obviously still bet on Decisions – especially when the odds are inviting and make sense – but for the best UFC 327 method of victory picks, we’ll be focusing on the bouts I think will score big finishes.
I’ll also suggest the bet that makes the most sense, whether it be a specific fighter’s method of victory, or a preferred method of victory bet for the match itself.
Now that you’ve digested the UFC 327 betting odds a bit, let’s quickly go over how betting on UFC method of victory wagers works – and why it’s so beneficial to sports bettors.
How to Bet Method of Victory
The method of victory betting is where sharp UFC bettors gain separation. The price of a fight doesn’t always reflect reality or the actual outcome, and there’s value baked into a lot of prices.
Sometimes they’re priced perfectly, and you’re stuck, but other times we can dig for a little extra value, while naturally assuming some risk.
Here’s when to strike with the UFC method of victory bets:
- When to Target KO/TKO – You’re chasing knockouts when one fighter has a clear striking or ground-and-pound edge. Target fighters who are explosive with a history of fast finishes, as well as appealing matchups where they’re facing volatile fighters who absorb a lot of damage and/or have displayed weak chins in the past.
- When Submissions Props Have Value – You’re looking for distinct grappling advantages, as well as the ability to counter effectively on the fly. When an opponent has weak takedown defense or isn’t as good at grappling or wrestling, you know a fighter has a clear path to a possible submission.
- When to Bet Decision – Low volume output is a clear sign that we’re on our way to a Decision, while some fighters simply lack power, tools, or the killer instinct to finish the job early. Slower-paced fighters featuring at least one fighter who isn’t overly aggressive tend to set up for grind-it-out bouts.
Best UFC 327 Method of Victory Bets
Now we’re to the meat and potatoes, as you’re here for the top UFC 327 method of victory picks. I’m not offering bets for every single match, as some pricing just isn’t advantageous.
Instead, I’m focusing on the very best method of victory bets headed into UFC 327, whether they feel like borderline locks or have odds too appealing to bypass.
Either way, the logic supports the respective fights heading in one distinct direction, and we’ll want to take advantage of it. With that, here are my top method of victory picks for UFC 327:
Jiri Prochazka via KO/TKO (+140)
If you want a safe bet for this fight, I do love the straight-up KO/TKO pick for either side at -300. There is very little risk involved with that, as neither of these guys are big threats to win via submission, and I can’t imagine they both get out of a five-round fight without landing a KO.
Someone’s head is going to hit the mat in this one. You can bet on the ultra-explosive Carlos Ulberg at +170, and I wouldn’t hate you for it. He loses three inches in reach in this spot, and he’s way less experienced than Jiri, but he has more power and is technically sound.
Ulberg can close distance quickly, and it’s not impossible to imagine him overwhelming Prochazka much in the same way that Alex Pereira did in two KO wins.
But Prochazka otherwise checks every possible box here. I break it down more in my Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg prediction breakdown, but the reality is he’s way more experienced, more versatile, and knows how to navigate dangerous strikers.
Prochazka may take a couple of rounds to set things up, but in the end, he’s going to be the one saying “night, night”. It feels weird to bet on an Ulberg KO loss, but this is a pretty big jump in opponent level, and it’s fair to wonder if he’s truly ready for it.
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paolo Costa via KO/TKO (-110)
You can shoot for more upside with Azamat (+200) if you’d like, but we’re getting almost even money here. I’d rather just aggressively target this, as there’s obviously always some risk with the power Costa has displayed in the past.
Consider it a mild attempt at baking some safety into this bet, but I can tell you that I don’t see this one ending via Decision.
The 36-year-old Murzakanov has never lost a professional MMA fight, while he has a lust for blood with 13 finishes in 16 career bouts.
Most of the damage has come with his fists, as he’s scored 12 KO wins (75% KO rate) and he’s kept it rolling in the UFC (6-0 with 5 knockouts).
Paolo Costo is a worthy foe at 15-4, but he’s 34 now and doesn’t look like the same dynamic striker he was when he was first on the rise. The finishing ability is still technically there (11 career KOs), while it’s worth noting that he’s only been finished once in his entire career.
But there’s a catch. We’ve seen who Costa is at middleweight. Here, he’s moving up to 205 pounds and fighting as a light heavyweight. That may very well boost his cardio and allow him to bulk up more to absorb beatings; or it could put him against more power that delivers greater impact.
I’m willing to bet on that happening, but it’s not just about the jump in weight. It’s also about Azamat being big on pressure and offering superior boxing. He’s going to unleash in this spot, and assuming he can get in tight and avoid fighting at range, it’s going to be too much for Costa to handle.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque via Decision (-110)
Here’s another UFC 327 method of victory bet where I don’t feel the need to pick a side. You don’t even need the winner here, yet you’re getting basically even money.
The beauty here is both of these guys are aging and losing their ability to end fights early. We also know who Kelvin Gastelum is; he’s tough as nails, and he can both unleash and absorb loads of damage. But he has just six career knockouts, and he hasn’t ended a fight early with his fists since 2017.
Obviously, things can change, while a declining Luque could get out-striked and succumb to Gastelum’s superior power. But I don’t think that’s anything close to a lock. Luque does offer explosiveness and submission ability on the other side, but he hasn’t been KO’d since 2020, and he’s just 2-5 over his last seven fights.
Ultimately, I expect the heavily favored Gastelum to control the pace of this fight, peck away at Luque, and keep him from surprising him on the mat. That should lead to this thing going the distance, and we can basically back Gastelum through proxy by taking this bet instead of targeting him at his egregious -278 price tag.
Dominick Reyes via KO/TKO (-105)
Ideally, we’re getting this one at plus money, as Johnny Walker isn’t exactly a safe matchup. However, this fight is heavily favored (-450) to end via knockout, and Walker isn’t nearly as reliable to win via KO at +215.
I think we’re still getting really solid value here. Dominick Reyes is arguably being disrespected a bit with just a -148 moneyline, and while that price is plenty fine as is, we can assume a little bit of risk to get an almost even money bet once again.
Reyes got stunned by Carlos Ulberg last time out, but there’s no shame in that. He was red hot prior to that, as he took out Nikita Krylov, Anthony Smith, and Dustin Jacoby – all via KO. It’s quite arguable they’re all better than Johnny Walker, who has a middling 22-9 record with six career KO defeats.
This is a classic get-right spot for the superior Reyes, who admittedly just doesn’t let fights go very long. Even if he’s on the losing side, each of his last seven bouts failed to get into the third round.
Walker is a threat on the other side, and he does have a reach advantage. However, Reyes knows how to pick his spots better, is the more dangerous technical striker, and he’s run into better strikers than Walker. It’s not a safe spot, but value is the name of the game.
Considering how this fight is (accurately) projected and where Reyes’ ML is, it’s a calculated risk to bet on him winning via knockout.
Curtis Blaydes via KO/TKO (+225)
Lastly, let’s cap my list of UFC 327 method of victory picks off with a high upside bet. There is an understandable risk here, as Josh Hokit is undefeated (8-0) and could easily win this fight.
You can make a pretty valid case that Hokit is better on the feet, too, while he’s just as skilled in wrestling. My issue is the experience gap. Blaydes can be had if he stands and throws, and his takedown defense is weak. However, he loves the fight to get to the ground, and he still packs a punch, himself.
There is a massive reach edge here for Blayes as well. I think the combination of reach, wrestling, and experience tilt the scales for Blaydes to remind us all that he’s still a problem in the heavyweight division.
Hokit is 8-0 and his star is rising. But he hasn’t faced anyone as good as Blaydes yet. Look for him to hit some snags, have his gas tank challenged, and ultimately succumb to Blaydes via punches on the ground.
Common MMA Method of Victory Betting Mistakes
Betting on the method of victory can be incredibly profitable, but doing so successfully still comes down to correctly predicting how fighters match up.
Even if you don’t go all the way and pick an isolated finish for one fighter, you still need to assess how these two square up and decide the most likely path for the bout to take.
Not doing that is one huge mistake bettors make when targeting this type of bet. Here are a few more:
- Forcing a method bet on every single fight
- Forcing a method of victory wager that just isn’t there
- Blindly betting KO props on fighters with knockout wins
- Ignoring durability & recovery
- Misreading grappling matchups
- Overvaluing highlight reel fighters
- Not considering fight pace, angles, and reach
- Targeting betting favorites by finish automatically
These are just some of the grave mistakes you can make when betting on method of victory wagers. If you put in the time and research, however, you’ll avoid almost all of them.
There may be even more mistakes to try to avoid, but the point is to know what (and who) you’re backing, and why.
Perhaps the most common mistake is bettors watching highlight reels or box score watching. If you only look at a fighter’s best moments, strengths, and record or stats without context, you’re doing yourself a great disservice.
The Best UFC 327 Method of Victory Pick to Target
Dominick Reyes via KO/TKO (-105)
I like all five of my method of victory picks for UFC 327. Some offer more upside, and a few are of the safety variety.
No method of victory bet – or any MMA bet ever – is truly safe, but if I had to pick one over all the others, it’s easily Dominick Reyes to take out Johnny Walker via KO.
Reyes got erased by Carlos Ulberg in his last fight, but I’m not about to bet against this mad man just yet. He’s had some brutal losses before, so he knows how to mentally recover and bounce back. He was running hot before that loss, and Ulberg is a very good striker. Look for Reyes to get it going and take advantage of it at -105 at DraftKings.
Overall, go with your gut. Just make sure the method of victory picks you roll with mesh well with the fight odds, as well as your research.
