UFC 319 Betting Picks and Predictions – Full Fight Card Breakdown
Nobody saw it coming a week ago, but UFC 319? It’s looking like it’s the last of its kind. The UFC’s Paramount and CBS deal goes through next year, so the pay-per-view era is almost dead and gone; maybe a few will sneak through, but this model’s days are numbered.
But that’s a next year problem, because it’s still fight night on Saturday! The UFC is back in Chicago for the first time in over six years, taking over the United Center with a stacked pay-per-view card headlined by one of the year’s most anticipated matchups.
The headliner is a boogeyman fight; Khamzat Chimaev, who is the most intimidating middleweight contender we’ve seen in a long time (and is undefeated), will finally get his shot at the 185-pound title against reigning champion Dricus Du Plessis. And since Du Plessis asked for this fight? He wants it bad. Or maybe he’s a sadist, we aren’t sure yet.
We’ll find out when they step into the Octagon!
There are four high-profile main card fights and an absolutely stacked prelim slate, making UFC 319 one of the most competitive cards of the year.
What should you be watching for when the fighters in the Octagon kick off (literally, they’ll kick each other)? We’ve got the goods on what’s going down: the full fight card, the main event breakdown, live betting odds, and what we think are the five best bets for all of the bloody action!
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 319
- When: Saturday, August 16
- Where: United Center in Chicago, Illinois
- Schedule: Early Prelims: ~6:00 pm ET; Prelims: ~8:00 pm ET; Main Card (PPV $79.99): ~10:00 pm ET via ESPN+
- How to Watch: Streaming on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+
- Broadcast Team Highlights: Joe Rogan is back on the mic with Jon Anik and Daniel Cormier. At the desk, Dustin Poirier joins Anthony Smith, Chael Sonnen, and Michael Chiesa, hosted by Brendan Fitzgerald. Charli Arnolt and Din Thomas will be on the ground for live coverage from the United Center.
- See the full UFC 319 card
Full Fight Card
Chicago’s getting a fully loaded lineup for UFC 319! There’s a title fight at the top, a high-stakes featherweight co-main, and a sprinkling of proven contenders and rising names facing off. Here’s how the night is gonna look:
Main Card (PPV)
- Middleweight Title: Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Khamzat Chimaev
- Featherweight Co-Main: Aaron Pico vs. Lerone Murphy
- Welterweight: Carlos Prates vs. Geoff Neal
- Middleweight: Michael Page vs. Jared Cannonie
- Flyweight: Kai Asakura vs. Tim Elliott
Key Prelim Bouts
- Middleweight: Michał Oleksiejczuk vs. Gerald Meerschaert
- Women’s Strawweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez
- Lightweight: Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper
- Lightweight: Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose
- Middleweight: Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
- Women’s Flyweight: Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa
Prelim Note
- The lightweight prelim bout between King Green and Diego Ferreira was scratched due to an injury to Green, and no replacement has been arranged for Ferreira.
- In one of the most rapid turnarounds in recent memory, Baysangur Susurkaev, who clinched his UFC contract with a body-shot KO on Dana White’s Contender Series, hopped into the UFC 319 lineup only three days later to face Eric Nolan.
Main Event Breakdown: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago won’t be getting a gentlemanly title fight. It’s gonna be a street brawl between two men who want to break each other in half. Dricus du Plessis is defending his belt and daring Khamzat Chimaev to go hard until one of them gasses out.
Chimaev’s unbeaten and mean as heck, but he’s never been dragged into the kind of championship rounds that du Plessis lives for.
- Du Plessis took the middleweight crown by edging Sean Strickland via split decision at UFC 297, then wrenched it out of Israel Adesanya’s hands with a brutal Round 4 face-crank at UFC 305.
- He’s on a nine-fight UFC winning streak, tying Chris Weidman for the third-longest in division history, and he’s made a habit of breaking opponents in Rounds 3 and 4, when their stamina literally bleeds out of their bodies.
- Chimaev is 14–0, bodying elite names in the first half of his fights.
- He wrecked Robert Whittaker in Round 1, bullied Kamaru Usman through three rounds, and took out Gerald Meerschaert in 17 seconds.
- Du Plessis does his best fighting past the 15-minute mark; Chimaev has never been forced to go that long.
- The champ’s taunt? Du Plessis said to Chimaev,
- “Let’s go full speed, see who quits.”
- Expert Chris Weidman’s call? Du Plessis, because if Chimaev can’t take him out by Round 3, Weidman says the belt isn’t going anywhere.
Betting Odds Snapshot
Throwing your metaphorical hat in the octagon and betting on this fight? Check out the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:
- Previous lines:
- Du Plessis +180 | Chimaev –235 — Chimaev –220 | Du Plessis +180
- Pico –195 | Murphy +165
- Prates –260 | Neal +210
- Page –180 | Cannonier +150
Our 5 Best Bets
#1 Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
- Bet: Du Plessis via decision or late stoppage
- Odds: Du Plessis +198 vs. Chimaev –240
- Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
Du Plessis has finished or outpointed elite opponents past the 15-minute mark, and Chimaev’s never been there. If the challenger can’t put him away early? The champion’s output and attrition game will take over.
#2 Aaron Pico vs. Lerone Murphy
- Bet: Lerone Murphy moneyline
- Odds: Murphy +146 vs. Pico –174
- Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
Murphy’s patient boxing, counter-timing, and his ability to sprawl off the first shot can force Pico into really ugly stand-up exchanges where Murphy’s jab and range control will win rounds.
#3 Carlos Prates vs. Geoff Neal
- Bet: Over 2.5 rounds or Neal ML
- Odds: Prates –215 vs. Neal +180
- Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
Neal’s taken a lot of heavy shots from bigger punchers without breaking, and Prates usually builds his offense in deliberate phases. If Neal commands the pocket and forces clinch breaks, this can reach the scorecards, and Neal is capable of winning late rounds.
#4 Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page
- Bet: Cannonier ML
- Odds: Cannonier +162 vs. Page –194
- Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
Cannonier’s forward pressure cuts off the cage and forces Page into bad spots. And once that space disappears? Cannonier’s inside work and physicality can sway the judges or end the fight outright.
#5 Baisangur Susurkaev (Late Addition at UFC Prelims)
- Bet: Susurkaev to finish (any method)
- Odds: Susurkaev -950 vs Nolan +610 (Not listed yet, but there’s high value due to a lot of hype and low market exposure)
- Our Confidence Level: 5/10
Why Do We Like It?
Only three days after a contract-winning knockout on Contender Series, Susurkaev goes in ready to push a breakneck opening. His pace and shot selection in early rounds can overwhelm an opponent who is still trying to adapt to the matchup.
Additional Props & Parlay Ideas
In addition to our best bets, we’ve got a few additional prop bets and parlay picks!
- Chimaev KO/TKO: Markets are leaning toward a Chimaev finish, with KO/TKO sitting around -175 in some previews. Given Du Plessis’ durability, that price might be inflated compared to other angles.
- Underdog Shots: Elliot Round 1 submission at +1800 is worth a sprinkle against an opponent who’s vulnerable to early grappling pressure. Du Plessis via split/majority decision at +1600 plays into the possibility of a drawn-out, competitive fight. Murphy on a +3.5 points spread can cover a close loss or narrow win.
- Parlay Play: A three-leg ticket linking Du Plessis ML, a Neal-related outcome, and one additional confident pick lines up at about +189.
How to Watch Recap
- Early Prelims: ~6:00 pm ET
- Prelims: ~8:00 pm ET
- Main Card (PPV): ~10:00 pm ET, and is available on ESPN+ PPV in the U.S.
- Coverage: Early bouts will stream on ESPN+, Disney+, and ESPN; the main card requires a purchase via ESPN+ (U.S. viewers)
Endurance vs. Explosiveness—Who Wins?
If Du Plessis can survive the opening round on his feet, make Chimaev work, and chip away at him, this fight starts to go his way. Chimaev’s opening blitz is still the most violent start in all of the UFC, and Du Plessis knowing it’s coming doesn’t make it any easier to handle.
The question is whether Chimaev can toss Du Plessis around the cage the way he has with most opponents. That’s not a small task; it’s more like trying to pick up and throw a refrigerator. And the size edge Chimaev showed when they crossed paths in Chicago? That’s hard to set aside.
For Du Plessis, the plan is a simple one: fight like Du Plessis. His awkward, unpredictable style has stolen control of fights in a second, even when he looks drained after Round 1. But he somehow ramps up in the later rounds when others tire. And in true Du Plessis fashion, the most unexpected outcome, like a submission over Chimaev, could be what happens.
- Stakes: Du Plessis’ ability to push a fight into the late rounds against Chimaev’s opening-round aggression.
- Betting Angle: Du Plessis has pricing appeal, and there are a few live underdogs that are worth a look.
- Variables: Short-notice replacements and bout cancellations mean the matchups can be unpredictable.
- Reminder: Bet responsibly and tune in for the post-fight analysis!
Best Bets Recap
- Dricus du Plessis via decision or Round 4–5 stoppage: +198ML | Confidence: 7/10
- Lerone Murphy ML: +146| Confidence: 6/10
- Over 2.5 rounds or Geoff Neal ML: Prates –215 / Neal +180| Confidence: 6/10
- Jared Cannonier ML: +162| Confidence: 7/10
- Baysangur Susurkaev to finish (any method): Odds TBD | Confidence: 5/10
Our Final Best Bet: It’s Dricus du Plessis ML; his stamina and proven five-round output make this the play! Our confidence level for this bet is a solid 7/10.
Stay ahead of the action—odds can shift quickly as fight night approaches, so check the latest lines before locking in your wagers. For maximum value, explore our list of top-rated sports betting sites to find trusted platforms with great odds and fast payouts.
